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Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby bluejkrew » Mon Feb 22, 2010 4:36 pm

Hey, just wondering what the reason is for placing Zobrist so much lower than A. Hill.

Many experts predict Hill to not hit more than 30 HRs this year (something to do w/ a lucky HR/FB ratio last year??), and all things considered, Zobrist seems very capable of duplicating Hill's stats w/ the addition of a handful more steals, and the position flexibility.

I guess the bigger question for me is why are most ppl so down on Zobrist this year?? What am I missing?
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 22, 2010 5:56 pm

Is there some compelling reason to think Zobrist is any less of a fluke than Hill?
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby bluejkrew » Mon Feb 22, 2010 6:25 pm

Ender wrote:Is there some compelling reason to think Zobrist is any less of a fluke than Hill?


He supposedly hired a hitting coach near the end of the 2008 season to work on his mechanics. I know its not much evidence, but his stats for the final month of 2008 were up to par for most of last season..
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby Havok1517 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 8:03 pm

bluejkrew wrote:Hey, just wondering what the reason is for placing Zobrist so much lower than A. Hill.

Many experts predict Hill to not hit more than 30 HRs this year (something to do w/ a lucky HR/FB ratio last year??), and all things considered, Zobrist seems very capable of duplicating Hill's stats w/ the addition of a handful more steals, and the position flexibility.

I guess the bigger question for me is why are most ppl so down on Zobrist this year?? What am I missing?


Hill proved what he could do in 2007 and has battled injuries ever since until last season. He's produced in multiple years, he's a year younger than Zobrist, produced at a younger age, and Hill will likely have a better spot in the lineup.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Feb 22, 2010 8:15 pm

bluejkrew wrote:Many experts predict Hill to not hit more than 30 HRs this year (something to do w/ a lucky HR/FB ratio last year??), and all things considered, Zobrist seems very capable of duplicating Hill's stats w/ the addition of a handful more steals, and the position flexibility.

Zobrist HR/FB = 17.5%
Hill HR/FB = 14.9%
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby MrE » Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:57 pm

What is the likelyhood that Phillips DOES play shortstop?
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby kab21 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 2:24 am

MrE wrote:What is the likelyhood that Phillips DOES play shortstop?
zero, OCab is in town
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Tue Feb 23, 2010 3:27 am

Im quite confused. Is anyone cutting into Prado's palying time? He is prjected to get 423 AB's by Bill James and 405 by Chone, while Lowell, who will sit on the bench is projected 529 ABs by BillJames and 462 by Chone.
What am I missing here?
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby kab21 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:45 am

Syfo-Dyas wrote:Im quite confused. Is anyone cutting into Prado's palying time? He is prjected to get 423 AB's by Bill James and 405 by Chone, while Lowell, who will sit on the bench is projected 529 ABs by BillJames and 462 by Chone.
What am I missing here?


This is the downfall of mathematical projection systems. They are somewhat good for projecting rate stats based on past statistics. But you can't mathematically project playing time based on past statistics. there are too many variables that you can't account (principally other players on the roster taking their PT). but I do think they are somewhat useful for determining rate stats: BA/OBP/SLG, HR/FB%, etc...
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 2nd Basemen Rankings

Postby J.C.Fighter » Tue Feb 23, 2010 10:41 am

Sorry but these rankings are absolutely terrible.
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