dave knight wrote:Actually this is a keeper, so I'd move Gallardo ahead of Peavy and Wandy. Still, overcoming a control problem is a tough thing to do.
It's a keeper but I'm only worried about how they'll do this year. It's only 4 keepers and I cant really see a scenario where I'd keep any of them over my 4 now (Utley, Cabrera, Kemp, J Upton)...especially when there will be a pretty good selection in the draft like now.
The 3 that I'm prolly the most unsure about are Vasquez, Beckett, and Gallardo, especially when some are ranking them at the top and others at the very bottom. Beckett's SP ranking in our league 2 of the last 3 years has been solid (11th in '09 and 6th in '07). Same with Vasquez (6th in '09 and 8th in '07)...I know the move to the AL is a big issue for him. Thanks for the replies so far...
True, but like I said on another thread: Vazquez's great peripherals don't always translate into him having a great ERA. From '04 up until '08, he always had an xFIP below his ERA (which is to say Vazquez has been unlucky). His biggest ERA upside lies in him hurling a 3.50-4.00 ERA, but there's a more than decent chance of him pitching above a 4.00 ERA, no matter how good his xFIP is. Vazquez is a flyball pitcher by trade and is prone to the HR ball. Also, his K/9 is bound to regress going back to the AL.
I agree that great periphers don't always translate into a great ERA. But they tell you what kind of ERA should be expected. I also agree that he was unlucky most of those years, and the luck evened out last year. He went through what Nolasco is going through now with being unlucky despite being a very good pitcher.
Gallardo's upside is great, but I want a track record of at least good peripherals with the ace. Didn't he injure his ACL, at any rate. That isn't even an arm injury where he'd have an excuse for the wildness. Upside with high risk is fine, but draft it later like with Mat Latos, Neftali Feliz, or a whole other slew of arms. There's always a batch of hot young pitchers with control issues or without.
Well, if track record is going to be your guide, then Vazquez had 4 straight years of bad luck with an ERA that underperformed his xFIP. Also keep in mind xFIP doesn't factor in HR, but Vazquez, like I've said, is a flyball pitcher and pitching in a HR haven, there's a good chance he goes back to underperforming his expected ERA again.
Personally, I like Vazquez more than the average cafe guy in terms of this season. Shoot, I was pretty happy to land Vazquez as my #3 starter in the 10th round of the Experts Challenge League, to complement Lincecum and Nolasco because he does eat innings and he puts a solid K/BB rate no matter where he's pitching. The only thing is, there's much more downside as to where his ERA ends up by season's end. I'd be pretty thrilled with a 3.70-3.80 ERA out of Javy, to be honest.
As far as Gallardo goes, I'll say it again. You're basing a track record of misplaced control on one year. His BB/9 in the minors was quite good and he had a BB/9 in the low 3's on 110 innings in 2007. I also think his lack of control was due in part to missing out much of the prior season as well. We can't rule out that Gallardo got tired down the stretch too: he had a 2nd half 4.50 ERA. However, aside from the K/9, he showed improvement in his groundball rate too: 45%. I think Gallardo could be on the same boat as Lincecum was from '07 to '08 too. Lincecum had a BB/9 in the 4's before sorting it out in '08 and '09. Better location, better aggressiveness of the plate and I think Gallardo puts a lower ERA and the same WHIP as Vazquez (I have both down for 1.25).
As far as Gallardo goes, I'll say it again. You're basing a track record of misplaced control on one year. His BB/9 in the minors was quite good and he had a BB/9 in the low 3's on 110 innings in 2007. I also think his lack of control was due in part to missing out much of the prior season as well. We can't rule out that Gallardo got tired down the stretch too: he had a 2nd half 4.50 ERA. However, aside from the K/9, he showed improvement in his groundball rate too: 45%. I think Gallardo could be on the same boat as Lincecum was from '07 to '08 too. Lincecum had a BB/9 in the 4's before sorting it out in '08 and '09. Better location, better aggressiveness of the plate and I think Gallardo puts a lower ERA and the same WHIP as Vazquez (I have both down for 1.25).
Sure, I just don't think what happened back in 06/07 is as relevant as the recent returns. Minor league batters have lower walk rates because they are less selective. Major league batters have better eyes and aren't fooled by his stuff (at least as far as whether to swing or not) And like I've said many times, he could become Lincecum but you're not going to pay for that this year. The current asking price assumes the BB improvement will be automatic and will definitely happen. I'll pay a premium next year if he improves or in a keeper league this year where you keep 8+ players.
As far as Gallardo goes, I'll say it again. You're basing a track record of misplaced control on one year. His BB/9 in the minors was quite good and he had a BB/9 in the low 3's on 110 innings in 2007. I also think his lack of control was due in part to missing out much of the prior season as well. We can't rule out that Gallardo got tired down the stretch too: he had a 2nd half 4.50 ERA. However, aside from the K/9, he showed improvement in his groundball rate too: 45%. I think Gallardo could be on the same boat as Lincecum was from '07 to '08 too. Lincecum had a BB/9 in the 4's before sorting it out in '08 and '09. Better location, better aggressiveness of the plate and I think Gallardo puts a lower ERA and the same WHIP as Vazquez (I have both down for 1.25).
Sure, I just don't think what happened back in 06/07 is as relevant as the recent returns. Minor league batters have lower walk rates because they are less selective. Major league batters have better eyes and aren't fooled by his stuff (at least as far as whether to swing or not) And like I've said many times, he could become Lincecum but you're not going to pay for that this year. The current asking price assumes the BB improvement will be automatic and will definitely happen. I'll pay a premium next year if he improves or in a keeper league this year where you keep 8+ players.
Yes, but minor league stats can also lend some insight with command. On top of that, Gallardo had 110 innings with a BB/9 of 3.02 walks in 2007. In '09, he was on the better part of 4.5 BB/9. It's a good chance that a high walk rate can be expected of him, but I also believe that BB/9 is an outlier as well. He has good enough stuff to reduce that BB/9 under 4, as well as the command to boot, to make up for the increase in his fastball velocity last year.
The way I see it is Vazquez and Gallardo go around the same time in drafts. Vazquez at this point just has more downside than Gallardo; we're talking about an ERA correction going back to the AL against a rising walk rate, one factor that is in a pitcher's locus of control (no pun intended). I can see both Vazquez and Gallardo racking up 200 innings and 200 K's, but I like the upside of Gallardo posting an ERA below the 3.50 mark (it's certainly feasible) and the extra upside in K's. A walk rate under or at 4.00 BB/9 and I see Gallardo putting similar WHIP to Vazquez, as Vazquez's contact rate against will certainly go back up in the AL (which will offset Vazquez's hits against Gallardo's walks). Gallardo is 24, Vazquez is ten years older if I recall correctly, and in a keeper, I think the fact that the asking prices are relatively high and relatively the same, makes Gallardo a slam dunk. In a keeper, I'm taking the younger guy with more improvement and could at worse, be Javier Vazquez.
The Artful Dodger wrote:The way I see it is Vazquez and Gallardo go around the same time in drafts. Vazquez at this point just has more downside than Gallardo; we're talking about an ERA correction going back to the AL against a rising walk rate, one factor that is in a pitcher's locus of control (no pun intended). I can see both Vazquez and Gallardo racking up 200 innings and 200 K's, but I like the upside of Gallardo posting an ERA below the 3.50 mark (it's certainly feasible) and the extra upside in K's. A walk rate under or at 4.00 BB/9 and I see Gallardo putting similar WHIP to Vazquez, as Vazquez's contact rate against will certainly go back up in the AL (which will offset Vazquez's hits against Gallardo's walks). Gallardo is 24, Vazquez is ten years older if I recall correctly, and in a keeper, I think the fact that the asking prices are relatively high and relatively the same, makes Gallardo a slam dunk. In a keeper, I'm taking the younger guy with more improvement and could at worse, be Javier Vazquez.
To be clear, I see WHIP as the big Vazquez advantage. Even with the White Sox, he was at 1.25 with bad luck. Gallardo's 1.31 in 2009 came with good luck (low BABIP). Even with a good track record, we can't fully excuse 2009. I expect 1.20 vs. 1.30 in the category. ERA is a slight Vazuqez advantage, Strikeouts are a slight Gallardo advantage, and wins are a clear Vazuqez edge because of the Yankees. Seems like 2 decisive and 1 slight advantage for Vazquez, and 1 slight advantage for Gallardo in 5x5. We'll see who's right in time.
The Artful Dodger wrote:The way I see it is Vazquez and Gallardo go around the same time in drafts. Vazquez at this point just has more downside than Gallardo; we're talking about an ERA correction going back to the AL against a rising walk rate, one factor that is in a pitcher's locus of control (no pun intended). I can see both Vazquez and Gallardo racking up 200 innings and 200 K's, but I like the upside of Gallardo posting an ERA below the 3.50 mark (it's certainly feasible) and the extra upside in K's. A walk rate under or at 4.00 BB/9 and I see Gallardo putting similar WHIP to Vazquez, as Vazquez's contact rate against will certainly go back up in the AL (which will offset Vazquez's hits against Gallardo's walks). Gallardo is 24, Vazquez is ten years older if I recall correctly, and in a keeper, I think the fact that the asking prices are relatively high and relatively the same, makes Gallardo a slam dunk. In a keeper, I'm taking the younger guy with more improvement and could at worse, be Javier Vazquez.
To be clear, I see WHIP as the big Vazquez advantage. Even with the White Sox, he was at 1.25 with bad luck. Gallardo's 1.31 in 2009 came with good luck (low BABIP). Even with a good track record, we can't fully excuse 2009. I expect 1.20 vs. 1.30 in the category. ERA is a slight Vazuqez advantage, Strikeouts are a slight Gallardo advantage, and wins are a clear Vazuqez edge because of the Yankees. Seems like 2 decisive and 1 slight advantage for Vazquez, and 1 slight advantage for Gallardo in 5x5. We'll see who's right in time.
FWIW, this is what I have Gallardo and Vazquez down for:
Sure, Gallardo's BABIP was a bit on the low side, but usually league averages for BABIP tend to fluctuate between .300-310. His xFIP was about in line with his final ERA. I can also contend that Vazquez was lucky as well even in a great situation, with a strand rate of under 77%. His line drive rate was also considerably higher.
The big thing is, Vazquez's contact rate is likely to take a big step up. You're talking about a 73% contact rate last season for a guy who's usually at 76-78%. Like I said, going back to the American League with the DH will add up to him conceding more contact, and perhaps more hits. He's also moving into the new Yankees ballpark, which is just tough on right handers. His K/9 is likely to take a slight dip (mid-to-high 8's, not high 9's) as well. Wins are tricky to predict and while Vazquez is likely to get better run support, what matters more is innings thrown than just mere run support, as a factor to pick up wins.
So, like I said, I see the WHIP offsetting in a way between the two. Gallardo could have efficiency problems but Vazquez is also going to give up more contact, no question about it. I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say Gallardo's hideous BB/9 is an outlier. The fact that Gallardo can give me Vazquez's worst projection (let's say, an ERA well north of 4 and a 1.30 WHIP) as a floor, would lead me to believe that Gallardo is the choice. In a keeper, it's just a slam dunk, IMO. Not that I'm trying to convince you, just that I disagree massively with the notion that Gallardo is overrated.
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by NickC19 » Sat Mar 13, 2010 5:11 pm 
