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The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

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The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby Fenway Punk » Sun Feb 07, 2010 3:36 pm

Hey. Of course this is all just opinion so feel free to let me know yours on mine, as filthy as you like. *ahem*

Here's what I've come up with after WAAAAAY too many mocks WAAAAAY too early in the year.

Go power EARLY and OFTEN- in rounds 1-4 or even rounds 1-6. Get greedy with it. Just when you think you have enough power, DRAFT MORE POWER. Try to focus on obtaining power in the IF positions. Ignore the OF speed specialists early (Ellsbury, Crawford, Victorino)... there are plenty to be had much later at a much more attractive price ( Nyjer Morgan, Julio Borbon, Juan Pierre, Carlos Gomez, Rajai Davis). Take a slew of SPs in rounds 5-8, or 6-9, and focus on the one's with the high K/9. (Primary targets: Jon Lester, Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Clayton Kershaw)

DO NOT REACH FOR "ELITE" RP. While it may look nice and shiny to have your Broxton's, or Papelbon's, or Rivera's, these guys require a round 5-7 pick... which is a good 7 rounds too early for guys who aren't THAT much better than the guys who are available 7 rounds later. (Primary Target: Rafeal Soriano Rd 12)

WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE "C" POSITION?- Great question. You could spend an early pick on you're Mauer's, or V-Marts, or McCann's, but don't be that guy. There is much better power to be had in the rounds that these guys go. I would say target, in this order: Matt Weiters Rd 8-11, Miguel Montero Rd 11-13 , Geovany Soto Rd 13-15. Catcher is a black-hole of a position, so don't feel too bad if you get some scrub. If you drafted a ton of power in the early rounds, it won't make one bit of difference.

WHAT ABOUT SS/2B? THESE POSITIONS ARE THIN AND YOU HAVE TO ADDRESS "POSITION SCARCITY"- First of all, the position scarcity arguement has become so overblown that it has actually detered the fantasy community away from the most important thing in fantasy: THE BEST STATS POSSIBLE. So you have the number 1 pick in your draft and you take Hanley Ramirez over Albert Pujols and then feel wicked smart because "SS is such a thin position and you have the BEST guy." Meanwhile, the guy with the number 2 pick is laughing all the way to the bank because your stupid ass just passed on the BEST FANTASY PLAYER IN THE GAME. It's all about the stats people, not who has the best players at "thin" positions. If you take my advice on drafting as much power as you can early, it won't make a shred of difference who you have at the "thin" positions, because it all evens out in the end. (Later round targets: Elvis Andrus, Alcides Escobar, Ian Stewart, Howie Kendrick. My favorite earlier round target: Robinson Cano. If anyone paid attention last year, you should know by now that you want you some left handed Yanks.)

WHAT ABOUT THIRD BASE? ITS THE THINNEST THAT IT HAS EVER BEEN... DO YOU REALLY EXPECT ME TO NOT WORRY ABOUT IT AND BE FORCED TO START CHIPPER JONES OR CASEY BLAKE? No, I don't. But if you take my advice on drafting power early, you won't have to worry about it because you SHOULD have Arod, or Longo, or Reynolds, or Youk, or Zimmerman, or ARam. Basically after the first four rounds you should come away with two 1B, a 3B, and a position player of preference. You roster should have what I call the TRI-POD of POWER (*snicker*) with elite power guys at 1B, then 3b, then UTIL/DH. If you have say, Chase Utley RD 1, Adrian Gonzalez RD 2, and Justin Morneua RD 3, feel free to grab Chone Figgins somewhere between rounds 7-8, if you miss out on the man they call YOOOOOUUUUUUUUUK,

SO WHAT'S GOING ON WITH MY OF? Excellent question. Again, if you focused on power IF guys early, then you can now fill your OF with the later round speed specialists listed earlier. If you are more comfortable with grabbing at least one OF guy before round 10, I don't blame you, but trust me you can get away with not drafting an OF til late this year. One of my favorite MUCH later OF targets: Kyle Blanks. I'm not saying draft him as a starter, but hang on to this dude. You ever seen someone 6'6'' 275 lbs hit an inside the park homer? Nah, me neither.

So there you have it. Lets sum up the strategy: Go power early and often, directed at IF positions, and go speed late, directed at the OF positions. Don't pass on a 30/100 guy in favor of a 20/20 middle infielder, then chirp about "position scarcity." It's retarded. Rake a good set of SPs following rounds 4 or 5, it's up to you. Target guys like Scott Baker, Brett Anderson, Wade Davis in the later rounds to round out your SP. DO NOT REACH ON 'ELITE' RPs. Tell all your friends that some punk from Fenway helped turn you from a Fantasy Shmoo into a Fantasy Guru. ;-D
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby MTUCache » Sun Feb 07, 2010 3:58 pm

No real arguments here, although you're not exactly bringing up anything new.

Same as just about every other draft strategy... start with drafting the best talent available (regardless of position) and then avoid reaching to fill those holes later or ending up at the back end of a run.

Can't say I'm really sold on any strategy in baseball, other than the knowledge that 3 pitchers (SP/RP) taken before the 15th round is usually enough to build your staff around for the entire year as long as you're keeping your ear to the ground and paying attention to match-ups. If I've got three pitchers I'm happy with by that point, I'll be fine letting all the middle-tier pitchers go and building the rest of my staff with WW-fodder.

One big thing that took me a couple seasons to put together properly was a target number for how many of each stat you're looking for (in roto leagues anyway). Generally I'll figure out how many of each stat it takes me to get into the top three in every category. As I draft guys I subtract their projected stats from those targets and as I fill out my starting spots, which lets me know whether I've got enough RBI/HR and can look for an R/SB guy, or if I need to keep looking at power. Those first couple years I would blow everybody away in a couple stats and end up in the middle of the pack on others. Since I started looking at my drafts like that I've had better success. Obviously this never survives the first DL-stint of the season, but it generally gets me a balanced enough squad that I can put together trades or focus on certain types of FA to keep my team in the top 3 of each category.
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby urbanbreez » Sun Feb 07, 2010 4:18 pm

That was an excellent post. Tons of info, the useful kind.
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby The Mighty Trow » Sun Feb 07, 2010 5:10 pm

Well thought out post, thanks for this. These are great guidelines for a winning draft. I especially agree with your thoughts on catchers, taking power early (infield taking slight precedence over outfield), and not paying primo dollar for the best starters and relievers.
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby theplayer11 » Sun Feb 07, 2010 7:25 pm

I agree with drafting hitters early and often, but not necessarily POWER as you emphasized. Power gives you HR and RBI, that's 2 out of 5 categories. I'm taking the all around guys after the first few rounds.
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby Bloody Sox » Sun Feb 07, 2010 7:37 pm

Very enjoyable post. I don't agree with all of it (I can't say that I think that position scarcity is retarded, and I HATE Cano as a guy to target) but I like your thought process.

I definitely think that 3B is a position to target early - there are 9-10 good options and then if falls off a cliff.

I'm torn on catchers... I've always been a "draft a catcher in the last couple of rounds" kind of guy, but I always end up leaving 25-30 games played on the table. There was something nice about owning McCann last year, though I missed out on a three-peat, so I can't sat it was a success. I may split the difference and go for a guy like Montero this year.

I hate the SS position this year across the board (based on where you'd have to draft guys). I'm still trying to figure out a good strategy there. I may break with my normal approach and target one specific guy and make sure I get him even if I have to grab him early.

I couldn't agree more with closers... I usually will try to get one safe guy in the 7th but then wait until the 12th round and beyond to get a couple of more. I also love the middle reliever game. Grab 2-3 closers-in-waiting with great ratios after round 14 and you'll set yourself up nicely.
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby smoovethug » Sun Feb 07, 2010 8:05 pm

You forgot one big key.

Cole Hamels.

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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sun Feb 07, 2010 9:14 pm

Good post. This is exactly how I drafted last year, after learning from mistakes in previous years.

I will add one amendment:

DO NOT NEGLECT BATTING AVERAGE. As you do all you said above, pay super duper attention to batting average. Don't *just* go for the 40HR guy, grab the 30HR .310AVG guy instead.
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby jonboy418 » Sun Feb 07, 2010 11:27 pm

I agree with a lot of your post. Especially how you handle pitchers and closers in particular. I like Soriano this year, especially on a potent Rays team.
Although I do disagree with one of your comments and it's regarding positional scarcity when it comes to Hanley. Although we are splitting hairs between #1 and #2, I would take Hanley 10/10 times and not look back and here's why:


Team #1
Pujols: .327 (186/568), 124 Runs, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB
Elvis Andrus (first guy you mentioned): .267 (145/480), 72 Runs, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 30 SB
combined: .316 AVG, 196 Runs, 53 HR, 175 HR, 46 SB

Team #2
Hanley: .342 (197/576), 101 Runs, 24 HR, 106 RBI, 27 SB
Kevin Youkilis (4th round value, per your instructions for CI): .305 (150/491), 99 Runs, 27HR, 94 RBI, 7 SB
combined: .325 AVG, 200 Runs, 51 HR, 200 RBI, 34 SB

At 1B and SS, I would win 3-2 over Pujols and the replacement SS. There is no doubt that Pujols is the best fantasy player, but the VORP at 1B vs. SS with Hanley is large enough that you must take Hanley #1.
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Re: The winning strategy for 2010 Drafts

Postby jcook3127 » Sun Feb 07, 2010 11:30 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:Good post. This is exactly how I drafted last year, after learning from mistakes in previous years.

I will add one amendment:

DO NOT NEGLECT BATTING AVERAGE. As you do all you said above, pay super duper attention to batting average. Don't *just* go for the 40HR guy, grab the 30HR .310AVG guy instead.


If you're playing ROTO, then yes

If you're playing H2H..absolutely not...in fact, make a conscious effort to ignore batting average and you'll have an awesome lineup that should win a majority of offensive cats and maybe sweep on a fluke average week

Way to volatile of a category from week to week to put too much weight on in H2H
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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