Need thoughts on this ( fantasy baseball unpredictability)

[J.C.Fighter]

How many times do we see players put up big numbers 1 season and then put up crap numbers the following season?
Example Troy Tulowitzki
Had a great 07 and then had a AWFUL 08
Guys like Hamilton, Quentin and Victor Martinez have pulled that crap aswell. Ok some might say that they could of been injured during their " low" year but c'mon even when healthy they still stunk..

It gets really frustrating and it makes projecting guys almost impossible. There has to be some strategy to lower the chance of drafting a guy that might bust big on them. I know there isn't really a strategy but i know guys look at something the player is doing in the off season or spring training that indicates to them that player is going to have a low year.

[bigh0rt]

Injuries are injuries, and they affect performance. On top of the missed time, these guys frequently play less than 100% before finally heading to the DL, and come back not 100%, as well as having to actually ease back into the swing of things, hitting 95 MPH fastballs and such and such. There are players who have down years after monster years (See: Adrian Beltre, 2005), but there's certainly no correlation between any off-season reports or spring training performance that I've ever seen even written about seriously.

[J.C.Fighter]

Injuries are injuries, and they affect performance. On top of the missed time, these guys frequently play less than 100% before finally heading to the DL, and come back not 100%, as well as having to actually ease back into the swing of things, hitting 95 MPH fastballs and such and such. There are players who have down years after monster years (See: Adrian Beltre, 2005), but there's certainly no correlation between any off-season reports or spring training performance that I've ever seen even written about seriously.

Hmm yeah i know but am I the only one that thinks that guys like Matt Kemp and Adam Lind are going to pull a tulowitzki? Kemp more so than Lind . Kemp looks like he's been way too hollywood in the off season.
And then there's the contract year players who sign their huge contract and then suck the following season.
Example Cano, Beltre, Oliver Perez(he's always sucked though). Of course there are players that actually maintain their high level of play after signing the contract but there's guys you know are going to suck after signing theirs.

[hybrid]

Everyone you listed had injury-prone years and that's why they had down years. One thing you can do is to well, avoid injury prone guys. Both Hamilton and Quentin were none injury risks yet people still drafted them way to early. If you want a strategy to be safer while drafting, just go after guys with longer track records. Also don't buy into players who have career years, you're bound to not get good enough value while drafting them.