Nate McLouth - Running in '10 - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

The Braves will have McLouth steal..........

Poll ended at Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:53 pm

Less then usual
11
35%
Same level as he always has
19
61%
More, more, MOAR!
1
3%
 
Total votes : 31

Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:53 pm

Just thought I'd put this out there.........

Atlanta's SB Rank In MLB:

2009: 29th
2008: 28th
2007: 26th
2006: 29th
2005: 11th with 92, but Furcal had half of them with 46.

McLouth running less/same/more this year? Place your vote :-?
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:26 am

BUMP - any thoughts for more or less? :-?
Last edited by AussieDodger on Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby DaSh 1s » Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:39 am

Image
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
DaSh 1s
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1893
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 1 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:14 am

AussieDodger wrote:Just thought I'd put this out there.........

Atlanta's SB Rank In MLB:

2009: 29th
2008: 28th
2007: 26th
2006: 29th
2005: 11th with 92, but Furcal had half of them with 46.

McLouth running less/same/more this year? Place your vote :-?

He stole 12 in 339 AB with the Braves in '09, which projects out to 22-ish for the season, which is right on pace with '07 and '08.

And I've always believed this particular method of predicting SB to be very misleading and inaccurate. I mean, how many full-time speedsters have the Braves had since Furcal left? Renteria? Stopped swiping bags two years before he arrived at Atlanta. Willie Harris, Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson? Rightfully not starting full-time. Team steals is 95% related to how often speedsters reach base and 5% variation in dugout strategy.

Also, if you're looking for a case study, Matt Diaz swiped 12 in 371 AB in '09. That was a better pace than he had at any point in his 11-year professional career except at AA Orlando in 2002 and just slightly behind his 75 game minors stint in 2005.
Image

Rocinante2: you know
Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team
ofanrex: go on
Rocinante2: i'm done
Rocinante2: lmao

Play Brushback Baseball! (we need more people)
Neato Torpedo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerWeb Supporter
Posts: 8618
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: we don't burn gasoline, we burn our dreams

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:38 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:Team steals is 95% related to how often speedsters reach base and 5% variation in dugout strategy.


It's also possible they could have adopted something similar to the "NO RUNNING" strategy that Oakland used to have. :-?

Gregor Blanco is reasonably rapid, and from 430 at bats and a .366 OBP in 2008 he only received 18 chances.

Kelly Johnson has decent speed too (check his triples), and he didn't get that many SB chances while with the Braves.
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:47 am

Pff, K-Jo stole 25 bases in A ball in 2001 when he was 19 years old and thats clearly an outlier. Since then it's been about 15 per 631 PA in the minors and 11 in the majors in that same average sample (using B-R's quick per 162 games tool).
Image

Rocinante2: you know
Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team
ofanrex: go on
Rocinante2: i'm done
Rocinante2: lmao

Play Brushback Baseball! (we need more people)
Neato Torpedo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerWeb Supporter
Posts: 8618
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: we don't burn gasoline, we burn our dreams

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:54 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:Pff, K-Jo stole 25 bases in A ball in 2001 when he was 19 years old and thats clearly an outlier. Since then it's been about 15 per 631 PA in the minors and 11 in the majors in that same average sample (using B-R's quick per 162 games tool).


He got caught a lot in '02 and '04, obviously this made an impression on the front office. :-?
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:58 am

Right, so he's not a competent baserunner. Why should he be running then? :-?
Image

Rocinante2: you know
Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team
ofanrex: go on
Rocinante2: i'm done
Rocinante2: lmao

Play Brushback Baseball! (we need more people)
Neato Torpedo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerWeb Supporter
Posts: 8618
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: we don't burn gasoline, we burn our dreams

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby kaiser » Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:07 am

Aussie is on the money here. Bobby Cox just doesn't like to green light his players. He is one of the most "play-it-safe" managers in MLB.

Is Cox a great manager because he plays it safe, or in spite of that?
Image
kaiser
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 5554
(Past Year: 306)
Joined: 8 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Genco Olive Oil Co.

Re: Nate McLouth - Running in '10

Postby Nerfherders » Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:16 pm

Nate McLouth will get his 20 SB. I don't really see a reason why he wouldn't.... unless the Braves sign Damon, then McLouth drops down into the 6th or 7th spot in the batting order and may not steal as much.
Nerfherders
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 669
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 25 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Oct. 24
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact