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the most important stats for ranking pitchers

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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby abrunn11 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 12:02 pm

I really like this approach to evaluate pitching; http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/02/post_6.php I think it hots on the most important things to be a effective pitcher, missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. I do think that it lacks the element of control, but that can easly be added when you are evaluating each pitcher.

The link above shows you the stats from 2008 and helped me on who to target in 2009. Guys like De La Rosa, Jimenez and Jurrjens helped me tremendously last season.

I did the same analysis based on last years stats and this is what it looks like; http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AuEVlv44uoJMdDA1cXA5aTF1b2g1M3p2aEU3RnNEN3c&hl=en . You will notice a few guys in the Northeast quadrant that may surprise you but make sense when you look deeper into their statistics. Based on these stats, I will be targeting guys like Chad Gaudin, Gavin Floyd, Brett Anderson, and Jason Hammel late in drafts and hope that a few of them produce like De La Rosa, Jimenez and Jurrjens did last season.

I will also be cautious with guys like Jeff Niemann, J.A. Happ, Edwin Jackson and Sott Kazmir.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby Ender » Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:35 pm

yeah I liked that a lot as well abrunn11. Thanks for sharing your work on last years stats, will definitely take a look at it.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby swyck » Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:39 am

I like the quadrant analysis.

However I see a number of pitchers with 17+ k and even 18+k in the SW quad, e.g. Oswalt, Shields, which I don't think is correct based on your rankings. That would move a lot of them in to the SE quad.

As for Niemann he was a rookie that started off slow. His second half K rate was much higher, and GB rate increased as well. Plus his K rates were nice in the minors. Yeah I'd be cautious because he is young and he may not improve, but targeting him late wouldn't be a bad thing.

Would love to see a cube analysis incorporating bb%.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby abrunn11 » Sun Jan 31, 2010 10:26 am

swyck wrote:I like the quadrant analysis.

However I see a number of pitchers with 17+ k and even 18+k in the SW quad, e.g. Oswalt, Shields, which I don't think is correct based on your rankings. That would move a lot of them in to the SE quad.

As for Niemann he was a rookie that started off slow. His second half K rate was much higher, and GB rate increased as well. Plus his K rates were nice in the minors. Yeah I'd be cautious because he is young and he may not improve, but targeting him late wouldn't be a bad thing.

Would love to see a cube analysis incorporating bb%.


I originally had it at 19+ K/FB %, when I lowered it to 17% I failed to move the guys from the last quadrant. Thanks for the heads-up.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 11, 2010 5:52 pm

baseballprospectus developed a new stat called SIERA which appears to be the next big thing for ERA estimators. More importantly they did some research on how reliable the different ones are season to season.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=10042

It breaks down each estimator by specific pitcher types and shows which are the best and worst within that group which I thought was nice. FIP beat xFIP for next year predictions btw, so I'll eat some crow~. However they are using park adjustments so I guess that isn't a surprise since xFIP is trying to pull those adjustments out of play. SIERA pretty much dominated the field though, so it looks like it will be the one to have in the future.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby garf112 » Thu Feb 11, 2010 6:55 pm

Manny Parra again??? I guess he is the exception that proves the rule?
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:46 pm

Ender wrote:FIP beat xFIP for next year predictions btw, so I'll eat some crow~.


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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby J35J » Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:49 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
Ender wrote:FIP beat xFIP for next year predictions btw, so I'll eat some crow~.


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Don't tell mweir...his head might asplode!!!
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby Ender » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:52 am

But again they park adjusted it so you would expect that to favor FIP over xFIP. xFIP is trying to pull the HR park adjustment out of the equation. I think in general it is important to look at both of them and the way they trend when judging a pitcher.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby J35J » Sat Feb 13, 2010 1:23 pm

Ender wrote:But again they park adjusted it so you would expect that to favor FIP over xFIP. xFIP is trying to pull the HR park adjustment out of the equation. I think in general it is important to look at both of them and the way they trend when judging a pitcher.



Sshhhh....I want to see mweir's head asplode!!!!
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