I'm not a sports-better but my buddy is and he's asked me to help him pick a few teams out this year. I gave him the Dodgers to win the NL West last year and he won a nice sum of cash. This year I'm looking at over/under win totals for the season and the lines were just released.
ARI 85.5 ATL 82.5 BAL 70.5 BOS 94.5 CHC CHW 82.5 CIN 79.5 CLE 83.5 COL 80 DET 80.5 FLA 79.5 HOU 76.5 KAN 74.5 LAA 87.5 LAD 84.5 MIL 81 MIN 85.5 NYM 89 NYY 96.5 OAK 81.5 PHI 89.5 PIT 68.5 SDP 68.5 SFG 79.5 SEA 79.5 STL 84 TAM 87.5 TEX 77.5 TOR 78.5 WAS 65.5
Just looking things over briefly, I like Seattle over 79.5, Toronto under 78.5 and the Mets under 89. Seattle won 85 last year. I know their pythag had them at 75 wins, but Cliff Lee was worth 5 wins by himself last year and that doesn't factor in Figgins/Bradley and the fact that the Angels are weaker this year as well. Toronto won only 75 last year and now they have no Halladay. And the Mets are better than their 70 wins last year, but 89 seems like a stretch to me.
Damn DBack were one of the teams I was waiting to see what the number was. That seems much too high to bet.
I've had pretty good success in the past on Season Over/Unders by taking teams in the mid to high 70's to go over. Even if teams aren't in a pennant chase they will be shooting to finish at or above .500 Those last few weeks are what makes or breaks these bets.
So far I like:
Atl 82.5 (Bobby Cox's last year, I'm thinking they go get him something at the deadline) Col 80 (That seems real low) Minn looks good. They should have a monster year. Padres 68.5 (This was a team I was hoping would have a real low number. I think they can win 70-75) Giants still at 79.5 is weird. Lineup is better and bullpen is better. Seattle at 79.5 ? These don't seem right. What site are they from? Texas is a team I think could have an outside shot at 85 wins.
What site are these from?
Last edited by Maris09 on Thu Feb 18, 2010 2:21 am, edited 4 times in total.
Piggybacking, but I'd take the Mets and Cleveland under, the Mariners and Rangers over
New ones: WAS over 65.5. Their pythag was 66-96 last year, they got a couple of SP that could be OK, and they actually have a few decent ballplayers on that team.
KC under 74.5 Last year their pythag was also 66-96. I don't see where they picked up 8 games this offseason. Yes, they have a couple decent prospects. Yes, they got rid of Mike Jacobs. Yes, they have Zach Greinke. But that's not a joke division, I think 70 wins is more likely....
Are you sure these aren't the over/under's for last year?, because some of these lines seems like the betting site is just asking to lose money. For example, AZ winning 85 last year would have been a decent line, considered we didn't know Webb was going to pitch only 4 innings last year.