Who is most worth a "Reach"?

[rayfan4life]

So, just completed ESPN 5X5 H2H draft last night. I like power + speed guys the most, so that is who I am focusing on. Using Mock Draft Central ADP, averaged against picks from last night, I came up with a "current" ADP. This league was drafted really well, so I think including last night's draft makes trending projections more accurate. There were really no moronic picks (unless you include mine ).

Anyway, wondering who you think is worth a pick earlier than projected among the following. If I am missing an obvious power / speed guy, please don't hesitate to add him to the conversation:

Ian Kinsler (with foot injury, he went end of third last night; typically end of second)
Grady Sizemore (didn't go off board til end of fifth, typically end of third / beginning of fourth)
Curtis Granderson (end of fifth)
Adam Jones (beginning of eighth)
Andrew McCutchen (end of ninth)
Carlos Gonzalez (twelfth)
Alfonso Soriano (twelfth)
Alex Rios (thirteenth)

Opinion on if I should draft any of these guys a round or two higher? BTW, didn't include certain guys (Wright, Upton boys, etc.) because to take them higher than ADP would cost too high a pick. Also didn't include really late round fliers like Milledge or Dukes because there really is not risk taking them 22nd instead of 25th, let's say.

Thanks for the input!

[rayfan4life]

Forgot a few:

Brandon Phillips (middle of fifth)
Ben Zobrist (middle of sixth)
Shin Soo Choo (early 7th)
Bobby Abreu (early 9th)

[rayfan4life]

Bump - hoping for feedback for my next draft. Please help.

[ayebatter]

The only guy I wouldn't/haven't move up a round would be

Alfonso Soriano (twelfth)

he won't see one of my rosters before the 17th, yes that means he won't be on any of my rosters

[dave knight]

Granderson is poor value in the 5th. Overrated on the Yankees. Why not wait and take CarGo?

I'd reach multiple rounds for Gonzalez, and one or two rounds for the rest except for Soriano who should be avoided given the price. I don't want Zobrist in the 6th either. I wouldn't reach too far above the 7th for Choo, but he is a good pick around that point.

[rayfan4life]

That's one vote for Gonzalez. I have to agree, I think he's gonna be a stud. Sucks - in the last draft, he went in the fifth.

[Geek]

I like Granderson in early 5th round. If you call that a reach.

I generally don't recommend you 'reach' for anyone--a lot of people will overpay for power/speed combos, so that's usually baked into their ADP to begin with.

Thanks for helping with mine,

[jackie hayes]

CarGo and Sizemore are my favorite "reaches" in that group. A full round higher still strikes me as very good value.

[rayfan4life]

CarGo and Sizemore are my favorite "reaches" in that group. A full round higher still strikes me as very good value.

What is CarGo's ADP currently? Like I said, I saw him go in the FIFTH last night. Too high for me.

[tribefan08]

Granderson is poor value in the 5th. Overrated on the Yankees. Why not wait and take CarGo?

I'd reach multiple rounds for Gonzalez, and one or two rounds for the rest except for Soriano who should be avoided given the price. I don't want Zobrist in the 6th either. I wouldn't reach too far above the 7th for Choo, but he is a good pick around that point.

really? You think Curtis Granderson in the 5th is bad value? He went 30/20 last year. He did bat .249 since I know that will be the rebuttle, but he's a career .270 hitter. The previous two years he batted .280 and .302? I hate the yankees, but that park is a HR park. Grandy could go 35/20 and bat .275 this year EASY. He'll have a better line up around him and be in a better overall situation. Poor value? Then what do you think of werth going in the 4th?

Must be a worse value.

Comparing Cargo to Granderson is foolish as well. Again dont get me wrong I love cargo, i snapped him up last year, i'm on the bandwagon..... BUT we saw 278 AB's last year. Now if you're one of those people that want to just extrapolate his numbers by doubling them and say since he SHOULD get 560+ AB's this year he'll go 26/32 and bat .284 then go ahead, but you're gonna be in for a shocker. Cargo is a very nice player, on a nice team, in a great park, But we've seen a small sample size. The rockies OF is loaded. What if he slumps for a month or so early? do you think the rockies will hesitate to play one of their other OF'ers? Seth Smith? Fowler? Eric Young, they've got a slew of them....

He's never hit more than 23HRS or stole more than 16 in the minors, which yes i know, he was young and still is young ONLY 23 this year, but I DONT think you can expect him to put up granderson type numbers.....

a 25/20 season and a .280 average is what should be expected.

35/20 and .275 from granderson
25/20 and .280 from gonzalez

The power difference is pretty big and i'm GIVING cargo about 5 extra sb's than he ever stole at the minor league level. I wouldn't go crazy to the point of drafting cargo 2-3 rounds before ADP. We saw a small sample size last year and expecting him to just double it etc isn't too smart.

Cargo in the 5th is ridiculous.