Did I Do Good In My Draft?

[Fenris-77]

Sure Bruce is an injury risk, that's why he's an upside pick and not a sure thing. That doesn't change the fact that the Kapler comparison blows goats. Personally I probably wouldn't draft Bruce before the 10th or 11th round this year, and that's already leaning on a pretty optimistic set of predictions. Not Bill James optimistic mind you (38 Homers is way over the top), but optimistic. There's nothing homerish about pegging Bruce's potential at somewhere between James's massive optimism and the more conservative marcel or CHONE predictions though. You roll the dice on the injury thing, but the payoff for 500+ ABs makes it worth the risk if you don't over-draft him.

My main point was that comparing Bruce's raw totals to Kapler's simply isn't a useful excercise - Bruce is a much better and more productive player per AB. I have no issue with advising caution based on his injury potential though, and never suggested otherwise.

[Wadderboiz]

Recap:
The original post discusses a team that has already been drafted and what changes could be made. I offered up the suggestion of trading for a known commodity who will help the average category. Based on the posters team Bruce was, in my opinion the most viable trade candidate. So your analysis of where to draft Bruce, is useless, as a response to the original question.

If you're going to forecast on statistics for the upcoming year(s), you can't base your speculation on what that player "could" have done in prior years. Being the statistician that you are you should know that speculated numbers have to have some concrete numbers in which to forecast from. Therefore comparing Gabe Kapler's very similar first two seasons to that of Jay Bruce's first two seasons is not as unreasonable as you may believe.

And on a side note a where a player is selected in the MLB amateur draft is not the most reliable indicator of how a player will perform. So sure Kapler was the 1400th something pick, but I can assure you he was not the 1400th best player of that draft when all was said and done. 401 players were selected ahead of Albert Pujols...Mike Piazza was drated 62nd round. Need I say more?

[Fenris-77]

Recap:
The original post discusses a team that has already been drafted and what changes could be made. I offered up the suggestion of trading for a known commodity who will help the average category. Based on the posters team Bruce was, in my opinion the most viable trade candidate. So your analysis of where to draft Bruce, is useless, as a response to the original question.

Since I wasn't responding to the original question I suppose I'll be ok then. Like I said, it was just the comparison...

If you're going to forecast on statistics for the upcoming year(s), you can't base your speculation on what that player "could" have done in prior years. Being the statistician that you are you should know that speculated numbers have to have some concrete numbers in which to forecast from. Therefore comparing Gabe Kapler's very similar first two seasons to that of Jay Bruce's first two seasons is not as unreasonable as you may believe.

What he "could" have done has zero to do with why the Kapler comparison is teh suck. The comparison fails because the two guys don't produce at the same level. You pointed to their raw counting totals set side by side and said "look at how similar they are". Except their not because of the 20% difference in ABs. I wasn't hacking on the rest of your post, your thoughts about his injury potential, your integrity, or your mom - just the comparison to Kapler, which was poor when you made it and is still poor three pages and a mountain of sarcasm and justifiction later.

I do get that the two guys have some similarities in their %s btw, that's certainly true, but that's not the meat of the stat line you laid out. People are drafting Bruce based on his potential to accrue counting stats, which is something he's better than Kapler at, pure and simple. He was better than Kapler with less ABs too.

As far as why someone might choose to predict Bruce at something higher than the marcel average (for example, since I'd imagine that 59-21-58 on .254 is closer to your expectations), it might have something to do with him changing his stance post injury and seeing a very nice spike in his BABIP and line drive rate (and hitting .326). Obviously we don't want to overrate his sexy line from September and October, but I also think it's a mistake to just take the aggregate season totals and use those for predictive purposes without reference to the context.

And on a side note a where a player is selected in the MLB amateur draft is not the most reliable indicator of how a player will perform. So sure Kapler was the 1400th something pick, but I can assure you he was not the 1400th best player of that draft when all was said and done. 401 players were selected ahead of Albert Pujols...Mike Piazza was drated 62nd round. Need I say more?

I never posted anything about where the two guys were drafted.

[Wadderboiz]

My "argument is poor three pages later" only confirms your inability to step back from your ego and consider I've shot holes in everyone of your rebuttals. You continue to claim my comparison holds no water and counter by saying look what Bruce "would have done with more AB's" and what he "might" do based on reputation. Your counter arguments are purely speculative where as mine are cold hard figures. The only category Bruce surpasses Kapler is HR's. If Bruce is so superior than explain to me why in their first two seasons a top prospect was awarded less AB's than a player w/ far less potential. Again your lack of baseball know how causes you to miss the point that the more productive you are the more AB's you're given. Production trumps potential. Just ask Michael Bowden, potentially a stud SP in the Red Sox system who continues to be bumped from playing time by more productive veterans.

[Remotethumb]

This is one of the best discussions I have seen in a long time on this cafe. Keep it up. We can't afford to have this site fall into REGURGITATING yahoo, espn, sporting news, etc.....we need to be brave enough to have an opinion and stick to it!!!!!

Good job cafe-ers. Now my 2 cents on bruce.

In Chattanooga, when he was in the minor leagues, he walked up to the plate and hit the ball very, very far. (post-roid, mind you)

[Fenris-77]

My "argument is poor three pages later" only confirms your inability to step back from your ego and consider I've shot holes in everyone of your rebuttals.

See, that's funny, because I thought exactly the same thing about you and your ego. And the only you've shot a hole in so far is your foot.

You continue to claim my comparison holds no water and counter by saying look what Bruce "would have done with more AB's" and what he "might" do based on reputation. Your counter arguments are purely speculative where as mine are cold hard figures.

Well, no actually, I dismissed the comparison because you're comparing two sets of raw stats with different ABs. It's pretty basic stuff to realize that more ABs generate more counting stats. It's not about what he might have done though, it's about the production he got with what he had. Bruce hit more homeruns and almost exacty the same number of RBIs on 70 less ABs. That's a pretty clear cut indicator that he's a better prospect that Kap was in '99.

The only category Bruce surpasses Kapler is HR's. If Bruce is so superior than explain to me why in their first two seasons a top prospect was awarded less AB's than a player w/ far less potential.

This is complete nonsense. There are any number of reasons why Kapler might have gotten 70 more ABs thats season, and a lot of them have to do with the team context and nothing about the individual player. Oh wait, maybe it has something to do with the fact that Kapler played in 30 more games that year than Bruce did last year. So that means that Bruce was getting actually getting slightly more ABs in the games he did play. There goes another of your theories.

You just need to admit that the comparison was crap and move on.

Again your lack of baseball know how causes you to miss the point that the more productive you are the more AB's you're given. Production trumps potential. Just ask Michael Bowden, potentially a stud SP in the Red Sox system who continues to be bumped from playing time by more productive veterans.

Yes, yes, harp on my lack of "baseball knowhow" if it makes you feel better, but that doesn't make you any more correct. Bruce was more productive and was getting the ABs to show it. The only problem with his seaons was that he got hurt. If he hadn't gotten hurt he would have gotten about 440 ABs if he played 130 games. Your assertion that Bruce wasn't getting the same ABs as a lesser prospect in Kapler is completely without substance.

One reason the pundits are pushing Bruce is the whole 'big second half' theory. Players under 23 are the most likely to follow thorugh on a big second half, and that's looking at big increases in a vacuum, whereas with Bruce you also have the altered stance. Bruce made a concrete change to his batting stance and got some great results from that change. I think that makes it pretty reasonable to assume that he'll maintain some portion of that increase heading into this season.

I also think you need to look at his wildly low .222 BABIP from last season and realize that he's not going to be that unlucky this season and that will increase his production as well. Between the stance change (which had him hitting .326) and an almost assured increase in BABIP, I think it's more than reasonable to predict Bruce to hit something between .270 and .285 this year. A predicition of .270 happens to split the difference between the CHONE and marcel predictions for Bruce, so I'm pretty comfortable laying it out there as a number

Even If Bruce doesn't get any better, aside from an average increase to .270, and his BABIP moves to something more reasonable, he'll be very productive. At his age it's reasonable to assume that he might actually improve his skills tooh. He's still an injury risk, but that's why his ADP is somewhere around 114.

[Wadderboiz]

I'm comparing each player's first two seasons. Their figures for two seasons are similar. Kapler saw more games and more AB's for a number of reasons, some of which will remain factors in the upcoming season, thus affecting the amount of ABs/games Bruce will appear in. Again see Sheets/Harden/Fernando Martinez/Bowden...you've yet to counter that argument. I'm not arguing that Gabe Kapler is a better player than Jay Bruce.

I don't know what statistics your fanstasy BASEketball league is going to consider but typically ABs don't get you fantasy points nor do supposed ABs. So yes Bruce may have been more productive per AB, however at the end of a fantasy season the counting totals are not divided by the number of AB's to determine production, after 162 games the player with 19 SB's sets you higher in the standings than the player with 7. So when Jay Bruce hits 20 HRs this year in 450 ABs because he hits .250, I'd still rather have a player who hits .280 in 600 ABs and hits 20 HRs.

[Fenris-77]

I'm comparing each player's first two seasons. Their figures for two seasons are similar. Kapler saw more games and more AB's for a number of reasons, some of which will remain factors in the upcoming season, thus affecting the amount of ABs/games Bruce will appear in. Again see Sheets/Harden/Fernando Martinez/Bowden...you've yet to counter that argument. I'm not arguing that Gabe Kapler is a better player than Jay Bruce.

Alright, we're agreed on that last point then. As for the ABs, injury is the only factor of any susbstance there in Bruce's AB total. If you're assuming that he'll be just as injured this year then yeah, that'll impact his counting stats (just like it would with any player). Other than that the Reds aren't exactly swimming in talent and I don't really think Gomes is likey to push Bruce too hard for
ABs if Bruce is healthy and hitting .270. So really, you can hint all you like about his limited ABs, but why exactly is it that they'll be limited? I don't see any obvious reason they would be. Maybe you do and you've just been waiting to fill us all in. If that's the case by all means...

I don't know what statistics your fanstasy BASEketball league is going to consider but typically ABs don't get you fantasy points nor do supposed ABs.

No, obviously leagues don't count ABs for fantasy purposes, but esitmating ABs and having a handle on how a guy will produce given X number of ABs is a very basic element of baseball stats (exactly like mpg is for hoops players). I think you're being obstinate on purpose about this, so given how blindingly obvious my basic point was I'm going to stop beating a dead horse. The ABs matter, end of argument.

So yes Bruce may have been more productive per AB, however at the end of a fantasy season the counting totals are not divided by the number of AB's to determine production, after 162 games the player with 19 SB's sets you higher in the standings than the player with 7. So when Jay Bruce hits 20 HRs this year in 450 ABs because he hits .250, I'd still rather have a player who hits .280 in 600 ABs and hits 20 HRs.

Sure you would, so would everyone I'm sure. However, 20HRs and .250 isn't really a median projection for Bruce. I never suggested that production get averaged out by ABs either, all I did was point out how productive Bruce was per AB, and how much better he was in that regard than the guy you chose to compare him to. Using your example above, if we assume the team has 7 other hitters who hit an average of .285 on 500 ABs each, then the team with the first guy goes down to hitting .281 and the team with the second guy goes down to hitting .284. That first guy only need to hit .273 for the difference to be exactly the same too (team BA at .284). Let's take this example a little further...

Obviously you mean for that guy hitting .250 to be Bruce. I'll come right out and say that I'm very comfortable, based on Bruce's stance change and BABIP, to predict he'll hit around .270 (if not better). If I'm right, then the difference is already nil on the average front. Beyond that, if Bruce does indeed get 450 ABs, he'll probably hit closer to 30 HRs than 20 (27 or 28 based on last year's numbers) and if he creeps up closer to 500 ABs that number should almost assuredly be around 30. Let's split the difference and say he'll get 475 ABs. At 475 ABs and using last year's average numbers, Bruce should hit exactly 30 HRs. A guy who's going to hit 30HRs and bat .270 is a whole lot more valuable than a guy who's going to bat .250 and hit 20.

Guys are keeping Bruce, and trading for him, based on the chances that he's going to produce something closer to my predictions for him. Your predictions for him are obviously a lot lower, but I think I've done a lot more to support my contention that he's unlikely to bat even as low as .250 this season, whereas you've done nothing at all to support you predictions for his statline.

[Wadderboiz]

Guys are keeping Bruce, and trading for him, based on the chances that he's going to produce something closer to my predictions for him. Your predictions for him are obviously a lot lower, but I think I've done a lot more to support my contention that he's unlikely to bat even as low as .250 this season, whereas you've done nothing at all to support you predictions for his statline.

I find it quite humerous how you use last years actual production to estimate a trend for 30 HRs, yet you use you theory of an improved batting stance and theoretical "would haves" to conjure up a .270 or better batting average. All of a sudden someone who doesn't watch baseball is a scouting expert/hitting instructor.

Read up a little the Reds have several prospects that they are trying to find a position for...They resigned Gomes for veteran stability, they're also rumored to be in trade talks for Gary Matthews Jr. How confident as an organization can you be of your young OF's if you're looking to bring on Matthews Jr. The way I see it is when Bruce hits at the .250 pace he's shown against major league pitching he'll lose at bats to other prospects in the system as well as the veterans who are more proven and consistan. I guess maybe the Reds haven't read your insightful predictions for Jay Bruce this year.

[NittanyLions1]

Guys are keeping Bruce, and trading for him, based on the chances that he's going to produce something closer to my predictions for him. Your predictions for him are obviously a lot lower, but I think I've done a lot more to support my contention that he's unlikely to bat even as low as .250 this season, whereas you've done nothing at all to support you predictions for his statline.

I find it quite humerous how you use last years actual production to estimate a trend for 30 HRs, yet you use you theory of an improved batting stance and theoretical "would haves" to conjure up a .270 or better batting average. All of a sudden someone who doesn't watch baseball is a scouting expert/hitting instructor.

Read up a little the Reds have several prospects that they are trying to find a position for...They resigned Gomes for veteran stability, they're also rumored to be in trade talks for Gary Matthews Jr. How confident as an organization can you be of your young OF's if you're looking to bring on Matthews Jr. The way I see it is when Bruce hits at the .250 pace he's shown against major league pitching he'll lose at bats to other prospects in the system as well as the veterans who are more proven and consistan. I guess maybe the Reds haven't read your insightful predictions for Jay Bruce this year.

Just wanted to point out that before Adam Lind went gonzo last year he hit .238 in 290 at bats in 2008 for the Blue Jays. Guess they should have just quickly gave up on him and moved to other prospects that didnt have as much promise. Granted Alonso (the only prospect on Bruce's level as far as I know) is a great prospect and had a good year last year at A and AA but I would say Bruce, after hitting the cover off the ball for a high average at several minor league stops, deserves a bit more time and I don't expect the Reds to promote Alonso and drop Bruce. I would think they choose to play Alonso in AAA (give him more time in the OF) and if IF they bring him up it would not be at the expense of Bruce (unless he is hitting below the Mendoza or something). As for the veterans, do you really think they would give Gomes and Matthews Jr at bats over Bruce? Come on, they aren't the answer so why waste time with them! They build for the future by letting Bruce get used to major league pitching...he hit well over .300 at several minor league stops so they have to believe he can hit at least .280 in the majors.