Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

[StlSluggers]

The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1. Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible. When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.

1 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS
3 Carlos Santana, C, CLE
4 Buster Posey, C, SFO
5 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA
6 Desmond Jennings, OF, TAM
7 Martin Perez, LHP, TEX
8 Dustin Ackley, CF, SEA
9 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
10 Jesus Montero, C, NYY
11 Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
12 Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
13 Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX
14 Domonic Brown, RF, PHI
15 Wade Davis, RHP, TAM
16 Aroldis Chapman, LHP, CIN
17 Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM
18 Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS
19 Aaron Hicks, RHP, MIN
20 Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR
21 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA
22 Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL
23 Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM
24 Michael Taylor, OF, OAK
25 Zach Britton, LHP, BAL
26 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE
27 Jaff Decker, OF, SDG
28 Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SFO
29 Tim Beckham, SS, TAM
30 Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC
31 Derek Norris, C, WAS
32 Ryan Westmoreland, OF, BOS
33 Chris Carter, 1B, OAK
34 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KAN
35 Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT
36 Christian Friedrich, LHP, COL
37 Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI
38 Shelby Miller, RHP, STL
39 Dee Gordon, SS, LAD
40 Kyle Drabek, RHP, TOR
41 Wilmer Flores, 3B, NYM
42 Wilson Ramos, C, MIN
43 Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, ATL
44 Carlos Triunfel, 2B, SEA
45 Casey Crosby, LHP, DET
46 Simon Castro, RHP, SDG
47 Brett Lawrie, 2B, MIL
48 Jhoulys Chacin, LHP, COL
49 Mike Trout, OF, LAA
50 Jay Jackson, RHP, CHC
51 Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE
52 Hank Conger, C, LAA
53 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, BOS
54 Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL
55 Zach Stewart, RHP, TOR
56 Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS
57 Jose Tabata, OF, PIT
58 Tyler Flowers, C, CHW
59 Daryl Jones, OF, STL
60 Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU
61 Josh Bell, 3B, BAL
62 Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA
63 Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL
64 Ike Davis, 1B, NYM
65 Jason Castro, C, HOU
66 Todd Frazier, 2B, CIN
67 Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
68 Matt Sweeney, 3B, TAM
69 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KAN
70 Austin Jackson, OF, DET
71 Michael Brantley, OF, CLE
72 Mike Leake, RHP, CIN
73 Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
74 Michael Saunders, OF, SEA
75 Mike Montgomery, LHP, KAN
76 Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN
77 Trevor Reckling, LHP, LAA
78 Tanner Scheppers, RHP, TEX
79 Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHC
80 Jacob Turner, RHP, DET
81 Matt Moore, LHP, TAM
82 Tony Sanchez, C, PIT
83 Chris Withrow, RHP, LAD
84 Zack Wheeler, RHP, SFO
85 Randall Delgado, RHP, ATL
86 Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS
87 Aaron Crow, RHP, KAN
88 Chris Heisey, OF, CIN
89 Kyle Gibson, RHP, MIN
90 Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL
91 Jose Iglesias, SS, BOS
92 Drew Storen, RHP, WAS
93 Grant Green, SS, OAK
94 Jiovanni Mier, SS, HOU
95 Jared Mitchell, OF, CHW
96 Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY
97 Miguel Sano, SS, MIN
98 Junichi Tazawa, RHP, BOS
99 Travis d'Arnaud, C, TOR
100 Nick Hagadone, LHP, CLE

[Steve-o]

This has been up for a few days now, but I'll throw a couple of comments out there.

Lower than I have them: Bumgarner (28), Pedro Alvarez (35), Drabek (40), Yonder Alonso (76), Michael Montgomery (75), Turner (80), Dan Hudson (MIA), Storen (92).

Higher than I have them: Ackley (8), Martin Perez (7), Starlin Castro (12), L. Chisenhall (26), Vitters (30), Jaff Decker (27), Jarrod Parker (37), Hosmer (34!), D. Jones (59), A. Rizzo (53), C. Triunfel (44), Wilson Ramos (42).

Law has always been high on Vitters (2008 #17, 2009 #14 - about 20 spots higher than average), D. Jones (2009 #50 - about 20-30 spots higher), and Triunfel (2008 #18, 2009 #22 - about 30 spots higher), so at least he is being consistent. Consistently wrong, in my opinion, but at least consistent.

[05worldserieschamps]

Too Low: Tim Beckham, Pedro alvarez, Tyler Flowers, Fernando Martinez, Alonso, Crow

Too High: Stanton, Ackley (seriously?), Chisenhall, Conger, Mike Leake

[StlSluggers]

I was surprised by Ackley at #8 AND at CF, too.
Most people I've seen who have ranked him highly have done so on the idea that he will be playing 2B.

[TheNatinals]

One of the Baseball America analysts (I think it was Manual) said on the prospect handbook podcast that he wouldn't be surprised if Ackley is the number 1 prospect in baseball on the 2011 list. Just sayin'...

[kab21]

I've seen several comments from different sites that Ackley has one of the best pure left handed swings in all of the minors (possibly baseball). Combine that with an excellent eye at the plate and you're looking at a super valuable player. The only problem is that in fantasy he won't rack up big HR or SB numbers (although BA put him at 60 speed so it's possible). #8 is an aggresive ranking but not ridiculous.

Personally I think Tim Beckham is too high (not too low). He's disappointed tools wise and his defense has been called into question by some.

And I love the FMart ranking. finally someone that agrees. Actually I think BA might agree also since they put him below Flores IIRC.