Nate McLouth - Running in '10

[AussieDodger]

Just thought I'd put this out there.........

Atlanta's SB Rank In MLB:

2009: 29th
2008: 28th
2007: 26th
2006: 29th
2005: 11th with 92, but Furcal had half of them with 46.

McLouth running less/same/more this year? Place your vote

[AussieDodger]

BUMP - any thoughts for more or less?

[DaSh 1s]

[Neato Torpedo]

Just thought I'd put this out there.........

Atlanta's SB Rank In MLB:

2009: 29th
2008: 28th
2007: 26th
2006: 29th
2005: 11th with 92, but Furcal had half of them with 46.

McLouth running less/same/more this year? Place your vote

He stole 12 in 339 AB with the Braves in '09, which projects out to 22-ish for the season, which is right on pace with '07 and '08.

And I've always believed this particular method of predicting SB to be very misleading and inaccurate. I mean, how many full-time speedsters have the Braves had since Furcal left? Renteria? Stopped swiping bags two years before he arrived at Atlanta. Willie Harris, Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson? Rightfully not starting full-time. Team steals is 95% related to how often speedsters reach base and 5% variation in dugout strategy.

Also, if you're looking for a case study, Matt Diaz swiped 12 in 371 AB in '09. That was a better pace than he had at any point in his 11-year professional career except at AA Orlando in 2002 and just slightly behind his 75 game minors stint in 2005.

[AussieDodger]

Team steals is 95% related to how often speedsters reach base and 5% variation in dugout strategy.

It's also possible they could have adopted something similar to the "NO RUNNING" strategy that Oakland used to have.

Gregor Blanco is reasonably rapid, and from 430 at bats and a .366 OBP in 2008 he only received 18 chances.

Kelly Johnson has decent speed too (check his triples), and he didn't get that many SB chances while with the Braves.

[Neato Torpedo]

Pff, K-Jo stole 25 bases in A ball in 2001 when he was 19 years old and thats clearly an outlier. Since then it's been about 15 per 631 PA in the minors and 11 in the majors in that same average sample (using B-R's quick per 162 games tool).

[AussieDodger]

Pff, K-Jo stole 25 bases in A ball in 2001 when he was 19 years old and thats clearly an outlier. Since then it's been about 15 per 631 PA in the minors and 11 in the majors in that same average sample (using B-R's quick per 162 games tool).

He got caught a lot in '02 and '04, obviously this made an impression on the front office.

[Neato Torpedo]

Right, so he's not a competent baserunner. Why should he be running then?

[kaiser]

Aussie is on the money here. Bobby Cox just doesn't like to green light his players. He is one of the most "play-it-safe" managers in MLB.

Is Cox a great manager because he plays it safe, or in spite of that?

[Nerfherders]

Nate McLouth will get his 20 SB. I don't really see a reason why he wouldn't.... unless the Braves sign Damon, then McLouth drops down into the 6th or 7th spot in the batting order and may not steal as much.