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carlos lee... whaddya think?

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carlos lee... whaddya think?

Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 20, 2004 2:59 pm

i nabbed carlos lee around round 8-10 today... he's looking like he could become a solid 30/100 guy, with the upside for 15-20 steals...

but beyond that, do you think carlos lee could go up another level and go 35-40/115-130? maybe even 30/30?

i like to pick players who are going to produce at, say, a base level of 25/85/10, like lee... maybe not wholly rely on them (tho team #3 is calling for me to do that), but this way have players with a solid performance base and a potential for more.

sammy sosa is likely going to improve on his 40/100 from a year ago. i think lee might go .280/30/120/20, what do you think?
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Postby KolbSaves » Sat Mar 20, 2004 4:04 pm

I don't know if he'll swipe that many but he'll be close everywhere else.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sat Mar 20, 2004 4:06 pm

I think that your predictions are a little optimistic. He's a good player, but not a great one. Though he drove in 113 last year, he drove in 84 and 80 the two years prior. Though he stole 18 bases last year, he stole 1 the year before (and 17 the year before that). His OBP dropped last year from .359 to .331.

I've got him ranked as the 21st best OF. He'll help your team, but don't count on him to carry it. He's got a career OPS of .830. That's just not great for a corner OF.
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Postby warrick95 » Sat Mar 20, 2004 4:56 pm

He's one of those guys whom I doubt will repeat his stats last year and thus I'll avoid...others are Lopez, Sheffield, Posednik...
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Postby mikcou » Sat Mar 20, 2004 7:46 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:I think that your predictions are a little optimistic. He's a good player, but not a great one. Though he drove in 113 last year, he drove in 84 and 80 the two years prior. Though he stole 18 bases last year, he stole 1 the year before (and 17 the year before that). His OBP dropped last year from .359 to .331.

I've got him ranked as the 21st best OF. He'll help your team, but don't count on him to carry it. He's got a career OPS of .830. That's just not great for a corner OF.


Its probably more likely that he will keep being able to steal as there was only 1 year that he didnt. The RBI's are a harder thing to predict although I think he could probably make it to 100-110
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sat Mar 20, 2004 10:22 pm

The problem with Lee is the wild fluctuations. His steals for the last three years: 17,1,18. His walks for the last 3 years: 38, 75, 37.

Plus, looking at him I just don't think that he's in the best shape. I don't know. I guess I just don't like guys that fluctuate so wildly. Call it a gut feeling, but I'm staying away.
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Postby DieHardCubbie » Sun Mar 21, 2004 2:27 am

Absolutely Adequate wrote:The problem with Lee is the wild fluctuations. His steals for the last three years: 17,1,18. His walks for the last 3 years: 38, 75, 37.


Odd that his highest steal years were his lowest walk years.... :-?
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Postby slackjaw » Sun Mar 21, 2004 2:44 am

El Caballo, huh? I heard an amusing (and ostensibly true) story on the radio about how he got his head stuck in a revolving door at the team's hotel. I guess he is not what you would call a cerebral guy.

Seriously, Lee is an enigma. He is constantly looking like he is going to bust out and have a year that makes Sox fans forget to forget to go to the park (yes, that was intentional), but he just keeps missing it by a little bit. He looks like he's kinda pudgy, but he has decent speed, and hits for power. I think he will be a good acquisition this year. I think that he is pretty well protected in the order, and there does not seem to be anything distracting him this year. I'd say that he will likely wind up having a .295/35/120 year, or thereabouts, this year. I think that he will get a lot of chances to steal with Ozzie Guillen calling the shots this year. Figure 12-15 as a baseline and figure that anything more is gravy.
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