Question about Keeper League strategy (WHIR leave a link)

[RenT]

Ok, so this is my 3rd year playing fantasy baseball and will be my 2nd year in a league that has become my favorite. This league has 14 teams and is a keeper league. The amount of keepers depends on how you finished last year. I was upper-middle of the pack so I was allowed to keep 8 plus a rookie. The scoring is 5x5 roto.

So my question is this: Since the league is so big, does that put that much more value on positions that seem pretty thin (3B, SS, 2B?)? I just got the list of players who were kept and who are available along with our draft positions (I have the FIRST pick... so this could be a pretty big decision). A ton of players are being kept, but at a first glance here are the players who caught my eye:

2B Aaron Hill, 3B Gordan Beckham(soon to be 2B), SS Alexei Ramirez, OF Jay Bruce, OF Andre Ethier, P Chad Billingsley, P John Lackey, P AJ Burnett, P David Price.

Generally Ethier would be the most highly regarded player of the bunch right? But, since the league is so big, does my decision come down to one of Hill, Beckham or Ramirez? Being a keeper league, I'm kind of salivating over Beckham right now after reading all the hype about him. Here is what we start (along with what players I have kept):

C Victor Martinez
C
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS
MI
CI
OF Matt Holliday
OF Carlos Gonzalez
OF
OF
OF
UTIL
P Josh Beckett
P Max Scherzer
P Rick Porcello
P
P
P
P
P
P
Jason Heyward is my rookie keeper and will probably start the year on my bench.

Thanks in advance for any help you have to offer and please leave me a link to yours!

[higgsboson]

I would generally go with the best player, even in a keeper, given the players you mentioned. I'm sure you can fill your 2B SS with decent players in the next rounds, and if not you always can trade ethier to a team needing to upgrade OF.

viewtopic.php?t=400343

[Konfusious]

very interesting league. I would go with Beckham cause he will fill three slots for you on your team, atleast for this year at 2B, MI, CI. Ethier is tempting but Beckham is a monster to be (which hurt for me to trade him on the post, you wrote on but sometimes bigger offers are made). I would be tempted to go for a SP cause it seems like it might be an area you want to focus unless you're putting your eggs in the basket of Scherzer (which with his past injuries is a lil worrisome).

Good luck with your season and I accepted the offer, thanks for the advice.

[fast dogs]

Think I'd take Ethier here. 2nd base has a ton of good options, you'll be able to get someone with speed there which you'll end up needing. In a league that starts 70 OF'ers, the bottom guys there aren't all that special either.

[kidsilk]

I would keep Ethier too. Beckham is a close second but Ethier is the best overall player and that's what you want to keep, the best players that you have.

thanks for your help on my mine, he turned down the Rollins counter

[Cypher74]

Agreed, I wouldn't jump on the 2b here. Ethier is your guy, though depending on how deep pitching gets, Lackey could be considered as well...

Help?

viewtopic.php?t=400397

[Grounded Polo]

I'd go with Aaron Hill, he still has 25 HR power out of second base, taking him is not reaching for position scarcity at all.

[Montana168]

thanks for the help with mine.

hm that is a real tough decision. i do agree that position scarcity in deeper leagues becomes more of an issue. with that being said any of hill, ethier, bills, or beckham can justify that pick. since you have 3 quality OF, i think that eliminates ethier. you have 3 decent SP, although bills would be your #2 or possibly #1. but you need a 2b. i think it comes down to hill or beckham. i really dont think hill will repeat his year, but im not justifying that on anything other than guy, so you can take that with a grain of salt. but i do like beckham to become a 5 cat player this yr or next yr. 90/25/80/15/.280 could be a reasonable projection with room to get much more. many have compared him to utley. i'd gamble on beckham over some of the more provens there.

[Johnny Tuttle]

It's always a combination of best player & positional scarcity.

Here, Ethier's ADP is 67; Hill is 48; Beckham is 94. (Mock draft central)

At couchmanagers.com, it's 40 for Ethier; 32 for Hill; 78.3 for Beckham.

Hmmm. How much does the keeper aspect change this up? I'm thinking a lot. Despite the ADP, I'm voting Beckham.

Sorry if this is a seemingly contradictory post; I wanted to try to present some numbers to back stuff up, but I can't see punting on Beck's trade value, upside, and chance to become the top 2B in the game. With Heyward coming, you're fine enough in the OF to wait a round.