Trade my 3rd pick (technically 8th) for V-Mart?

[zebulon]

12 Team Yahoo H2H league. We keep 4 regular players + 1 rookie.
My current keepers are Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, Wainwright, and Aaron Hill, with Reimold as my rookie.

Another guy is offering me V-Mart for my 3rd pick (which is actually the 8th pick overall when you factor in the keepers).

I would replace Hill with V-Mart as my 4th keeper. There definitely aren't many good C options, and especially since V-Mart will get some time at 1B, he is attractive since 1) he should get over 500 ABs in the Catcher slot, and 2) he will qualify at 1B as well.

I just don't feel all that warm and fuzzy about Hill. He should regress, and even though if he hits 25 HRs, he just feels like an AL version of Dan Uggla with a slightly higher AVG, though in our league we use OBP instead of AVG.

So, is it worth doing or just stick with Hill and preserve the draft pick?

[raiders_umpire]

I would hold onto my draft picks and pass on the VMart trade.

[Remotethumb]

That's a little too much to give on your part.

I'm really beginning to wonder why Aaron Hill is being short-changed this year. Even Sporting News contradicts itself by stating "you will be paying more for last season's numbers" and "out of nowhere hit 36 homers"

Then they project his numbers : .290/30/101

Not bad at all for 2B. And since most sites/pubs are saying Hill was a fluke, I'm getting him late(r) in drafts. But I still think he's worth keeping, definitely.

[zebulon]

He's now revised his offer to make it his 4th rounder instead of 3rd. And by 4th round, that really means the 9th round overall since we keep 5.

I pick 7th out of 12 teams this year, and I would suspect that if I held on to Hill, there would be a big chance that V-Mart is taken before my pick. On the flip side, I am doubtful that Hill would get snapped up before my pick.

I think Sporting News projections are a bit high. Hill didn't really show any improvement in FB% last year and all of his other indicators really didn't improve much or stayed the same as in 2007 which leads me to belive that he just got lucky a lot of times last year. I expect somewhere between 25-30 HRs for Hill this season, more toward 25 though which, agreed still makes him a top 2B, but I think V-Mart is a top option at an even scarcer position and on top of that he will play 1B and DH which should keep him in the lineup virtually every day which you really don't get from the C slot which I think boosts his value. Also, we use OBP instead of AVG and Hill's OBP is pretty pedestrian. He has more value in terms of AVG. V-Mart on the other hand projects an OBP around .380 which is super elite for the C slot I think.