Who don't you trust?

[hscsoph]

Ellsbury (not worth it)!!!
Youkilis
BJ Upton
Jayson Werth
Mauer
Adam Lind
Morales
Adam Jones
Figgins

[Neato Torpedo]

I don't trust any hitter with a high strikeout rate, any pitcher with a high fly ball rate, any pitcher in a hitters ball park, any hitter in a pitchers ball park, any player who had an injury last year, any player who has any type of injury history in the past, any player who is overdue for an injury plagued year, any control pitcher who lacks dominance, any dominant pitcher that lacks control, any pitcher with a high workload, any hitter who is a free swinger, any player with an unexpected bump in performance, any player with an unexpected decline in performance, any hitter batting 6th or later in the order, any hitter with a poor supporting cast, any pitcher lacking offensive support, any pitcher who throws a high percentage of breaking balls, any player with a variance in home/road splits, righty/lefty splits, or day game/night game splits, any young player lacking experience, and any old player bound for a decline in performance.

So who's left??????

Dexter Fowler.

[West]

Alot of people have mentioned BJ Upton and Mark Reynolds. I think Reynolds' MDP is too high as well, as it shows him going towards the end of the second round. I wouldn't want his contact rate on my roster at the price of a second round pick. The MDP leads me to believe that even in a league where he is dropping to the late range of his MDP (late 3rd early 4th), he still wouldn't drop far enough for me to want to take a risk on him. I would rather take Adam Dunn in the late 5th- early 6th (MDP currently at 60) than Reynolds a few rounds earlier and I think most would agree.
Upton is similar (MDP 58). Why would you take him in the late 5th when Shane Victorino, a consistent player in a solid lineup who also runs, is available 2 or even 3 rounds later (MDP 83) ?

Add to that list:
Andre Ethier (terrible LHP splits)
Matt Cain - unusually low BABIP, HR/FB, unusually high LOB% makes that ERA unsustainable.
Michael Bourne - I can see him hitting .260 at best.

In terms of MDP alone, I don't like:
Jeter
Sizemore
Tulowitzki

I wouldn't put too much stock in Wright's offseason workout regimen. It's nice to see, but for big numbers he needs a lineup around him. I would expect 20-30 home runs as long as he stays healthy. I think 20 is definitely his floor as well. He still should go no later than the mid second round with his SB and avg potential.

West

[kab21]

I also am concerned about Bourn's BA (and thus OBP).

[Neato Torpedo]

I don't trust any hitter with a high strikeout rate, any pitcher with a high fly ball rate, any pitcher in a hitters ball park, any hitter in a pitchers ball park, any player who had an injury last year, any player who has any type of injury history in the past, any player who is overdue for an injury plagued year, any control pitcher who lacks dominance, any dominant pitcher that lacks control, any pitcher with a high workload, any hitter who is a free swinger, any player with an unexpected bump in performance, any player with an unexpected decline in performance, any hitter batting 6th or later in the order, any hitter with a poor supporting cast, any pitcher lacking offensive support, any pitcher who throws a high percentage of breaking balls, any player with a variance in home/road splits, righty/lefty splits, or day game/night game splits, any young player lacking experience, and any old player bound for a decline in performance.

So who's left??????

Dexter Fowler.

Oh, and CLINT YOUNG (all caps).

[smoovethug]

I don't trust any hitter with a high strikeout rate, any pitcher with a high fly ball rate, any pitcher in a hitters ball park, any hitter in a pitchers ball park, any player who had an injury last year, any player who has any type of injury history in the past, any player who is overdue for an injury plagued year, any control pitcher who lacks dominance, any dominant pitcher that lacks control, any pitcher with a high workload, any hitter who is a free swinger, any player with an unexpected bump in performance, any player with an unexpected decline in performance, any hitter batting 6th or later in the order, any hitter with a poor supporting cast, any pitcher lacking offensive support, any pitcher who throws a high percentage of breaking balls, any player with a variance in home/road splits, righty/lefty splits, or day game/night game splits, any young player lacking experience, and any old player bound for a decline in performance.

So who's left??????

Dexter Fowler.

Oh, and CLINT YOUNG (all caps).

and Hammerin Jason Heyward.

[Pogotheostrich]

I also am concerned about Bourn's BA (and thus OBP).

I expect him to lose 15-20 points of BA and OBP from his 2009 stats.

[kaiser]

and Hammerin Jason Heyward.

That's a good one. I'm a Braves fan, and as hopeful as I would like to be, I can't imagine that he could possibly live up to the heights that are being predicted for him.

It brings to mind a certain Sports Illustrated "Greatest Rookie Ever" coverboy from the Braves who is now playing right field for the Mets.

[Verminator]

I don't trust anyone EXCEPT Wandy Rodriguez when he is pitching at home!