So, how does everyone think he stacks up against the other first-rounders for 2010? I've seen him considered anywhere from 5th to about 12th pick overall.
It looks like he's gone into rehab to try and take care of the drinking problems, although word is that he's not the most well-conditioned athlete. It's almost mind-boggling to think of what this guy could do with some focus and conditioning, because even with the weight/booze issues, his three-year-average is 91-35-116-3-.312 and he's played in 157 games or more for six consecutive seasons (how many active first-rounders can you say that about?).
Even though he's been pretty consistent with his numbers, 2010 seems to be more of an unknown situation with him due to the above circumstances and the following pro and con:
PRO: He's coming into his age 27 season this year and he's already put six big-time seasons behind him. To think of what he's already done combined with the notion that he may not even have peaked yet is pretty intriguing.
CON: This line-up looks like it's going to be mediocre at best. If they add Johnny Damon that will help out, but what do Magglio and Carlos Guillen really have left in the tank? And if they get injured or underperform, you're pinning your hopes on the likes of Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore, Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn, Clete Thomas, etc. Last year, Miguel had a slightly better situation than this and he didn't get 100 runs and barely made it over 100 RBI. I know that a player can do well sometimes even with a weak supporting cast, but I'd like to see a statistical study on that, because more often than not it seems like "as goes the team, so goes the player" (to steal a line from Lenny Melnick).
Anyways, what do you all think? What kind of risk/reward do we get with M-Cab this year? Maybe I'm overthinking this and he's probably going to get 95-35-110-2-.310 no matter what happens. So if he does that, where do you put him when compared with the other first-rounders?
Before I really give you my opinion let me digress with a story first. Last year I had 6th spot in draft for my money league --figured it would come down to either M-Cab or Wright. It did and I took M-Cab over Wright because reading stories about citi-field dimensions scared me. Make a long story short I get to finals of my league. Going into last weeken of the second week looks like IIm going to make it (i dont have tiebreaker so must win 6-4). Cabrera precedes to go on binge and go 0-13 for the weekend and Im now behind BA .0002. (Still thought I would make it because A-rod blasts 3-homers either Sat or Sunday in early game but Fielder blasts 3 in later game to tie me in HRs) So it looks like im cooked at 5-5. But wait league rules count "reg season " playoffs. I had M-cab and Polanco opponent had no one. Needless to say M-Cab hits HR and I win thousand bucks --ahh the joy of h2h.
As far as M-Cab this year I see him performing better personally but as you point out surrounding team will be worse so r/rbi will be lucky to stay the same. Its a must that they sign Damon although that about ruins Rayburns chances of getting reg ABs. If they sign Damon I can see M-Cab equalling last years stats with few more HRs. I would take him in the 8th or 9th pick .
Granderson and Polanco combined for an OBP somewhere in the neighborhood of .330 last year. Damon (I'm assuming this gets done) and Sizemore (he can draw walks) should do better than that. Ordonez hit .375 after the break last year, highest in the majors. He might not hit 25 homers anymore, but he'll set the plate for Cab. I think he has a better year than he did last year.
Re. Raburn, I think he might still get a shot because Guillen isn't exactly a pillar of health and even if he is healthy, I still think they're going to try and get Raburn some regular AB's. Hope so, anyways.
The OF is going to be a carousel all year between Maggs, Jackson, Damon, Raburn, Guillen and Thomas. Guillen will probably be DHed as much as possible with Raburn spelling the corners and Jackson and Thomas going back and forth in CF.
My shallow thoughts: Good hitters can survive bad lineup support somehow. Pujols did it. A-Gonz did it. 90 runs, 40 HR, 99 RBI, ,277 avg That was Adrian Gonzales last year, with zero lineup support and half of his games at Petco. M-Cab hits for a lot higher avg, than A-Gonz. M-Cab's support is better, especially if Damon signes, and Im certain he will. BTW Granderson's OBP was .327, and 30 of his hits were HRs, so that didnt help M-Cab either. So Im not worried.
the awesome sig by soty
"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
Does Miguel Cabrea deserve to be a top 10 pick? Even if hes below 100 in RBI and Runs (and if he is, I don't expect it to be much lower) doesn't the career .311 average, 33+ HR, and 157+ G's played for 6 years running make him a first rounder still?
I think the answer is yes, Mr. Voice Inside My Head. Other than a simple "gut instinct", I don't think there is much (if any) statistical reason to avoid M.Cab.