you can't measure a players power potential by the number of home runs they hit in the minor leagues, look at Pujols. Blanks has definite power potential, but I agree that hitting 30 homeruns in petco without a full time gig is looking kind of unlikely. Maybe next season.
The most attractive thing about Blanks is his current ADP, which has him going undrafted in some drafts. 30 HRs is a bit of a prayer, but with a full time gig (which he should have by the AS break) I don't see how this guy doesn't go YAAAAAAAAAAARD at least 20 times, and with at least 9 SBs to boot.
Anderson is a great pick to outperform his ADP, but to give him the "Wainwright award" implies that he'll be good for a bundle of wins, which I don't see on an Oakland team. I think 15 wins is probably the ceiling... but the K rate is what I'll be salivating over.
As far as Heyward goes, it's easy to see why so many are buying into the hype. Scouts are comparing him to a young Griffey Jr. for pete's sakes. Recently, we have been spoiled with the likes of Brauns or Longorias, guys who have a major impact right off the bat. You have to remember that this is FAR from the norm, because the majority of big leagures need a year or six before getting to full stride. And in regards to him breaking camp on the team... don't count on it. This is the team who traded Javy Vasquez and Rafael Soriano solely for the purpose of salary trimming, so they are not gonna let Heyward sniff the bigs until his arbitration clock ticks past 2011 (which should be early to mid june, possibly end of may).
I'm REALLY liking Nyjer Morgan as a guy who is available in the round 10 range but who can give you elite SB numbers. Not many people realize that while he raked and stole very well in Pittsburg, the kid WENT ABSOLUTELY NUTS when traded to the Nats... hitting .351 and swiping 24 bags in just 41 games (!) before a season ending injury.
And yes I'm aware Desmond received just over 80 AB's in the Majors last year... so not a perfect comp. That said, the team signed Adam Kennedy and already has Christian Guzman as well. Desmond could open the season in Triple-A, and I remember reading that he may get some time in the OF and serve as a utility player of sorts to get him some time in the Majors eventually, which would be kind of funny since Coghlan ended up shifted to the OF to get PT. Desmond's pop in the Majors was a bit of a mirage, but he should run some, and offers at least some pop, and like Coghlan, will likely need a high/lucky BABIP to post a .300+ AVG. Hence, that's why I ignored the 80+ AB's
MasterX1918 wrote:you can't measure a players power potential by the number of home runs they hit in the minor leagues, look at Pujols. Blanks has definite power potential, but I agree that hitting 30 homeruns in petco without a full time gig is looking kind of unlikely. Maybe next season.
Blanks has a full time gig, as a matter of fact hes the only Padre OF who will be guaranteed PT. The other 2 spots will be filled with a combo of Hairston, Venable and Gwynn JR.
Blanks hit 10hr in 148 AB's last year, project him out to just 500 AB's and while I know thats not always accurate its a good measure of his power
I happen to have Anderson, Blanks, Snider, LaPorta, and C Gonzalez on my keeper prospect roster, all ready to bust out. If I can get rid of some $$ on my active roster I am ready to go young!
MasterX1918 wrote:you can't measure a players power potential by the number of home runs they hit in the minor leagues, look at Pujols. Blanks has definite power potential, but I agree that hitting 30 homeruns in petco without a full time gig is looking kind of unlikely. Maybe next season.
Blanks has a full time gig, as a matter of fact hes the only Padre OF who will be guaranteed PT. The other 2 spots will be filled with a combo of Hairston, Venable and Gwynn JR.
Blanks hit 10hr in 148 AB's last year, project him out to just 500 AB's and while I know thats not always accurate its a good measure of his power
THATS 40 HRS!!!!!!!! Worst Way to ever project a player. Alot of players go crazy for one month and do nothing for 6 other months, Blanks had his month/month and a half.
Yeah I'm not really that excited. Stubbs hit like 8 in a 180 ab's in the pro's, but only hit 28 in 1500 minor league AB's. Do you expect him to hit 25 Next year? I dont.
Blanks might have a full time gig, but he's hit only 20 some HR's in the minors in a year. There's no way at the age of 23 he's going to hit more than 20 at PETCO. Please recognize the crappy park he plays in and the crappy line up around him. Projecting based off of such a small sample size is insane. Sure he could hit 30 next year, so could brian roberts, but the likely hood of it are SLIM TO NOT A CHANCE IN HELL.
MasterX1918 wrote:you can't measure a players power potential by the number of home runs they hit in the minor leagues, look at Pujols. Blanks has definite power potential, but I agree that hitting 30 homeruns in petco without a full time gig is looking kind of unlikely. Maybe next season.
Blanks has a full time gig, as a matter of fact hes the only Padre OF who will be guaranteed PT. The other 2 spots will be filled with a combo of Hairston, Venable and Gwynn JR.
Blanks hit 10hr in 148 AB's last year, project him out to just 500 AB's and while I know thats not always accurate its a good measure of his power
THATS 40 HRS!!!!!!!! Worst Way to ever project a player. Alot of players go crazy for one month and do nothing for 6 other months, Blanks had his month/month and a half.
Yeah I'm not really that excited. Stubbs hit like 8 in a 180 ab's in the pro's, but only hit 28 in 1500 minor league AB's. Do you expect him to hit 25 Next year? I dont.
Blanks might have a full time gig, but he's hit only 20 some HR's in the minors in a year. There's no way at the age of 23 he's going to hit more than 20 at PETCO. Please recognize the crappy park he plays in and the crappy line up around him. Projecting based off of such a small sample size is insane. Sure he could hit 30 next year, so could brian roberts, but the likely hood of it are SLIM TO NOT A CHANCE IN HELL.
As an unbiased arbitrator I rule: Both wrong. Yes PETCO is crap, and Blanks HR numbers aren't prodigious in the minors, but they are very good. Add in his age, and the levels he was playing at, and he's done nothing to illustrate that he doesn't have a future slugging 30+ HR's even in PETCO. That said, I don't necessarily expect it to come this season, in fact, I'd say his ceiling THIS year is about 30. As Masterx said, simply looking at a players minor league stats and declaring a player can't and won't reach statistical plateaus is foolish. Things such as age relative to level and projectable real life tools need to come into consideration. Also suggesting Brian Roberts could hit 30 HR's in an argument discussing Kyle Blanks HR output next year is ridiculous hyperbole that doesn't further your argument at all.
As far as extrapolating small sample sizes over a full season, that's a bad idea as well. Players have hot and cold months, and the season is long. Blanks is young, and has never played in more than 132 games at any level, so expecting him to maintain a peak performance over the course of a full Major League season is a recipe for disaster. The power output in his AB's in SD is nice, as it does illustrate that his power is following him up the ladder, that said, he does play in PETCO, and he likely will wear down some.
Kyle Blanks appears to be a source of useful power next year, with a reasonable projection of 20-25 HR's, and a ceiling, next year at least, probably around 30. One thing Blanks does have going in his favor is that 50.5% of the balls he put in play were the FB variety, thus he doesn't have to put up an astronomical HR/FB rate to slug 20-25 HR's. That said, FB that don't leave the ballpark are likely to be outs, and coupled with his high K-rate, he likely will post a low batting average unless he cuts back on K's and/or turns some FB's into LD's. Overall though, Blanks has some upside I wouldn't mind owning if the price is right come draft day.
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by MasterX1918 » Mon Feb 08, 2010 11:48 am 
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