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Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Padsin05 » Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:39 pm

draft Best Player Available in the first 10 rounds. Worry about filing out your roster after that, someone will get hurt, some team will be lacking a position, and thats where you can capitalize. Last year for example I turned Fielder into Halladay and ARod after the draft. Find the guy who ends up with Helton/Laroche at 1B for example and go after his best guys
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby AussieDodger » Sat Mar 20, 2010 10:27 am

silverZ wrote:
smoovethug wrote:When in doubt, draft Rajai Davis


Fixed.


Double fixed.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Mar 20, 2010 10:15 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
silverZ wrote:
smoovethug wrote:When in doubt, draft Dexter Fowler


Fixed.


Double fixed.


Fixed for the third and last time.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby duckbillgates » Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:31 pm

• Know what makes your league different.
Most of what you (and your opponents) will read is based on a 12-team, 5x5. If your league has different categories or roster requirement quirks), figure out how this affects value and look for bargains accordingly.

• Tier your rankings. Tier your rankings. Tier your rankings.
If you need a shortstop, you need to know that whether four similarly valued shortstops are available, or whether there is one gem left before a dropoff.

• Know your weaknesses, both during and after a draft.
If you got left out on a position run and have a borderline starter at 3B, don't be afraid to hedge your bets and take another one a few rounds later. If one emerges, the other can hit waivers.

• Understand roto.
A lot of people play in these leagues and still can't figure out how to play this over the season and balance a team. A Juan Pierre/Adam Dunn pairing could deliver a similar value to a pair of 5-category OFs at less cost.

• In roto, steer your team like an ocean-liner.
No panic, no fire sale, no sudden moves. If you start to trail in a stat category, look for a way to address with bench moves and waiver wire first. Steer in the right direction, just slowly.

• Understand Average Draft Position.
This year, I've got a tiered rankings sheet with the round of each player's ADP in parenthesis after their name. If there's a player I really want to land and his average draft round is coming up, I can go early and snag him. If I've got a guy who is one of several in the same tier, but his ADP is lower, I know I can probably wait a round or two and he'll still be there.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby West » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:59 pm

I try to own at least one Yankee a year.

As I play with a bunch of New Englanders, Yankees tend to be a tad underrated in our leagues.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Sticky Spice » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:43 pm

Okay, I'll finally bite. It's funny to see some of the responses to a thread entitled "Simple Rules..."

In a deep league, it's all about plate appearances. Fill your offense with full-timers and you'll be tough to beat. Good luck with pitching.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Joe Mauer » Sat Apr 03, 2010 1:31 am

1. The most important offensive category to draft is HR. Make sure you are gonna be one of the top 3 teams in your league in HR's. Why you ask? When players hit lots of HR's they get lots of RBI's and good to great runs. That's three categories folks. If you end up getting BA and/or some SB with that power, that is the icing. But BA and especially SB should not be the top ready you draft a player.
2. For starting pitchers, it's all about the WHIP and the K's production. Everything else has way too much that relys on other factors (ERA and W's).
3. For closers, look for ones with relatively secure to very secure jobs that pitch for crappy teams. People don't get this, but the semi-bad teams typically on average have more "save" opportunities. Soria is a great stud to target year in and year out. Dotel is excellent for this season. Two examples.
4. Don't get drunk during your draft/auction. Sure, getting drunk is fun, but it also will likely net you a team that will not be fun to watch.
5. Get in one good league that requires you to have a minor league system. This will educate you on the up and coming talent years before they become major league ready and will increase your knowledge and thus make you a better fantasy baseball mind.

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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Matthias » Sat May 21, 2011 2:02 pm

Based on a strategy I've been applying the last couple of years with some success I have another to add....

* In roto, the pitchers you don't draft are as important as the pitchers you do.

You can afford some swings and misses drafting hitters in roto. Their baseline "bad" won't help you much but they generally won't be so completely awful as to actually destroy the value of the good hitters you've drafted. Pitchers, on the other hand, do have that ability. If you spend some high picks/decent auction dollars to get a couple of aces, and they average 6IP, 1WHIP, and 3.00 ERA but then the flyer SP you took a chance on at the end of the draft clocks in with 4 IP, 2.25 WHIP, and 11.25 ERA, he has single-handedly turned your trio of pitchers into 16 IP, 1.4 WHIP, and 5ish ERA or, in short, 3 perfectly average to crappy starting pitchers.

To use this makes thing a bit difficult. You have to stay away from the end-of-the-draft flyers, most rookie pitchers, and flash-in-the-pans that spring up throughout the year that become a hot add for a week or two and instead have your #6 starter be the equivalent of everyone else's #3. This means some heavy pitcher drafting in the early to mid rounds. It is, however, worth it. Because do you really want to pin your season on how well J.A. Happ is going to do?
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby thejusman1 » Sat May 21, 2011 2:13 pm

Matthias wrote:Based on a strategy I've been applying the last couple of years with some success I have another to add....

* In roto, the pitchers you don't draft are as important as the pitchers you do.

You can afford some swings and misses drafting hitters in roto. Their baseline "bad" won't help you much but they generally won't be so completely awful as to actually destroy the value of the good hitters you've drafted. Pitchers, on the other hand, do have that ability. If you spend some high picks/decent auction dollars to get a couple of aces, and they average 6IP, 1WHIP, and 3.00 ERA but then the flyer SP you took a chance on at the end of the draft clocks in with 4 IP, 2.25 WHIP, and 11.25 ERA, he has single-handedly turned your trio of pitchers into 16 IP, 1.4 WHIP, and 5ish ERA or, in short, 3 perfectly average to crappy starting pitchers.

To use this makes thing a bit difficult. You have to stay away from the end-of-the-draft flyers, most rookie pitchers, and flash-in-the-pans that spring up throughout the year that become a hot add for a week or two and instead have your #6 starter be the equivalent of everyone else's #3. This means some heavy pitcher drafting in the early to mid rounds. It is, however, worth it. Because do you really want to pin your season on how well J.A. Happ is going to do?


Disagree. With the shift of dominance going over to the pitcher side of things, drafting elite hitters early and often is still the way to go, H2H or Roto. Look how late you were able to draft Marcum, Brett Anderson, Wandy Rodriguez, Josh Beckett, Chacin, Kuroda, Pineda... there are plenty of mid-to-late round flier SPs that can blossom into front-line starters. Pitcher-heavy drafting (like drafting two elite pitchers with your first 4 picks) will leave you light on elite hitting. It's so much harder to find a Prince Fielder in the later rounds than a good SP.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Matthias » Sat May 21, 2011 2:29 pm

thejusman1 wrote:
Matthias wrote:Based on a strategy I've been applying the last couple of years with some success I have another to add....

* In roto, the pitchers you don't draft are as important as the pitchers you do.

You can afford some swings and misses drafting hitters in roto. Their baseline "bad" won't help you much but they generally won't be so completely awful as to actually destroy the value of the good hitters you've drafted. Pitchers, on the other hand, do have that ability. If you spend some high picks/decent auction dollars to get a couple of aces, and they average 6IP, 1WHIP, and 3.00 ERA but then the flyer SP you took a chance on at the end of the draft clocks in with 4 IP, 2.25 WHIP, and 11.25 ERA, he has single-handedly turned your trio of pitchers into 16 IP, 1.4 WHIP, and 5ish ERA or, in short, 3 perfectly average to crappy starting pitchers.

To use this makes thing a bit difficult. You have to stay away from the end-of-the-draft flyers, most rookie pitchers, and flash-in-the-pans that spring up throughout the year that become a hot add for a week or two and instead have your #6 starter be the equivalent of everyone else's #3. This means some heavy pitcher drafting in the early to mid rounds. It is, however, worth it. Because do you really want to pin your season on how well J.A. Happ is going to do?

Disagree. With the shift of dominance going over to the pitcher side of things, drafting elite hitters early and often is still the way to go, H2H or Roto. Look how late you were able to draft Marcum, Brett Anderson, Wandy Rodriguez, Josh Beckett, Chacin, Kuroda, Pineda... there are plenty of mid-to-late round flier SPs that can blossom into front-line starters. Pitcher-heavy drafting (like drafting two elite pitchers with your first 4 picks) will leave you light on elite hitting. It's so much harder to find a Prince Fielder in the later rounds than a good SP.

I'm not sure how cheap Beckett, Marcum, Anderson, Wandy, or even Chacin went in leagues that knew what they were doing. But here's some pre-season pitcher rankings.

http://www.fantasybaseballdugout.com/20 ... -pitchers/
http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/baseba ... iew-020111
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... index.html

The success rate of the top 1/3 is so much better than the bottom 1/3 it's not even funny. And you're always going to look better picking diamonds in the rough after they've already sparkled. For every Pineda there's 2 or 3 Faustos, Wolfs, or Pavanos. Not to mention that you're ignoring my point. You can draft a bad hitter and then find a hot bat off of the wire but at least the bad hitter doesn't kill your team stats while you hold on to him. Having 1 terrible starter, however, can negate 1 or even 2 high-quality starters. So they don't just not help you, they actively hurt you.

What is available on the wire and what is valuable varies from league to league, but I have actually gotten some good hitters off of the wire or drafted very late in a 12-man league: Joyce, Gordon, Chipper, Hafner, Brantley and Ramos to name a few.
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