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These Wright projections are making me sick!

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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby J.C.Fighter » Thu Apr 01, 2010 12:35 am

fezzik wrote:
J.C.Fighter wrote:http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=168525
:-o


Many of those criticisms of Wright were already brought up in this thread (by me actually :-D ). I didn't know about the three year decline against righties though.

It's hard to know how Wright will do in 2010 with this unprecedented decline while so young...I think just writing it off as some sort of anomalous season is dangerous. He definitely has the youth and ability to fully rebound, but his metrics were in such decline across the board in 2009 that it has to raise concern. Since I see something around 22/22/.300, he's not worth it to me where he's being drafted.


I'll be giddy if wright gave me that line
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby fezzik » Thu Apr 01, 2010 1:47 am

J.C.Fighter wrote:
fezzik wrote:Since I see something around 22/22/.300, he's not worth it to me where he's being drafted.


I'll be giddy if wright gave me that line


Well, the most pessimistic of the people in that thread you linked put him around 20/20/.300. And I read all 20 pages of it, in all its redundancy. But like I said, I didn't know about his three year decline in hitting righties. That discussion reminded me of how threads can get here sometimes...people who disagree regurgitating the same arguments over and over, but in slightly different ways...with frustration building exponentially on the side of the guy using the more detailed metrics to prove his point. :-D

I appreciated the link, but the :-o you used made me think he was severely injured or something... :-b
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby shawngee03 » Thu Apr 01, 2010 9:36 am

These pretzels are making me thirsty!
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby garf112 » Thu Apr 01, 2010 9:56 am

I couldn't get past the "amazing" post by "RRF" that talked about how Mark Teixeira already hit well with no lineup citing when he was with the Rangers and Braves...

In 2003, he had A-Rod, Blalock, Michael Young, Rafael Palmeiro, and if you add Juan Gonzalez and Carl Everett into one player they hit a combined 42 HRs in 600 ABs.

In 2004 and 2005, he had Alfonso Soriano, Hank Blalock and Michael Young

In 2006, he had Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Gary Matthews "breakout year"

When he moved to the Braves, the guy says he "only" had Chipper in the lineup with him.. Chipper "only" had an OPS of over 1.000, Kelly Johnson, Edgar Renteria, Matt Diaz, Yunel Escobar ALL had OPS above .800

After Beltran, Reyes and Delgado went down, David Wright had Jeff Francoeur and Angel Pagan as the only two hitters that had an OPS above .800.

I honestly believe that lineup played a huge factor in Wright's issues.

It actually makes you start to realize why guys like Billy Butler haven't become huge. And as a Butler owner is starting to make me scared for his chances to become a top fantasy 1B ever, unless he gets some sort of lineup support.
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby thejusman1 » Thu Apr 01, 2010 11:15 am

Wright now has half the number of homers he had all last season in Spring Training so far.
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby sadlyajetsfan » Thu Apr 01, 2010 1:56 pm

What is your taken on Wright's draft position and Longoria's? It seems like they are both being drafted around 13 so many times there is a chance of either early 2nd round. In mocks I've been taking Wright most of the time, but thinking about it, it might be better to go Longoria. As a second pick Longoria seems like the safer pick. Wright has some upside to him, but he needs to have a very good season to be on par with Longoria. What do you guys think?
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby fezzik » Thu Apr 01, 2010 2:26 pm

garf112 wrote:I couldn't get past the "amazing" post by "RRF" that talked about how Mark Teixeira already hit well with no lineup citing when he was with the Rangers and Braves...

In 2003, he had A-Rod, Blalock, Michael Young, Rafael Palmeiro, and if you add Juan Gonzalez and Carl Everett into one player they hit a combined 42 HRs in 600 ABs.

In 2004 and 2005, he had Alfonso Soriano, Hank Blalock and Michael Young

In 2006, he had Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Gary Matthews "breakout year"

When he moved to the Braves, the guy says he "only" had Chipper in the lineup with him.. Chipper "only" had an OPS of over 1.000, Kelly Johnson, Edgar Renteria, Matt Diaz, Yunel Escobar ALL had OPS above .800

After Beltran, Reyes and Delgado went down, David Wright had Jeff Francoeur and Angel Pagan as the only two hitters that had an OPS above .800.

I honestly believe that lineup played a huge factor in Wright's issues.

It actually makes you start to realize why guys like Billy Butler haven't become huge. And as a Butler owner is starting to make me scared for his chances to become a top fantasy 1B ever, unless he gets some sort of lineup support.


Well, I know that being "protected" in a lineup is often overrated...the statistics I've seen don't back up any significant advantage to having a stud bat behind/in front of you. I'm not talking about the counting stats here, because of course a potent lineup batting behind someone will drive them in more...and having high OBP guys batting if front will increase RBIs. But individual player metrics shouldn't be affected much at all unless you subscribe to the theory that he was "pressing" all season and "trying to do it all". These things can't be measured quantitatively and are subjective analyses. That could be exactly what happened (or at least be a large contributing factor), but it isn't convincing enough for me to draft him where he's going. There are too many "what ifs" and "whys" surrounding him. It's not like he was performing well before all his buddies went down...his only bright spot during that time was his BA (sustained by a .450+ BABIP).

He's just too risky for me in round 2, but I hope he does well. He's one of the games young stars.
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby j24jags » Thu Apr 01, 2010 2:40 pm

sadlyajetsfan wrote:What is your taken on Wright's draft position and Longoria's? It seems like they are both being drafted around 13 so many times there is a chance of either early 2nd round. In mocks I've been taking Wright most of the time, but thinking about it, it might be better to go Longoria. As a second pick Longoria seems like the safer pick. Wright has some upside to him, but he needs to have a very good season to be on par with Longoria. What do you guys think?

I posted this earlier in the thread and I said there's no way you can really defend taking Wright over Longoria going into this season. I'm not saying there's no way Wright will outproduce Longoria, but Longoria has to be taken a few picks before Wright.
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby sadlyajetsfan » Thu Apr 01, 2010 10:41 pm

j24jags wrote:I posted this earlier in the thread and I said there's no way you can really defend taking Wright over Longoria going into this season. I'm not saying there's no way Wright will outproduce Longoria, but Longoria has to be taken a few picks before Wright.


That's what I was thinking. I'm a Mets fan so it would be hard passing on him, but I guess you can't be biased when drafting. It's weird I was seeing Longoria go late first a few weeks ago and now he is consistently going 12-13. Hopefully the decision will be made for me and I won't have to decide between the two lol.
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1B-A.Gonzalez
2B-Utley
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Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby Grounded Polo » Fri Apr 02, 2010 2:00 pm

I've been following the David Wright megathread at rotoworld. I'm heavily invested in him being that he's the best player on my favorite team, the cornerstone of both keeper teams, and I ended up being forced to take him in another redraft league thanks to picking 14th. :-S

I guess what I'm wondering is what do the Wright doubters expect of him? With a .450 BABIP, why are the expectations still like .300 and 20/20 from you guys? They should be about .275 10/15 by his '09 numbers right? Everything points towards it, the insane BABIP, the righties decline, etc. I guess I'd be interested in seeing if any possible former superstar has ever had a season like Wright, a 30/30 threat every year just entering his prime who falls flat on his face and needed an insane BABIP to maintain any respectability.

I'd like to see him not focus on hitting the ball to the opposite field so much, that would help to get his power back up. His flyball opposite field percentage went up by 20% last year. I'd have to think that if he's not as focused on hitting the ball all over the field, the home runs, horribly bad righties splits, and BABIP will normalize. He was just missing on home runs when they were opposite field ones, he wasn't losing an excessive amount of home runs swinging to left field. A complete change in his approach to hitting can explain the ridiculous anomalies in his numbers.

Like the believers and doubters think, he's just too talented and young to be this bad again unless he continues his 2009 habits that seem correctable. Who knows, the opposite field approach could have the same effects on him that happened with Matt Holliday when he was following McGwire's hitting advice in Oakland. Holliday went back to being a superstar when he went back to his old ways, hopefull Wright does the same.
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