Bosy Billups wrote:Thanks. I don't know though. The pre-season rankings usually never pan out, and here's how I see it.
I have enough HR's, but what I am lacking is speed. Rollins will put up 15+ more bags than Hanley, and probably have many more runs since he is leading off and on a better team. I look for Rollins to have one last hoorah, more like 2 years ago than last year.
Hamilton, he will put up better numbers than Snider. He may get hurt, but he is a freak of nature and the natural. Don't forget that Dunn called him the best player he has ever seen, including over A-Rod and Bonds. His upside is crazy.
And Peavy could be a sleeper cy-young candidate. He lit up competition at the end of last year in Cellular field, and you can look to 75 more K's than Floyd.
Take all that together, the fact that I have Pujols and Longoria, I think it makse sense to get more stats across the board rather than keep Hanley because he can go 35/20..
Problem is, you're assuming that in a vacuum that Rollins, Hamilton, and Peavy improve to a certain extent.
I'm a believer in Rollins, as he was unlucky in the first half of the season and still wound up with a 20 HR/30 SB season. He's incredibly streaky and Hanley's plate discipline is better to the point he's a shoo-in to hit a .300 average and over; Rollins has never hit .300.
Then, you have Hamilton. I think his injuries last season were of the fluky nature, but the fact that he tends to get banged up with his aggressive fielding, he's still an injury risk. I believe the reward is there, now that he's more likely to move back to his usual comfortable swing. Then again, you're facing the risk of not just injury, but if last season was a byproduct of declining peripherals than simply getting hurt or his swing being off.
Peavy's HR/FB has been relatively low, mainly because of Petco. He's moving to a hitter's park and if he's not totally healthy, he could be serving up more flyballs. Again, another risk.
It's nice that you're getting quality depth out of Hanley. However, Hanley is one of those players I'd be hard-pressed to move on without asking for even more. Maybe if you're taking on less risk with Hamilton/Peavy, but it's difficult to deal a guy who's a 30/30 candidate at SS who was in an adjustment period hitting 3rd.