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auction average prices

Postby ngub12 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 11:46 am

Just wondering where is the best place to go for information on what players go for on average in auction drafts.

Thanks for the help

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Re: auction average prices

Postby ngub12 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 12:13 pm

For clarification I'm looking for a list of how much any given players goes for (on average) in an auction draft.
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Re: auction average prices

Postby Chicago 2 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 2:15 pm

I saw this feature on Yahoo, but it looks like they will not be showing the average prices until the real drafts start.

If your league uses keepers, instead of averages it is helpful to figure inflation and this gives you an idea of the max you can expect to pay.

((# Teams x Budget)/(Total Money Spent on Keepers)/((# Teams x Budget)/(Sum Value of Kept Players) = Inflation

Then just times the inflation by the player's face value and that is a bit of what a player might go for.


I am not sure if you can find average auction prices yet, but if anyone knows I am interested in seeing this and wondering if there is a way to figure a player's price range in a non-keeper league.

Thanks.
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Re: auction average prices

Postby flloyd » Tue Feb 23, 2010 7:49 pm

ESPN had this last yer but it doesn't look like it's available yet this year.
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Re: auction average prices

Postby bigwords » Fri Feb 26, 2010 6:06 pm

I'm hopeful that ESPN or CBS or someone will post average auction values, but until then, there's a log function formula one can apply to average draft position data to translate that to expected auction values. Perhaps not perfect, but good enough to get some sense.

I have applied the formula to come up with auction values for the top 200 players. See here:

http://bit.ly/bbLB3N
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Re: auction average prices

Postby dmattingly23 » Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:47 pm

Pujols for 58, wow seems kind of high.
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Re: auction average prices

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:49 pm

What kind of league are you playing in? 10-team, 12-team, keeper, re-draft?
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Re: auction average prices

Postby bigwords » Sat Feb 27, 2010 8:00 pm

I've actually seen Pujols go for higher than 58 in some mock auctions. Doesn't shock me at all.

Especially since as I've noted time and time again from doing research on the subject, auction guides tend to vastly underestimate the prices for premium talent.

The thing about this is, the people who write auction guides have a natural human bias towards "even" spreads between players. It's more natural, for example, to say that a player goes for $14 and the next best player after that goes for $13.

Reality is not so neat.

There tends to be great demand on those premium players. Not everyone can have them, obviously.

In addition, a lot of competitors are getting smart about value over replacement. They know that the $3 player is not very different from the guy on waiver to the $1 player, so why invest those two extra bucks? What you tend to see is a lot of inflation on the top end of talent and then a lot of $1 players. Auction guides vastly overestimate the amount of players who go in the middle ranges.
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Re: auction average prices

Postby Ender » Sat Feb 27, 2010 11:13 pm

Really depends on league settings so this question is really hard to answer. I mean a default yahoo league and a deep league are night and day when it comes to auction values.
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Re: auction average prices

Postby swyck » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:02 pm

Looks like Yahoo is showing average auction prices now in draft analysis. They were all zeros a week ago so they must have just set it up. Maybe they wanted a number of drafts before they enabled it.

I wonder if this counts real draft and mocks? IMO mocks are fun, useful, and informative but they lack a bit of reality. Once the chips are down people change how they will draft\bid.
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