These Wright projections are making me sick! - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

These Wright projections are making me sick!

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby kingmike74 » Wed Mar 03, 2010 12:27 pm

After reviewing Marcel, Chone, BJ and a few more projections on David Wright, I have to wonder what they are smoking.

Below are the averages of 6 reputable projections I have used in the past.

.306/22/95/92/23

I mean, NWIH is Wright going to have 22 homers. I do not care about the stadium or whatever. If you are getting Wright after pick 10, then pat yourself on the back, sit back and watch the good times roll.


I have pegged lots of projections in the past on "sub performing" players coming off great, progressive years and my Wright projection is below.

.322/30/115/113/25


Of course this is assuming Jose B is healthy all year.
"I can't wait to put the uniform on each day" ~ Bobby Cox
kingmike74
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2729
(Past Year: 28)
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On Deck

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Mar 03, 2010 12:41 pm

So I guess my only question is, what's your explanation for last year's 10? I'd be more inclined to take you seriously if you can give me a reason why you think he can triple his HR output in the same home ballbark.
Last edited by Inukchuk on Wed Mar 03, 2010 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Image
abrunn11... the place to go for all your sig needs...
Inukchuk
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4014
Joined: 24 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Coming down on this hospital like the hammer of Thor

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 03, 2010 12:47 pm

I agree with the 30 HR, they are probably using a 3 yr weighted average.
You projection looks good but I think the BA and R are too high.
Image
Pogotheostrich
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 21583
(Past Year: 353)
Joined: 9 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Louis

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby kingmike74 » Wed Mar 03, 2010 12:58 pm

I used my field chart to get his average. With the way the new Mets park plays, and it's size, I think .310 is the floor, .330 the ceiling.

After hearing Wright in numerous interviews, and reading tons of material, he was trying some different things last year and did not try to pull as much. After all the research I have done, David really was hurt last year with the NYM injuries.


There is absolutely no reason to think David Wright does not get back to being a top 10 player in MLB. After seeing him play in person some, 10 HR is just a fluke, a big fluke. I mean he could have 25 or so this year but no way does he match the current projections.
"I can't wait to put the uniform on each day" ~ Bobby Cox
kingmike74
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2729
(Past Year: 28)
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On Deck

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:08 pm

Why stop at 30? I say he hits 40.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24802
(Past Year: 388)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby MasterX1918 » Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:16 pm

He might hit 50 with those new guns
Image
MasterX1918
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 2150
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby TheRock » Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:23 pm

If you're pretty sure that's what he'll produce, why are other people's lesser projections making you sick? They should make you giddy.

I'm cautiously optimistic about his rebound chances. Of course he's going to say now that he'll do better this year. And while he was sucking last year he didn't recognize that? Or just chose to continue sucking anyway? Just saying, I'm not quite as confident projecting him back to 2008 levels til I know why his power dropped completely off the map. Which should make you happy.
Image
TheRock
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 3055
(Past Year: 8)
Joined: 16 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: America's Heartland

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby ScrappyDoo » Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:27 pm

I have the 9th pick in a 10 team 7x7 h2h with OBP and SLG. Looking at him in the 2nd round, possibly 1st round if Tex, Miggy, Howard are all available when I pick, knowing I will get one of them on the backswing.

Little worried about last year, but he definitely has value in a league with OBP/SLG considering 3B is so shallow. Might come down to picking between him and Longoria.

20+ homers should be a lock considering they lowered some of the outfield walls, and he will finally have some protection in the lineup.
ScrappyDoo
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 962
Joined: 5 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby Chicago 2 » Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:42 pm

ScrappyDoo wrote:I have the 9th pick in a 10 team 7x7 h2h with OBP and SLG. Looking at him in the 2nd round, possibly 1st round if Tex, Miggy, Howard are all available when I pick, knowing I will get one of them on the backswing.

Little worried about last year, but he definitely has value in a league with OBP/SLG considering 3B is so shallow. Might come down to picking between him and Longoria.

20+ homers should be a lock considering they lowered some of the outfield walls, and he will finally have some protection in the lineup.

Looking for some clarification on the Met's ballpark. I thought they only lowered the section in center field next to the apple 8 feet. Did they lower left and right field as well? Their ballpark is one reason why I am shying away from Wright. I do like his potential for a rebound and with Bay in the lineup and Reyes and Beltran hopefully healthy that adds more firepower.
Image
Chicago 2
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar
Lucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 410
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: These Wright projections are making me sick!

Postby Merrick65 » Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:56 pm

Regardless of what side of the fence you are one re: Wright this year; it should be noted that his home park was not what caused the drop off in HR. His home/road split was an even 5/5 in '09.
Merrick65
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 74
Joined: 7 Mar 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Jul. 23
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Cleveland at Minnesota
(1:10 pm)
Kansas City at Chi White Sox
(2:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
(2:10 pm)
Washington at Colorado
(3:10 pm)
Detroit at Arizona
(3:40 pm)
NY Mets at Seattle
(3:40 pm)
LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
San Francisco at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
Texas at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Toronto
(7:07 pm)
Miami at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
Tampa Bay at St. Louis
(7:15 pm)
San Diego at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Baltimore at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(10:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact