I'm in a 12 team, 6x6 (OPS, holds and K/9 - 15 inn. min) keeper league with 5 keepers this year, but only 3 keepers next year. I'd have to let either Kendry Morales or BJ Upton go if I don't make a deal, so I'm trying to make the best 2 for 1 deal I can with one of the few teams without a good set of options. I am thinking of proposing this deal:
Get: Chase Utley
Give: Tim Lincecum and Brandon Phillips
If I made the deal, my keeper list would be Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Kendry Morales and BJ Upton. (As of now, my keepers are Ramirez, Holliday, Lincecum, Phillips and probably Morales.)
I'm drafting last in the first round, and I'm concerned about giving up my only ace. Especially in a K/9 league with such a low min where a good, High K, Low ERA/WHIP Lincecum start early in the week can secure me a victory in half the pitching categories alone! That being said, with only 3 keepers next year, I want to try and get as many slam dunk early round players as I can and the HanRam/Utley/Holliday trio seems pretty strong for a 12 team league.
I'm in a 12 team, 6x6 (OPS, holds and K/9 - 15 inn. min) keeper league with 5 keepers this year, but only 3 keepers next year. I'd have to let either Kendry Morales or BJ Upton go if I don't make a deal, so I'm trying to make the best 2 for 1 deal I can with one of the few teams without a good set of options. I am thinking of proposing this deal:
Get: Chase Utley
Give: Tim Lincecum and Brandon Phillips
If I made the deal, my keeper list would be Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Kendry Morales and BJ Upton. (As of now, my keepers are Ramirez, Holliday, Lincecum, Phillips and probably Morales.)
I'm drafting last in the first round, and I'm concerned about giving up my only ace. Especially in a K/9 league with such a low min where a good, High K, Low ERA/WHIP Lincecum start early in the week can secure me a victory in half the pitching categories alone! That being said, with only 3 keepers next year, I want to try and get as many slam dunk early round players as I can and the HanRam/Utley/Holliday trio seems pretty strong for a 12 team league.
Thoughts?
Leave a link. I'll be glad to help!
Thanks.
With OPS as a category, it makes Utley that more valueable. Look at the OPS for 2nd base and it's aweful. Meanwhile a good k/9 rate can be found in late rounds (i.e. Jorge De La Rosa). I would take Utley over Lincecum / Phillips.
I wouldn't do this deal. 60 people are being kept in your leauge, and I see Upton as a borderline keeper in that format. Meanwhile you're giving up the best pitcher in the game. If you weren't going to keep Phillips anyways I'd say go for it. Utley is a stud, but I'd rather have Lincecum/Phillips than Utley/Upton.
No way I do this. Lincecum is too valuable, especially in your league. He is the best pitcher in the game and make sure you get the other guy to overpay to get him if you really want to trade him. And yes keep Morales over Upton.
I understand some of the reasons why keeping Lincecum might be the best move, but I'm also trying to think about next year...where we can only keep 3 keepers. I think the trade will help me in that department in three ways:
1) I think the HanRam, Utley, and Holliday list has more value than the HanRam, Lincecum, and Holliday list.
2) In terms of a two year commitment, I think that there is a greater chance that Lincecum could sustain a major season-ending injury as opposed to Utley. Like they say on the 411, you can't win your league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose it! A devistation injury to Lincecum this year could kill his value for two years. Even if Utley sustains an injury this year, it is unlikely that it would keep him down for 2011.
3) If one of my three keepers has a major injury or declines for some reason, (Holliday to a bad ballpark, or something similar.) I think that BJ Upton has the highest upside to become a top 3 round talent over the next year over the likes of Phillips or Kendry Morales. If I don't make the deal, I won't have to opportunity to cash in on his upside since I won't be able to keep him.
I guess you can tell which side I'm leaning towards, but I'm open for hearing more strategic reasons for either decision. Thanks for your help and I will continue to help in return.
I would highly recommend NOT making that trade. Lincecum is arguably the most valuable player in fantasy baseball (I say arguably because I'm not of that opinion, but some are and they may be right) and Utley is aging and perhaps starting to decline (3 year decline in BA, SLG%, and CT %). Sure he's still the best 2B in the league, but with the hip problem (common in 2B) and the other declining trends I think there is some cause for concern regarding his keeper value.
Phillips isn't going to win you any leagues, but he's a solid power/speed option at 2B and he posted the strongest BB% and CT% of his career in 2009. He's only 28 years old and is a lock for 550+ ABs. Don't be surprised if he goes .290, 25/25, 100 in 2010.
If I was you the guy I'd be trying to sell-high on is Matt Holliday. The large contact he signed (and especially all the media attention) along with his hot finish to the 2009 season has him highly overvalued early this season. On avg at MDC he's being drafted 22nd overall and has gone as early as 13th overall! He's a solid piece, but not a cornerstone. Use that hype to turn him and Upton into a better keeper option at a scarcer position (Miguel Cabrera at best, but I'd take Ryan Zimmeran or Evan Longoria too).
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit.
i wouldn't do it just yet. lincecum is the best pitcher in the league and YOUNG!..utley came up late, he's deceptively nearing 30.
i would either try giving a lesser pitcher in the deal, like josh johnson caliber or waiting til after the all star break and trading someone who would've been a 5th keeper who you can't bring with you next season due to the new rules. at least that way, you don't sacrifice this year and improve your team next season.
If your 6th keeper was someone better than Upton/Morales, I would feel differently, but at this point I wouldn't feel terrible about throwing one (Upton) back. I think your group of 5 is stronger without making the trade.
I also understand your point about next year, but the reality is you have to work through this year first. You have a good enough core of keepers to win, obviously, so you should do all you can to make this year's team the strongest possible. It's not like Hanley/Lince/Holliday is a bad trio going into 2011 anyway.
I don't like this deal for you either, I can see where your coming from but I just don't see how it helps you. Lincecum (the 2nd best SP in the game behind Halladay - espcially now in the N.L.) I'm lucky enough to have both on one of my keeper teams
I like the dealing of Matt Holliday/Upton for Longoria or Zimmerman (Depending on your league Miggy won't be available at 3rd) but would still take him as my 1B, but you do have Morales.
That would leave your 5 as: HanRam, Lincecum, Phillips, Morales and Longoria/Zimmerman/???? who ever you deal for.
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by trumpeter » Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:33 pm 
