The Artful Dodger wrote:Personally, I've found it difficult to pull the trigger on drafting David Wright in two drafts. If it's all a matter of him changing his mechanics again, then I trust '09 was an anomaly. There's a sneaky aura of Jeff Francoeur circa 2008 in that David Wright's guns thread.
I agree with the poster above, Frenchy was never a superstar, he was just a free swinger with some talent. Wright is an absolute superstar who had 1 bad season and it was an anomally. I dont have Wright on any teams yet but as a baseball fan, im POSITIVE he will bounceback to atleast 20+ HR, if not continue to progress and hit 30+. Obviously, youre gonna view me as a 'homer' which i can understand but Wright is a standup ball player, he trains extra extra hard and really devotes himself to the game. Hes not a lazy shit like Andruw Jones, whos fallen off the map due to his laziness. Wright works too hard and hes too talented to not bounceback this season! BOOK IT!!!
I was being facetious with the Francoeur comment.
Again, like I said, if his weird 2009 was due to his concentration on hitting for line drives and that only (something that can be fixed), I'd be more confident in Wright bouncing back. However, he fared worse away from Citi Field, his BABIP was really quite high for a hitter that wasn't making great contact as frequently as hoped, and his K rate had shot up at the expense of his contact rate. Granted, the latter part may have been attributed to the lack of lineup protection (no Reyes, Delgado, or Beltran at one time or another), and I think he'll rebound too. Taking into account these factors, there has to be some doubt as to how much he'll rebound because it wasn't all necessarily a case of bad luck as to how and why he fell off the way he did from his usual production.
Im well aware that Wright struggled on the road as much/if not worse than he did at home but I just think his entire approach at the plate lastyr was off, for whatever reason. Im still very confident that he will rebound this season back to his usual 30 hr 100 rbi form. His work ethic is far too great for me to write him off after 1 bad season. As you stated Artful, he didnt have protection lastyr either and this season hes got his table setter back and his protection is there so hell def see better pitches to hit.
10-Team 8x8 h2h
C VMart 1B MCab 2B Stewart 3B Zimmerman SS Ramirez OF Manny,BJUpton,Braun Ut Rios Ut Pierre BN Quentin,Snider,Berkman,Bruce
SP Kershaw,Gallardo,Hanson,Liriano,Holland,JGarcia,Romero RP KRod,Marmol,Feliz,Wagner,Dotel DL BAnderson
I dont know much about mark Reynolds, but I have watched him fall into the 4th-5th rd or later pretty regularly which seems like pretty good value. I know he led the league in Ks, so thats a red flag, but other than that, why else is he being listed on so many avoid lists? I can understand if people dont want to draft him in the 2nd or 3rd of course, but from the small eyewitness sample I have seen, he usually isnt going that high anyway. He's one player that his listed MDP (23) doesnt make sense as I have never once seen him go that high.
So a few questions: Other than high Ks, please tell me more about Reynolds as he only showed up on my radar last yr. If he falls into the 4th-5th, would you still avoid him? Are you seeing him go as early as 23rd overall, or has your experience been like mine where he is drafted a good couple rds after that?
B.J. Upton. This guy was not even even start-worthy for huge stretches of time last season, and he accumulated most of his good stats in one month wherein people said he was finally over his recovery from shoulder surgery. I also don't like ballplayers that don't run out ground-outs. Loads of talent, 5-tool capability, crappy attitude. Maybe he manages to string together a .290-20hr-40sb season, but he could just as easily fall flat on his face and go .245-8hr-40sb and that is not worth it in the 4th round to me.
I don't trust any hitter with a high strikeout rate, any pitcher with a high fly ball rate, any pitcher in a hitters ball park, any hitter in a pitchers ball park, any player who had an injury last year, any player who has any type of injury history in the past, any player who is overdue for an injury plagued year, any control pitcher who lacks dominance, any dominant pitcher that lacks control, any pitcher with a high workload, any hitter who is a free swinger, any player with an unexpected bump in performance, any player with an unexpected decline in performance, any hitter batting 6th or later in the order, any hitter with a poor supporting cast, any pitcher lacking offensive support, any pitcher who throws a high percentage of breaking balls, any player with a variance in home/road splits, righty/lefty splits, or day game/night game splits, any young player lacking experience, and any old player bound for a decline in performance.
So who's left??????
When it comes to exaggerating, I always give 110%.