I'd take side A, but it is really really close IMO. I like Verlander considerably more than Santana. Santana is a guy I'm quite sure I won't be owning in many, or probably any leagues this year. He's a fly ball pitcher, with a putrid OF defense behind him, with an increasing walk rate and decreasing k-rate, and yet people will still pay through the nose for him.
Verlander certainly has questions given his miserable 2008 campaign, but I think he'll be fine. The reason I like side A better than side B is because Heyward has a much higher floor than Stanton. Stanton has contact issues, and though his power is off the charts, if he doesn't make more contact (which he has plenty of time to work on doing given his age and the fact he's in Double-A already) he'll be another monster power low BA batter. Thus, I like Heyward better, who also coincidentally may have the higher ceiling as well (though I think for fantasy purposes it'll be close).
At this point, the deals are fairly even IMO, the downgrade from Verlander to Santana is approximately equal to the upgrade from Stanton to Heyward. The deal swings in favor of team A with Bumgarner coming over for Brett Cecil. I like Cecil, don't get me wrong, good stuff, nice GB rate, decent ceiling, ok floor, but it pales in comparison to Bumgarner. Cecil is older, pitches in the tougher league, and in the toughest offensive division in baseball. Bumgarner is younger, pitches in the weaker league. Cecil, perhaps surprisingly, does get bonus points however for pitching in a more run supressing homeballpark, as AT&T has been slightly more favorable to scoring runs than a neutral ballpark.
Overall, not a lobsided win for team A, but a slight one.
I am the team getting Verlander. I have Lincecum and Halladay also. I like Verlander a lot more than Johan for the long-term, but I don't like giving up my two best prospects in the process. I do have plenty of other Minor League depth, and the idea of Lincecum, Halladay, and Verlander excites me.
Johan injuries, age, and decreasing skill set worries me, and Bumgarner continued loss of velocity is puzzling too. I am pretty close to pulling the trigger...
side A without a doubt. im not a fan of verlander at all so i could be somewhat biased. Johan>verlander, IMO, or at the very worst they are equal. but heyward/bumgarner>>>stanton/cecil. heyward and bumgarner should both see significant playing time this yr, i have a lot of confidence in the ability of heyward to become a future star in the league. stanton also has major power potential, maybe more than heyward, but he is going to strike out a lot and will most likely be a .260-.270ish hitter in the majors at best.
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by MG4hand4 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:07 pm 
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