Must decide by the weekend

[anti elian]

I'll spare you the details of my league's keeper inflation system and boil it down to the tough decisions. 10 teams, standard 5x5 roto, mixed league, auction drafting. Standard positions plus 1 MI, 1 CI, 5 total OFers, 3 Util. 1750 innings pitched cap. Long benches pushing us about 400 deep in the player pool. I'll be keeping:

Pujols
Holliday
Sandoval
Wainwright
Jeter or Cano
Haren or Kershaw & Andrew Bailey

First, Jeter or Cano? I'm not concerned with anything beyond this season because I don't think it's likely the inflation system will let me keep either again.

Second, normally Haren is the obvious choice, but Bailey has the prized SP/RP eligibility in ESPN. We only use 2 RP spots so having him will likely ensure a first place finish in saves (knock on wood). I could see some serious bidding for him at the auction.

[dave knight]

Cano
Haren

[MaudDib]

I will take Cano over Jeter.

I like Kershaw more than Haren. I will probably be in the minority here and this is also dependent on cost and inflation but Kershaw is on the brink of being a stud where as Haren is on the brink of falling off. As for Bailey, the SP/RP is intriguing but closers are so volatile that I just don't think you can take him.

[dave knight]

I will take Cano over Jeter.

I like Kershaw more than Haren. I will probably be in the minority here and this is also dependent on cost and inflation but Kershaw is on the brink of being a stud where as Haren is on the brink of falling off. As for Bailey, the SP/RP is intriguing but closers are so volatile that I just don't think you can take him.

Kershaw is very good, but his control is an open question and could lead to a 1.3+ WHIP because of walks while I expect Haren to stay in the 1.0-1.1 range.

[MaudDib]

I realize that there is a difference between the two pitchers but Haren is 29 and has been pretty reliable over the past number of years. This is likely to change at some point as SP inevitably wear down and rarely make it past 30 (if they can even make it that far) as a top 10 SP. Kershaw had some rough spots last year but he is only 22 and should only get better. So yes he was a tad wild but I would expect him to make adjustments and be a top 10 pitcher as early as next year. So in other words buy now on Kershaw and sell on Haren. I would rather be one year early than one year late in both keeping and dropping pitchers.

[dave knight]

I realize that there is a difference between the two pitchers but Haren is 29 and has been pretty reliable over the past number of years. This is likely to change at some point as SP inevitably wear down and rarely make it past 30 (if they can even make it that far) as a top 10 SP. Kershaw had some rough spots last year but he is only 22 and should only get better. So yes he was a tad wild but I would expect him to make adjustments and be a top 10 pitcher as early as next year. So in other words buy now on Kershaw and sell on Haren. I would rather be one year early than one year late in both keeping and dropping pitchers.

Kershaw might be a top 10 pitcher next year. He might not be.

Haren is a top 5 pitcher Right Now. We're playing fantasy baseball this year, right?

You don't toss back a top 5 pitcher because the other guy might be top 10. I don't buy the past 30 point, either. First, pitchers don't follow the general hitter aging curve of peak at 28 and then decline. Second, elite players generally stay such through most of their 30s. Also, Kershaw is actually a 2 category issue: walks (WHIP) and going deep into games (Wins).

I'm sympathetic for playing for the future, but it's gone a bit overboard in some cases. Whether you're a year early or a year late, you're still wrong, and Kershaw has more issues to work out.

[HOOTIE]

Cano
Haren over Wainwright
Kershaw

[dave knight]

I'd also take Haren over Wainwright if a decision comes down to that.

[MaudDib]

I realize that there is a difference between the two pitchers but Haren is 29 and has been pretty reliable over the past number of years. This is likely to change at some point as SP inevitably wear down and rarely make it past 30 (if they can even make it that far) as a top 10 SP. Kershaw had some rough spots last year but he is only 22 and should only get better. So yes he was a tad wild but I would expect him to make adjustments and be a top 10 pitcher as early as next year. So in other words buy now on Kershaw and sell on Haren. I would rather be one year early than one year late in both keeping and dropping pitchers.

Kershaw might be a top 10 pitcher next year. He might not be.

Haren is a top 5 pitcher Right Now. We're playing fantasy baseball this year, right?

You don't toss back a top 5 pitcher because the other guy might be top 10. I don't buy the past 30 point, either. First, pitchers don't follow the general hitter aging curve of peak at 28 and then decline. Second, elite players generally stay such through most of their 30s. Also, Kershaw is actually a 2 category issue: walks (WHIP) and going deep into games (Wins).

I'm sympathetic for playing for the future, but it's gone a bit overboard in some cases. Whether you're a year early or a year late, you're still wrong, and Kershaw has more issues to work out.

Well I am not one to usually argue. We won't know who is right until the season is over so we can argue all we want but in the end it is still an opinion. A couple points and then you can respond all you want.

1. Kershaw's issue isn't walks like you said but it is only one problem. He was wild. His pitches per batter was well above average (4.32) which caused him to a. walk to many batters and b. not last very long in a game. So if he fixes his wildness, which is very likely as this was his first full season, then he should be able to go over 7 innings a game.

2. Pitchers don't age well. Take a look at pretty much any top 20 SP ranking and you will find less than a quarter of those guys are above the age of 30. And at least half of that 20 wasn't ranking in the top 20 3 years ago. There is a reason most fantasy managers will take the hitter over a SP. Haren might have a decent year this year but there is going to be a point where he doesn't and it should be soon. Where as Kershaw who is not that far behind Haren in most rankings, is only going to get better. So this isn't like I am endorsing a bottom of the draft SP over Haren.

3. Lastly, I am sure that I am in the minority here. I seem to be there a lot. Sometimes you have to take risks. Of course smart risks but risks nonetheless. Taking a young SP over an older SP could pay off dividends in the long run that could result in a championship.

[HOOTIE]

Haren is a lock. He's actually trending upward. His K/9 has increased 4 straight years. His command 3 straight. He's only 29. Pitcher peak around 29-30.