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Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby kab21 » Sat Mar 06, 2010 8:27 pm

steve1000 wrote:Sure, could have been said in fewer words


but he wouldn't be bigwords then.... ;-D

I do agree that at some point it is likely that HellBoy will get a shot.

tillman is another that seems to be going fairly late that has high upside and could spend a lot of time in the rotation (matusz seems to be going earlier and I do like him better this year). Maybe Drabek. Holland's peripherals were a lot better than his results. maybe bumgarner.

It's more likely that these players will hurt your team but every once in awhile one of them goes Hanson on you.
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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby kaiser » Sat Mar 06, 2010 8:29 pm

Why do I get the feeling that bigwords and Steve1000 are the same person?
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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Sun Mar 07, 2010 11:53 am

bigwords wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:Who would he replace in the rotation? Price? Davis?


Don't think it's necessary to calculate who exactly it would be.

On a scale of 0 to 1, what are the chances that all five Tampa starters stay healthy the entire season?

OK, now multiply it by this...

On a scale of 0 to 1, what are the chances that all five Tampa starters will be effective?

OK, now multiply it by this...

On a scale of 0 to 1, what are the chances that Tampa will want to give its young arms 200 innings each?

Multiply by 100 and that's the percentage chance that Tampa will not need a replacement starter at some point during the season.

My estimate? .3 x .3 x .3 x 100 = 2.7 percent


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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:35 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
steve1000 wrote:Seems simple enough.

Prospect of injury, ineffectiveness, or discretion due to youth will open up a slot in the rotation. Sure, could have been said in fewer words, but had he just said, there's a 97% shot that Hellickson will get a shot, you probably would think he was pulling the number of thin air.

I think he's pulling the number out of thin air either way.

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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby moochman » Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:10 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
bigwords wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:Who would he replace in the rotation? Price? Davis?


Don't think it's necessary to calculate who exactly it would be.

On a scale of 0 to 1, what are the chances that all five Tampa starters stay healthy the entire season?

OK, now multiply it by this...

On a scale of 0 to 1, what are the chances that all five Tampa starters will be effective?

OK, now multiply it by this...

On a scale of 0 to 1, what are the chances that Tampa will want to give its young arms 200 innings each?

Multiply by 100 and that's the percentage chance that Tampa will not need a replacement starter at some point during the season.

My estimate? .3 x .3 x .3 x 100 = 2.7 percent


2.7 percent chance that 1 out of every 100 people understand this.


Does that make this Dusty Baker logic, then? :-b
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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sun Mar 07, 2010 2:00 pm

bigwords is clogging my neural pathways with his random math. :-°
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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby DaSh 1s » Sun Mar 07, 2010 2:16 pm

The best part is he is using a scale of 0-1 and dealing with tenths in terms of decimal points, but lmao then multiplies it by a 100 to derive his percentage.

If you use a scale of 0-1, to make a percentage that would actually make sense, you'd multiply by ten.


But then again, its hard to take numbers out of a butt-ox seriously.
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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 07, 2010 3:32 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:The best part is he is using a scale of 0-1 and dealing with tenths in terms of decimal points, but lmao then multiplies it by a 100 to derive his percentage.

If you use a scale of 0-1, to make a percentage that would actually make sense, you'd multiply by ten.

But then again, its hard to take numbers out of a butt-ox seriously.

You're wrong. He's right.

He's saying that there's a thirty percent chance of those things occurring, not a three percent chance; multiplying by a 100 is exactly how you'd convert a percentage to a real number. Granted, his percentages are things he pulled out of the sky, but he got the conversion part right.

And if you think about it, if what you are saying was right, if you use a scale of 0-1, then something that has a 1 in 1 chance of happening has a 10% chance in occurring. And that's obviously wrong.
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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby bigwords » Sun Mar 07, 2010 3:56 pm

Wow, you guys take this way too seriously.
I was just trying to make a point that there are a lot of factors by which Hellickson could enter the rotation. And that aggregated together, those factors added up to a high (never-intended-to-be-exact) probability that Tampa would need another starter beyond the five in their rotation on opening day. That's all.
Not sure why you all are picking on how I said things instead of either talking about what I said or offering your own answer for the question of the thread. %-6
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Re: Who will be 2010 version of Tommy Hanson?

Postby fezzik » Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:54 pm

bigwords wrote:Wow, you guys take this way too seriously.
I was just trying to make a point that there are a lot of factors by which Hellickson could enter the rotation. And that aggregated together, those factors added up to a high (never-intended-to-be-exact) probability that Tampa would need another starter beyond the five in their rotation on opening day. That's all.
Not sure why you all are picking on how I said things instead of either talking about what I said or offering your own answer for the question of the thread. %-6


The events you listed aren't independent, so it wouldn't work the way you're saying. You would have to specify that the ineffectiveness was not the result of injury and that the 200 IP not being reached was not due to either ineffectiveness or injury, but rather caution on a young arm. Maybe that's what you were assuming in your calculations...not sure. Anyway, I get the general point...and he'll probably get a shot a some time, but you offended my mathematical sensibilities with your post. :-b

Of course you're also making an assumption that he would be the automatic 6th starter...that there would be no discussion on whether it would be better to use a veteran SP to fill the role (especially if one was needed at the beginning of the season).

As far as mid-season callups I don't see anyone who will perform like Hanson...I suppose you have the usual suspects in Strasburg and A. Chapman, but they are both so green it's hard to say. For next season I have my eye on Phillippe Aumont, but if he doesn't develop a quality pitch in addition to his sinker I'm not sure how far he'll go. Hellickson is a solid choice for this year if he gets a shot.
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