Grounded Polo wrote:I guess what I'm wondering is what do the Wright doubters expect of him? With a .450 BABIP, why are the expectations still like .300 and 20/20 from you guys? They should be about .275 10/15 by his '09 numbers right? Everything points towards it, the insane BABIP, the righties decline, etc. I guess I'd be interested in seeing if any possible former superstar has ever had a season like Wright, a 30/30 threat every year just entering his prime who falls flat on his face and needed an insane BABIP to maintain any respectability.
I don't project his numbers at .275/10/15 because he is still so young...and he's proven to possess tons of talent. But I can't just discount what happened last year. His K rate was particularly alarming in conjunction with his power outage. Like you mentioned, this occurrence seems to be an anomaly in the history of fantasy baseball...there's no precedent to point to for insight. So I temper my expectations. He could show that his entire 2009 season was a statistical outlying anomaly, but I can't help but think there was more to it since his metrics were just so terrible.
I project him around 20/22/.300, because in my opinion he has an equal chance of going 10/20/.280 as he does 30/25/.320. So for drafting purposes I calculate his value as a 20/22/.300 guy.