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Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby Matthias » Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:54 pm

As others have said, I think this is a criminal injustice to Cruz. Unless you think that he's going to get hurt, he's one of the elite power OFers. The SBs are just gravy.

I can't remember where I read it, maybe Shandler's Forecaster, but it was something to the effect that Cruz's 2009 was Werth's 2008. Yet noone seems to want to bite on Cruz but stick with Werth.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby DaSh 1s » Fri Feb 05, 2010 10:46 pm

His first good season at the age of 28 merits the title, one of the "elite power OFers"?

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B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby AquaMan2342 » Fri Feb 05, 2010 10:52 pm

Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games?? :-L
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby DaSh 1s » Fri Feb 05, 2010 10:58 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games?? :-L


Agreed on all accounts, but do you rank Cruz as one of the Elite Power OFers now? I certainly don't
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby AquaMan2342 » Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:07 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games?? :-L


Agreed on all accounts, but do you rank Cruz as one of the Elite Power OFers now? I certainly don't


I guess it all depends on your definition of elite. Look at the OFs drafted before Cruz though. I think he can match the power outputs of guys like Holliday, Bay, Lind and Kemp, don't you? His bust probability is higher relative to those guys (except for Lind maybe?) but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's up there with Dunn and Braun as far as sheer power numbers go.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:19 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote: I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's up there with Dunn and Braun as far as sheer power numbers go.


Absolutely. All he needs is consistent health, and to stay in Texas. ;-D
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby Matthias » Sat Feb 06, 2010 5:32 am

DaSh 1s wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games?? :-L

Agreed on all accounts, but do you rank Cruz as one of the Elite Power OFers now? I certainly don't

Well, then we disagree.

I can't find my copy right now, but Shandler's Forecaster has him around fifth or so on his Px (power skill) ranking. And more generally, I would put him on the list of outfielders potentially able to hit 40 HRs this season. And that's a short list.

Edit: In Curtis' Wisdom of the Crowds spreadsheet, Cruz is also projected for 4th-most HRs among OFers.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby Matthias » Sat Feb 06, 2010 7:02 pm

Found it. Cruz had the eighth highest PX, which is Shandler's power variable, for hitters in the major leagues with over 400 ABs. The only OFer with a higher PX score was Adam Dunn. If you throw into the mix that power hitters hit their peaks in their late twenties to very early thirties, I think Cruz profiles as one of the best power options in the OF this year. I'd be concerned about his counting stats as I think he's penciled to hit 7th but if you're looking for power, I would call him elite no question.

And I'm also thinking that he's one of the safer bets as a lot of the guys Havok has over him are young and tough to predict with confidence (Upton, Bruce, McCutchen, Adam Jones) or older and I'm thinking might start seeing stat declines (Manny, Ichiro, Hunter, Soriano, Carlos Lee to a lesser extent) or are speed guys, which is not what I'm looking for from one of my top OFers (Ellsbury, Crawford, Pierre!!!!). In short, I don't think there's much of a way that I would have Cruz rated under the 15th OFer and I think he's arguably in the top 12.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby BUCCOFAN » Sat Feb 06, 2010 9:37 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:Milledge seems really, really high here....


I agree, and there is no way he is ranked higher then his teammate "Cutch"

Nice list none the less. ;-)
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 50 Outfielder Rankings

Postby stumpak » Sun Feb 07, 2010 10:44 am

Span is an oversight as well. Even a conserative .290/8/25 would put him in the top 50 easily when combined with the 100 R that should be attainable batting lead-off for a full season.
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