These Wright projections are making me sick!

[kingmike74]

After reviewing Marcel, Chone, BJ and a few more projections on David Wright, I have to wonder what they are smoking.

Below are the averages of 6 reputable projections I have used in the past.

.306/22/95/92/23

I mean, NWIH is Wright going to have 22 homers. I do not care about the stadium or whatever. If you are getting Wright after pick 10, then pat yourself on the back, sit back and watch the good times roll.


I have pegged lots of projections in the past on "sub performing" players coming off great, progressive years and my Wright projection is below.

.322/30/115/113/25


Of course this is assuming Jose B is healthy all year.

[Inukchuk]

So I guess my only question is, what's your explanation for last year's 10? I'd be more inclined to take you seriously if you can give me a reason why you think he can triple his HR output in the same home ballbark.

[Pogotheostrich]

I agree with the 30 HR, they are probably using a 3 yr weighted average.
You projection looks good but I think the BA and R are too high.

[kingmike74]

I used my field chart to get his average. With the way the new Mets park plays, and it's size, I think .310 is the floor, .330 the ceiling.

After hearing Wright in numerous interviews, and reading tons of material, he was trying some different things last year and did not try to pull as much. After all the research I have done, David really was hurt last year with the NYM injuries.


There is absolutely no reason to think David Wright does not get back to being a top 10 player in MLB. After seeing him play in person some, 10 HR is just a fluke, a big fluke. I mean he could have 25 or so this year but no way does he match the current projections.

[bigh0rt]

Why stop at 30? I say he hits 40.

[MasterX1918]

He might hit 50 with those new guns

[TheRock]

If you're pretty sure that's what he'll produce, why are other people's lesser projections making you sick? They should make you giddy.

I'm cautiously optimistic about his rebound chances. Of course he's going to say now that he'll do better this year. And while he was sucking last year he didn't recognize that? Or just chose to continue sucking anyway? Just saying, I'm not quite as confident projecting him back to 2008 levels til I know why his power dropped completely off the map. Which should make you happy.

[ScrappyDoo]

I have the 9th pick in a 10 team 7x7 h2h with OBP and SLG. Looking at him in the 2nd round, possibly 1st round if Tex, Miggy, Howard are all available when I pick, knowing I will get one of them on the backswing.

Little worried about last year, but he definitely has value in a league with OBP/SLG considering 3B is so shallow. Might come down to picking between him and Longoria.

20+ homers should be a lock considering they lowered some of the outfield walls, and he will finally have some protection in the lineup.

[Chicago 2]

I have the 9th pick in a 10 team 7x7 h2h with OBP and SLG. Looking at him in the 2nd round, possibly 1st round if Tex, Miggy, Howard are all available when I pick, knowing I will get one of them on the backswing.

Little worried about last year, but he definitely has value in a league with OBP/SLG considering 3B is so shallow. Might come down to picking between him and Longoria.

20+ homers should be a lock considering they lowered some of the outfield walls, and he will finally have some protection in the lineup.

Looking for some clarification on the Met's ballpark. I thought they only lowered the section in center field next to the apple 8 feet. Did they lower left and right field as well? Their ballpark is one reason why I am shying away from Wright. I do like his potential for a rebound and with Bay in the lineup and Reyes and Beltran hopefully healthy that adds more firepower.

[Merrick65]

Regardless of what side of the fence you are one re: Wright this year; it should be noted that his home park was not what caused the drop off in HR. His home/road split was an even 5/5 in '09.