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the most important stats for ranking pitchers

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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:56 am

xFIP


No. :-t





The Artful Dodger wrote:I just throw darts with pitcher's names on it and the dart that's closest or right at the bull's eye is the pitcher I take.


*crickets*
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:01 am

how about batters' BABIP?
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby dmbjeff » Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:44 am

K's and WHIP are the only 2 categories which a pitcher has the most control over his stats. So look at K/9 rate for K's and for WHIP, look at BB/9 and opponents BA. Wins can not be quantified ever. Granted most Big name pitchers with great skill sets end up with 16-18 wins, after those elite guys, you can't determine who will have that many and who won't. ERA usually goes hand in hand with WHIP in most cases, the fewer runners on base, the fewer runs will score.

I try to grab an elite K and WHIP guy for my first SP and go from there. As you draft later, look for guys who could breakout due to their K potential or noticing if a guy's control has been improving or had either one of those skills as a minor leaguer. SP is so volitile, year to year guys breakout for one reason or another and there are so many gems to be found later or off the waiver wire, but make sure to have a few surer things first.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby B-Chad » Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:11 am

AussieDodger wrote:
xFIP


No. :-t



Why?
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby Ender » Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:17 am

AussieDodger wrote:
xFIP


No. :-t





The Artful Dodger wrote:I just throw darts with pitcher's names on it and the dart that's closest or right at the bull's eye is the pitcher I take.


*crickets*


It is the best of the bunch if you understand how to use it. It shows the strongest yearly correlation and it strongly correlates career wise to actual ERA. None of the composite stats are perfect but xFIP is certainly better than something like tRA or just normal FIP.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:42 am

Ender wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
xFIP


No. :-t





The Artful Dodger wrote:I just throw darts with pitcher's names on it and the dart that's closest or right at the bull's eye is the pitcher I take.


*crickets*


It is the best of the bunch if you understand how to use it. It shows the strongest yearly correlation and it strongly correlates career wise to actual ERA. None of the composite stats are perfect but xFIP is certainly better than something like tRA or just normal FIP.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/


xFIP (Link)
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.


Different pitchers allow different HR/FB, this stat shouldn't just be neutralised.
Strongly dislike.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby Ender » Fri Jan 29, 2010 10:35 am

Different pitchers allow different HR/FB, this stat shouldn't just be neutralised.
Strongly dislike


Most pitchers allow league average over multiple seasons though. Pitchers have some control over HR/FB, LOB% and BABIP but obviously ERA is a terrible stat because all of these things vary a lot season to season. FIP corrects for 2 and ignores the 3rd which is just as terrible. HR/FB most certainly should be neutralized just as much as LOB% or BABIP though, it is no different than those. It would be better if they were regressed towards the pitchers career numbers but we don't have anything that sophisticated to use.

I generally look at the yearly xFIP trend. If a players xFIP is improving each year than he is improving even if his ERA says he isn't. If his xFIP is going the wrong way then I will avoid him. To me FIP is mostly useless, a stat that corrects for 2 things but not the 3rd is just not going to be useful to me, it is picking out the pitchers that got lucky with HR/FB and telling you to avoid the ones that had bad luck with it. tRA is too busy deciding how good a pitcher's results were for a year and not trying to isolate out the variance.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Jan 29, 2010 10:36 am

The Artful Dodger wrote:I just throw darts with pitcher's names on it and the dart that's closest or right at the bull's eye is the pitcher I take.

Whenever I see one of your rosters, that's always what I just assumed you did.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Jan 29, 2010 11:15 am

dicehound wrote:I've been playing fantasy baseball for a long time and my eyes glaze over at all the new fancy stats out there. I know I'm just an old man and I need to get with the times because I'm sure those stats are useful, but my alltime favorite stat to help me forecast a pitcher's success is batting average against. It's served me well and still does, and I don't need a degree to understand it.

BAA is good to use but doesn't help much if the pitcher walks a bunch of hitters. You'll end up with Carlos Zambrano anchoring your staff most years.
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Re: the most important stats for ranking pitchers

Postby kab21 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 11:27 am

I like the combo of K rate and BB rate. GB rate is nice but it's a distant 3rd in preference. I don't have any set numbers that I like to see in a pitcher but if a pitcher has a K rate below 7 OR a BB rate above 3.5 then they better be spectacular in the other 2 rate stats.
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