Beckett Vasquez Cliff Lee Nolasco Jimenez J Johnson Wandy Billingsley Peavy Gallardo
Gallardo is hugely overrated because of terrible control, the NL/AL switch for Peavy is not good, Billingsley is a minor control risk, and Wandy has put up good stats but he doesn't have good stuff. So the question is whether he can keep up ace-like numbers.
Beckett Vasquez Cliff Lee Nolasco Jimenez J Johnson Wandy Billingsley Peavy Gallardo
Gallardo is hugely overrated because of terrible control, the NL/AL switch for Peavy is not good, Billingsley is a minor control risk, and Wandy has put up good stats but he doesn't have good stuff. So the question is whether he can keep up ace-like numbers.
The first six are low-end aces or high-end 2s.
Vasquez 2nd? He has a career 4.52 era in AL.
Lee JJ Gallardo Jimenez Beckett Bills Peavy Nolasco Wandy Vasquez
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dave knight wrote:Gallardo is hugely overrated because of terrible control
To be fair, you're basing that off one year of lousy control, especially one year removed from his season cut short with 24 innings due to a knee injury. He had decent command in the minors and the same for '07. If he cuts down on nibbling the strike zone as often as he does, Gallardo could have an incredible year. Don't think you can pass up on 200+ K potential and a guy who posted a near-10 K/9 last year either. I just like JJ and Jimenez for the better K/BB rate (and 200 K potential as well) and Lee gobbling up quality innings of posting an excellent ERA/WHIP than Gallardo though.
...and the funny thing is, you note Peavy's NL/AL switch and yet you have Javy ranked second? Javy has a more suspect record in the AL and Peavy has yet to post a meaningful sample with the league change.
The Artful Dodger wrote: ...and the funny thing is, you note Peavy's NL/AL switch and yet you have Javy ranked second? Javy has a more suspect record in the AL and Peavy has yet to post a meaningful sample with the league change.
It's not funny. Vazquez' peripherals have always been better than his ERAs, while even in the NL Peavy was basically a Petco Park pitcher. Vazquez faced some BABIP blues in Chicago, and I don't expect that to carry over. Vazquez always had good K/BB, which unlike for a hitter is relevant for a pitcher. High-end number 2. Gallardo is more of a #3 until he actually shows us he has better control. That's fine if you think he does but I'm not going to pay for the improvement to happen (except in a keeper league you can go crazy for him). Same with Kershaw to a lesser extent. The ace with a 1.3+ WHIP is not the bee's knees.
The Artful Dodger wrote: ...and the funny thing is, you note Peavy's NL/AL switch and yet you have Javy ranked second? Javy has a more suspect record in the AL and Peavy has yet to post a meaningful sample with the league change.
It's not funny. Vazquez' peripherals have always been better than his ERAs, while even in the NL Peavy was basically a Petco Park pitcher. Vazquez faced some BABIP blues in Chicago, and I don't expect that to carry over. Vazquez always had good K/BB, which unlike for a hitter is relevant for a pitcher. High-end number 2. Gallardo is more of a #3 until he actually shows us he has better control. That's fine if you think he does but I'm not going to pay for the improvement to happen (except in a keeper league you can go crazy for him). Same with Kershaw to a lesser extent. The ace with a 1.3+ WHIP is not the bee's knees.
True, but like I said on another thread: Vazquez's great peripherals don't always translate into him having a great ERA. From '04 up until '08, he always had an xFIP below his ERA (which is to say Vazquez has been unlucky). His biggest ERA upside lies in him hurling a 3.50-4.00 ERA, but there's a more than decent chance of him pitching above a 4.00 ERA, no matter how good his xFIP is. Vazquez is a flyball pitcher by trade and is prone to the HR ball. Also, his K/9 is bound to regress going back to the AL.
And again, you're basing Gallardo's WHIP-killing ways off one year amidst a track record in which his walk rate was considerably lower. BTW, this is a keeper and given his room for improvement, he's a no-brainer. Again, can't pass up on a young pitcher already pitching up to his potential, has room for improvement, and has a more than decent shot at taking the next step this year.
True, but like I said on another thread: Vazquez's great peripherals don't always translate into him having a great ERA. From '04 up until '08, he always had an xFIP below his ERA (which is to say Vazquez has been unlucky). His biggest ERA upside lies in him hurling a 3.50-4.00 ERA, but there's a more than decent chance of him pitching above a 4.00 ERA, no matter how good his xFIP is. Vazquez is a flyball pitcher by trade and is prone to the HR ball. Also, his K/9 is bound to regress going back to the AL.
I agree that great periphers don't always translate into a great ERA. But they tell you what kind of ERA should be expected. I also agree that he was unlucky most of those years, and the luck evened out last year. He went through what Nolasco is going through now with being unlucky despite being a very good pitcher.
Gallardo's upside is great, but I want a track record of at least good peripherals with the ace. Didn't he injure his ACL, at any rate. That isn't even an arm injury where he'd have an excuse for the wildness. Upside with high risk is fine, but draft it later like with Mat Latos, Neftali Feliz, or a whole other slew of arms. There's always a batch of hot young pitchers with control issues or without.
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by NickC19 » Sat Mar 13, 2010 3:34 pm 
