where to draft these players?

[miracles716]

i am in a keeper league and these high potential, high risk players i am considering drafting, please let me know what round i should realistically draft them in? its a 12 team 5x5 league

ss-reyes
of-beltran
sp-santana
of-soriano
sp-webb

[Epiphany]

This is a good question and will probably have a lot of different opinions.

My philosophy with players who are currently hurt and expected to return at some point of the season is: ....if they fall to me at a bargain I will pounce.

My bargain round for each player is:
Reyes: Rnd 4
Beltran: Rnd 8-9 ( I am personally not targeting Beltran, but this is good value if he returns in May/June and is healthy?????).
Soriano: Rnd 14
Webb Rnd 15

Prior the recent news about Webb I would have considered taking him as early as 12. I am most worried about how effective he will be this year after missing a whole year than any of the other players you mentioned.
Johan Santana has been cleared w/ a clean bill of health, so his ADP has not been as affected as the other players. I would take him in Rnd 5 after the likes of Lester...Beckett...Wainwright...Haren guys are already gone.

hope that helps.

[fcnick]

Well considering that Reyes is hurt for a few weeks now, that may drop his value some, even in a keeper league. I imagine 4th round.
Since Beltran is getting older (age 33 season) and he has been an injury risk, you can likely get him fairly late, you're looking at 12th, 13th round.
Santana probably won't fall much further than the mid-4th round, I can't imagine him going any later, that is.
Soriano (who I would advise drafting at all) maybe will fall as far as the 9th-10th round. But he's already 34 and he is a pretty big injury risk.
Webb is a great value pick IMO. Depending on the level on which you're playing, he may fall as far as the 12th round. I would advise jumping on him earlier however, maybe as early as the 10th round.

[thejusman1]

I'd like to point out too that all of this depends on the competitive level of the fantasy league you're in. I've seen Beltran slide as far as Rounds 14-16 and Beltran go nearly undrafted. Also, some managers HATE injury risk no matter what.

[The Artful Dodger]

Well, first off I'm avoiding Soriano and Webb unless they come really cheap. Usually, Soriano and Webb are drafted within the 9th-12th round range. Soriano's knee, his past nagging leg injuries, and the fact his bat speed was off (due in some part to pitchers not throwing him a fastball as often) lead me to believe that the upside with Soriano isn't too great. I think it's going to be tricky for that shoulder not to keep playing a factor with Webb's effectiveness.

From what I've seen in a few drafts I'm in, Beltran slides to the middle rounds. Knowing the Mets and their prompt methods of disclosing the extent of injuries ( ), you're looking at 3/4's of a season's production from Beltran. Beyond this season and in fact this year, you have to keep in mind the possibility of his power/speed declining as well.

Personally, I think Johan in the 5th-6th round is fair. Coming off an elbow operation, declining velocity, rising hit and walk rates and I'd say Johan's upside is muted (I know I'm taking say, Verlander and Lester over Johan without blinking).

As far as Reyes goes, I thought he was a risk entering the season, not counting the thyroid problem, and I believe for a 2nd rounder, he's surely a risk now. Depending on what's left on the board at round 3, I might consider him, but again on the point of Beltran, I'd be a bit wary about how accurately the Mets assess top players' injuries.