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Stolen base category value in h2h league

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Stolen base category value in h2h league

Postby bay51 » Mon Feb 15, 2010 1:44 pm

I understand the value of sbs in a roto league, but in a h2h league, given that stolen bases are so unpredictable, how much does that change the value of a player whose worth is mostly in 1 category? For example, Bourn is considered a top 100 player or close to it by many judging my his mdp due to his sb contributions. However, in the weeks that he faces a good catcher he won't get many stolen bases, bringing his value down a ton. And the weeks he plays a bad catcher he'll run wild, probably overkilling in that category. So in a h2h league, wouldn't that decrease the value of players like Ellsbury, Crawford, and Jose Reyes?
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Re: Stolen base category value in h2h league

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 15, 2010 2:12 pm

Generally speaking HR/RBI are the most reliable stats for H2H and SB and AVG are the least reliable. K/WHIP are the most reliable for pitching, SV/W/ERA are the least reliable with ERA becoming more reliable when you have a lot of starts(streaming in daily, stacking 2 start guys in weekly etc).

As for SB, one important thing to remember is that SB is probably the easiest hitting stat in the game to pick up off the free agent list. It is pretty rare to pick up a 20+ HR guy mid season in a deeper league but there are always 20 SB guys available every season. Most young players that come up steal at least 5 bases if not 10-15, even a guy like Fielder had 7 his first season. There are always going to be more SB available during the season than your projection pool suggests.
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Re: Stolen base category value in h2h league

Postby SumG » Mon Feb 15, 2010 2:28 pm

I think the most important thing about SBs in a head to head league that varies from roto is that you don't want to relying heavily on one guy for your production. Like you mentioned, if that one guy faces a good catcher, or tweaks a hammy, or any other number of things, you're hosed in the category. I think a much better strategy is to focus on getting a bunch of 20 SB guys that you can plug in all over your lineup. That said, the number of players that can post 20+ SBs while still being viable in other categories is very small, so you have to go into the draft knowing this and making it a focus. People always say that SBs come into the league, and that is true, but I generally don't want those SBs on my team, as they usually come saddled with a .250 Avg, under 10 HRs, and very few RBIs.
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Re: Stolen base category value in h2h league

Postby dmendro » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:30 pm

If your H2H matchup counts as one game, it's pretty important. In these leagues, you can stack 6 categories and get a win almost every week. So, having a 40+ SB guy on your team is huge based on your matchup.

However if you are in a league that counts each category for H2H as a w/l, you can't sacrifice any category. Having a good balanced team is always best. 20/20 guys becomes as valuables as 30/0 or 0/30 guys, if not more valuable.
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Re: Stolen base category value in h2h league

Postby Carnac » Mon Feb 15, 2010 6:03 pm

I like to draft 2 or 3 guys that can get 15-20 SB and still have some power and hit for average. Bump up the hitters that have moderate SB potential and still give you good stats in the other areas. During the draft I will use SB as a tiebreaker (all other things being pretty equal). There are only a few SB/Avg guys that I put on my list and usually end up not drafting them unless they fit my team during the latter rounds. Look to draft for balance and not punt any catagories, if you can.

Good luck
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Re: Stolen base category value in h2h league

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Tue Feb 16, 2010 6:20 am

Ender wrote:Generally speaking HR/RBI are the most reliable stats for H2H and SB and AVG are the least reliable. K/WHIP are the most reliable for pitching, SV/W/ERA are the least reliable with ERA becoming more reliable when you have a lot of starts(streaming in daily, stacking 2 start guys in weekly etc).

As for SB, one important thing to remember is that SB is probably the easiest hitting stat in the game to pick up off the free agent list. It is pretty rare to pick up a 20+ HR guy mid season in a deeper league but there are always 20 SB guys available every season. Most young players that come up steal at least 5 bases if not 10-15, even a guy like Fielder had 7 his first season. There are always going to be more SB available during the season than your projection pool suggests.


In H2H the problem with that, that if you are looking to pick up that stolen base guy, you already lost several weeks in that cat. Theres no way to make that right, while in roto you can make up ground.
Identifying the need is not enough.
By the time you identified the problem, and that could be like after like 5-6 weeks, you either faced mediocre stealing teams and mostly lost (cause if you win you dont feel the need to improve I suppose), and now facing those with the real speed, you wont stand a chance, or you faced the speedy teams and you got beaten up so bad that pickin up a mediocre one dimensional 15-20 SB guy seemingly wont do much good but hurt in other categories.
And thats only the half of it.
Identifying that runner, who will help you the most is not that simple either.
My observation that players use to steal more early in the season and less towards the end. So you might see a guy on waivers who already has 8 SBs after 6 weeks ( :-L ), but might give you 7-10 the rest of the way. That might give you a rare win, but not going to save you in H2H.

My advise is to draft a team that is at least in the middle of the pack speedvise in your league, and a reliable, high octane speedster wont hurt on draft day either, for the right price.
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Re: Stolen base category value in h2h league

Postby galante22 » Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:16 pm

sbs are still pretty important, you cant sacrifice any category. the best strategy is a get as many 20/20 5 star solid players as possible. for example i have tulowitski,arod, and werth in my keeper league. all can contribute in all 5 categories(werths average hurts alittle cant lie). if i get 1 or 2 more 20-20 type players, a power hitter, a average hitter, and a sb guy ill be very well balanced and not relying on any one guy too heavily for any particular category. ill have hopefully 5 guys capable of stealin 15-20 bases and another that will steal between 30-40 ideally. then i have hopefully 4 guys who can hit 30 hrs and a few that will hit at least 20. rbis and runs typically come with hrs so im not worried about those too much, but i always try to keep a balance
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