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An interesting draft theory

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An interesting draft theory

Postby drob681 » Sun Feb 14, 2010 2:37 pm

I'll be playing in a league that uses CI and UTIL spots in addition to all the typical lineup spots this year. We have already passed out drafting positions, and I was lucky enough to have gotten the 12th slot. I have been scheming of ways to try to be different with how I play the draft out and am wondering the cafe's expert opinion on something I've come up with.

3B this year is rediculously hollow. After the first 8 or 9 it's a total crapshoot. (And really...even the guys ranked 7-9 aren't that great...) I've also noticed that there will be a pretty good chance I can take David Wright and Evan Longoria at picks #12, and #13. Furthermore...I'll have a really good chance at getting 2 of 3 out of the Zimmerman, Youkilis, and Sandoval grouping that sits right around ADP 36...or right when I would get my next back-to-back selections.

Would I be crazy to try and target all the top 3B with my first 4 picks? Wright could fill the 3B spot, Longoria the CI, Youkilis or Sandoval could go to 1B, and then Zimmerman at UTIL? Would this create an advantage for my team (along with teams that got A-rod and some of the other guys before the talent falls off the cliff)?

Are there any problems with this strategy that I'm not seeing? I look forward to hearing the insights...
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sun Feb 14, 2010 2:40 pm

My immediate reaction to your question is that if you do take Wright and Longoria at 12 & 13, you may see the other top 3B's come off the board rather quickly, especially in a league where you have CI as a position.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby Seatownfavorite » Sun Feb 14, 2010 3:11 pm

In the mocks I've done so far Longoria is going <10 and Zimmerman and Pablo are going <30 so I think the chances of this happening are pretty slim although I don't think it's that bad a move since you can play them everyday.

ETA: Youks should be there though at the 3-4 turn.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby pjalst » Sun Feb 14, 2010 3:15 pm

I thought your strategy of drafting all the top 3B's would be to trade them later to fill other positions. But I can't see why you would keep them all(if you in fact get them). Other than A-rod and DAvid Wright, who may be gome by the time you position comes up, your SB CAT will take a significant hit unless you draft Figgins.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby Seatownfavorite » Sun Feb 14, 2010 3:30 pm

pjalst wrote:I thought your strategy of drafting all the top 3B's would be to trade them later to fill other positions. But I can't see why you would keep them all(if you in fact get them). Other than A-rod and DAvid Wright, who may be gome by the time you position comes up, your SB CAT will take a significant hit unless you draft Figgins.


I agree that would be the long term idea but you don't pawn one off right after the draft unless an owner panics right away. Wait a month or two until teams realize that Ramirez is down for 3 months or Ian Stewart is still hitting .230, until then you can plug these guys in your lineup.

Now that I am thinking about it I just don't know that this is a winning strategy. Even if you have a desperate owner, what are the chances that he is going to have the exact pieces that you need because you drafted so imbalanced? Not very good. This is just gimmicky and I don't think it will work. Draft the BPA that fits your team needs.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Feb 14, 2010 4:03 pm

Seatownfavorite wrote:In the mocks I've done so far Longoria is going <10 and Zimmerman and Pablo are going <30 so I think the chances of this happening are pretty slim although I don't think it's that bad a move since you can play them everyday.


Well let's look at hard data. According to the cafe mocks and drafts, I have:

Longoria's ADP is 10.83 (sd = 2.99). There is a 17% chance he will be there for you at 12.
Zimmerman's ADP is 26.6 (sd = 2.70). There is a <1% chance he will be there for you at 36
Youkilis's ADP is 35.6 (sd = 3.91). There is a 41% chance he will be there for you at 36.
Sandoval's ADP is 36.6 (sd = 5.18). There is a 60% chance he will be there for you at 36.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby drob681 » Sun Feb 14, 2010 4:54 pm

Now that I am thinking about it I just don't know that this is a winning strategy. Even if you have a desperate owner, what are the chances that he is going to have the exact pieces that you need because you drafted so imbalanced? Not very good. This is just gimmicky and I don't think it will work. Draft the BPA that fits your team needs.[/quote]

Remember, I'm just talking about the first 4 picks here. I would have plenty of chances to correct any inadequacies created by the first 4 picks. Speed could be had later, and noone is going to argue that I MUST draft a SP in the first 4 rounds. All the guys in consideration are solid contributors in Avg, HR, RBI, and R so It's not like I'm throwing away a pick. Plus in the league settings they could all start easily. I don't even think I would want or have to trade any of them.

I didn't realize longoria was going so high. I've done a bunch of mocks over at MDC where he's fallen into the 14-16 range, but I've also seen him selected as high as 9.

I appreciate the ideas (and would like to hear more...as I'm not yet convinced either direction) mentioned here, but obviously if longoria goes, or wright for that matter, than the plan would need to be scrapped and something a little more conventional would have to take over.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 14, 2010 5:46 pm

I wouldn't be excited at all to get pick 12 it is one of the worst few spots to draft in for a 12 team league. Having said that I don't believe you can control the draft in any way at the ends because it is so long before your next pick that any player that you 'force' to get drafted would have been gone anyway. The only reason to use this strat is to trade the 3B later and there is no sure way to know you'll get value for them, I'd probably just stick with draft for value.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Mon Feb 15, 2010 7:30 am

drob681 wrote:I didn't realize longoria was going so high. I've done a bunch of mocks over at MDC where he's fallen into the 14-16 range, but I've also seen him selected as high as 9.


FWIW Longoria went
10
7
11 (I took him, but it was the weakest mock or real draft I'v ever done)
10
10
in the 5 Yahoo mocks I've done.
I know it's a small sample size, but your chances of getting Longoria at 12 is probably none.
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Re: An interesting draft theory

Postby kab21 » Mon Feb 15, 2010 7:38 am

I think you'll be sabotaging your team more than creating positional scarcity by hoarding 4 3Bman. At the end of 4 rds I would not be thrilled to have very few SB's (except Wright's) and not have any up the middle players or OF'ers. Plus the likelihood of passing on better 1Bman than the 3Bman that you picked to fill CI/1B/UT slots.
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