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Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

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Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 2:26 am

Top 25 1st Base Rankings
1. A. Pujols (Stl) – Do I really have to explain?
2. P. Fielder (Mil) – Young and playing for a contract
3. M. Teixera (NYY) – The lineup in front of him might be too good
4. M. Cabrera (Det) – The exodus in Detroit could hurt
5. R. Howard (Phi) – Hitting and plate discipline improving, 8 SB in ‘09
6. J. Morneau (Min) – People forget he lost a month of the season
7. A. Gonzalez (SD) – Padres haven’t gotten better and he’s still hitting in SD
8. J. Votto (Cin) – The guy is money and he doesn’t even know it
9. K. Morales (LAA) – He’s finally the guy the Angels hoped he’d be
10. M. Reynolds (Ari) – Has a lot to prove in ’10, but ’09 was impressive
11. K. Youkilis (Bos) – Might finally get the cleanup spot he deserves
12. A. Dunn (Was) – The guy is only 30 and is usually a lock for 40HR 100RBI
13. L. Berkman (Hou) – Had an injury filled season, but he can bounce back
14. C. Pena (TB) – Say what you want, the guy can be very productive
15. P. Sandoval (SF) – SF looks to be improved but I don’t like his body at 3B
16. V. Martinez (Bos) – Losing Bay will hurt him most of all, C eligibility
17. B. Butler (KC) – I’ve long been a fan and he could have a monster year
18. D. Lee (ChC) – Had a resurgent ’09, but he’s 34 and not elite anymore
19. J. Loney (LAD) – If only this guy could hit homers
20. C. Davis (Tex) – Swing and a miss in ’09, tons of talent, Smoak may push him
21. T. Helton (Col) – He’s not the basher he used to be but that is OK if healthy
22. J. Cantu (Fla) – 3B eligible and major trade candidate, hit 100 RBIs in ‘09
23. T. Glaus (Atl) – If he plays he’ll produce at 1B as Chipper isn’t moving
24. P. Konerko (ChW) – Nice park, good team, great table setters in front of him
25. Ad. Laroche (Ari) – I think his bat plays well in Arizona

- Using 10 GMS Played, 5 GMS started criteria

Prospects
1. J. Smoak (Tex) – Polished and knocking on the door, big upside
2. L. Morrison (FLA) – Close to ready but needs the Marlins to clear some space
3. Y. Alonso (Cin) – When he’s ready, the athletic Votto will likely move to LF
4. F. Freeman (Atl) – Not sure if Glaus will work out, but a he’s the future 1B
5. C. Carter (Oak) - Should transition nicely into a full time corner man
Last edited by Havok1517 on Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby hot4tx » Wed Jan 27, 2010 10:15 am

Reynolds is an interesting case. I'm always leery of buying in on the past year's performance alone, but if you look at his 2008 numbers it gives a little more confidence. I don't think he'll hit .260 again (thought that doesn't mean he won't) but even if he hits .245 or .250 he should get 33-35 HRs, 95 R and RBI, and about 15 SBs.

If you can take the hit in average, I'd take that line over Morneau's average stat line over the past couple years for sure. Probably take it over Adrian Gonzalez's two-year average, and its better than any year Votto has ever had. Sure you hope Votto will continue improving, but if you are drafting Votto based on some upside potential then you have to consider Reynolds' 2009 as upside.

Reynolds plays better in HTH (which I mostly play now) than in roto with that average pulling you down, but I don't have any problems putting him just under Ryan Howard. And again I'm normally the "show me first" guy when drafting the first 4 rounds or so. Now that Reynolds has shown us two years of studly 4-cat production we shouldn't have to wait around for him to continue to show me.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Jan 27, 2010 10:20 am

reynold's value is more tied to him being a 3B as it's a much shallower position. still, he's going at around the 2nd round, so havok must not think highly of him.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Jan 27, 2010 11:22 am

Sandoval behind Pena? :-S Is a 10-12 HR boost really worth the 70 point hit in AVG?
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby hot4tx » Wed Jan 27, 2010 12:20 pm

I think the 20 R+RBI and ~15 HRs difference might make up the 70 points difference in batting average. A lot of it probably depends on the team you have around them and if you're playing roto or HTH and other league setting. In OBP instead of BA leagues it makes them closer to even in that category, giving Pena more of an edge in overall value.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby Montana168 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 3:20 pm

great list, pretty much the same rankings as you'll find anywhere else. biggest difference (although not large) is the positioning of reynolds and morneau. i think morneau is a great 1b that is not getting much love this offseason because of last yr's injury, and he could slip to a round where he's a steal, i put him where you have him at 6, whereas most will put him closer to 10. while i am wary of reynolds' repeat, i can't just say that he won't hit .260+ again. for those of us who hit on him last yr and rode him all yr, u'll understand that he was hitting over or around the .280 mark for 3-4 months, the reason his avg is all the way down to .260 was because of a .180 mark in sept. i know he K's are his signature turnoff, but his 3 yr progression in the majors are steady. reynolds is a very determined player and works hard at his position and improved defensively as well last yr. while i won't draft him over arod, longo, or wright, he should be right behind them. he's definately risky, but i can see another 100-40-100-15-.260 yr from him.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:26 pm

Nerfherders wrote:Putting all the possible 1B guys on this list is a little misleading. Reynolds, Youk, Sandoval are going to have way more value at 3B. Martinez, WAY more value at C. Nobody should draft those players to play 1B, unless you get Longoria or A-Rod in the first round.


Well, if I was only doing one installment that might be misleading but I plan on doing all positions. Plus, some people will draft someone like Sandoval to play 1B and someone like Martinez I'm sure will be drafted to play 1B even though they have more value at other spots. I'm just attempting to cover everyone eligible.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby bigken117 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:29 pm

Havok1517 wrote:
Nerfherders wrote:Putting all the possible 1B guys on this list is a little misleading. Reynolds, Youk, Sandoval are going to have way more value at 3B. Martinez, WAY more value at C. Nobody should draft those players to play 1B, unless you get Longoria or A-Rod in the first round.


Well, if I was only doing one installment that might be misleading but I plan on doing all positions. Plus, some people will draft someone like Sandoval to play 1B and someone like Martinez I'm sure will be drafted to play 1B even though they have more value at other spots. I'm just attempting to cover everyone eligible.


Just read past the guys you would draft to play other positions.
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Re: Havok's 2010 Top 25 1st Basemen Ranking

Postby hybrid » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:41 pm

As far as the prospects go, I'd have Carter a lot higher especially for fantasy (#1 or 2). He has huge power, something that can really pay off once he gets called up, the other guys I don't see getting much time or really contributing as soon.
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