Alvarez or Smoak or Bumgarner

[BUCCOFAN]

I am in a deep 15 team Auction Keeper League (Large Roster) were we draft a starting lineup of the following, 2-Catchers 2-1B 2-2B 2-3B, 2-SS 6-OF 8-Pitchers(SP or RP) and a 6 man bench. We are allowed to carry over 12 players and 1 minor leagu eligible player. I think I got my 12 keepers set, but was wondering out of these 3 minor league guys, Who should I protect and carry over to the coming season, and Why?

3B - P.Alvarez $5 (currently will be eligible @ 3B, but scouts still insist that he will make a Pujols move across the diamond due to his size and foot work)
OR
1B - J.Smoak $2 (hearing allot of scouts compare this kid to former Ranger Mark Teixeira, I personally think he makes it to the show this season, very high on him)
OR
SP - M.Bumgarner $3 (had a cup of coffee, in September last year, pitched alright but has lost about 5mph of his heat. Very Strange and concerning, even this spring he is still only clocking out at 89-90mph, His stock seems to be dropping. I still have the faith but its hanging by a thread.)

Thoughts? greatly appreciated.

My current keepers at the following positions above are.

1B - A.Pujols $44
1B - K.Morales $11
(might not have room for Smoak regardless, something to think about. But Morales could be trade bait later in the season)

3B - no keeper options currently on my roster, hence why I prefer Alvarez. Being a BuccoFan helps too.

SP - A.Wainwright $18
SP - J.Johnson $1
SP - T.Hudson $3
SP - C.Lee $3

[jeffmerk]

Alvarez and Smoak are very close so you might as well save $3. Smoak will be in a more favorable ballpark and lineup. Pujols is no bargain at $44 so you could always trade him for a 3B and other needs.