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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby J35J » Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:39 am

You guys are still overrating MLB readiness. It doesn't matter if he's going to play if he isn't that great. I draft minor leaguers in a minor league draft in hopes they turn into superstars...not in hopes that they can be mediocore and help ASAP. The major league draft is where I am getting my players to help right away, I'm not overly worried about that with my minor leaguers, but of course if you can get both, a stud prospect who is also major league ready then sure he's what you are looking for but I'm not going to bump up mediocore prospects just because they are in AAA and closer to MLB ready.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby Steve-o » Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:46 am

J35J wrote:You guys are still overrating MLB readiness. It doesn't matter if he's going to play if he isn't that great. I draft minor leaguers in a minor league draft in hopes they turn into superstars...not in hopes that they can be mediocore and help ASAP. The major league draft is where I am getting my players to help right away, I'm not overly worried about that with my minor leaguers, but of course if you can get both, a stud prospect who is also major league ready then sure he's what you are looking for but I'm not going to bump up mediocore prospects just because they are in AAA and closer to MLB ready.


But that's the problem with this list. It's my understanding from the previous posts that their league doesn't have a minor league roster, so any minor leaguers you draft have to eat a bench spot until they are ready. Bench spots are valuable, and for that reason alone, I'd also more heavily weight MLB readiness in their league as well.

I guess my concern is that this list is geared towards, I dunno, at most 5% of the fantasy baseball people who visit this forum on this site. It's fine for those leagues, but for the rest of us, it has limited usefulness imo.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby J35J » Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:59 am

Steve-o wrote:
J35J wrote:You guys are still overrating MLB readiness. It doesn't matter if he's going to play if he isn't that great. I draft minor leaguers in a minor league draft in hopes they turn into superstars...not in hopes that they can be mediocore and help ASAP. The major league draft is where I am getting my players to help right away, I'm not overly worried about that with my minor leaguers, but of course if you can get both, a stud prospect who is also major league ready then sure he's what you are looking for but I'm not going to bump up mediocore prospects just because they are in AAA and closer to MLB ready.


But that's the problem with this list. It's my understanding from the previous posts that their league doesn't have a minor league roster, so any minor leaguers you draft have to eat a bench spot until they are ready. Bench spots are valuable, and for that reason alone, I'd also more heavily weight MLB readiness in their league as well.

I guess my concern is that this list is geared towards, I dunno, at most 5% of the fantasy baseball people who visit this forum on this site. It's fine for those leagues, but for the rest of us, it has limited usefulness imo.

Agreed. And if this is the case it needs a big bold warning at the top of the first post indicating what this list is specifically geared towards....and Bryce Harper should be nowhere near this list.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 7:34 pm

J35J wrote:
Steve-o wrote:
J35J wrote:You guys are still overrating MLB readiness. It doesn't matter if he's going to play if he isn't that great. I draft minor leaguers in a minor league draft in hopes they turn into superstars...not in hopes that they can be mediocore and help ASAP. The major league draft is where I am getting my players to help right away, I'm not overly worried about that with my minor leaguers, but of course if you can get both, a stud prospect who is also major league ready then sure he's what you are looking for but I'm not going to bump up mediocore prospects just because they are in AAA and closer to MLB ready.


But that's the problem with this list. It's my understanding from the previous posts that their league doesn't have a minor league roster, so any minor leaguers you draft have to eat a bench spot until they are ready. Bench spots are valuable, and for that reason alone, I'd also more heavily weight MLB readiness in their league as well.

I guess my concern is that this list is geared towards, I dunno, at most 5% of the fantasy baseball people who visit this forum on this site. It's fine for those leagues, but for the rest of us, it has limited usefulness imo.

Agreed. And if this is the case it needs a big bold warning at the top of the first post indicating what this list is specifically geared towards....and Bryce Harper should be nowhere near this list.


I still need to address a few of the more ready players, most of whom have been affected by situtational changes since we wrote the list. Our league has minor leaguers and major leaguers. Every league is different. But our list really has very little to do with our specific league setup. I'll address the changes in my next post. But for all of these similar complaints, in a lot of ways, projecting near term value is like trying to hit a moving dartboard. It certainly lends itself to release towards the end of spring training after major league spots have been won. That in no way devalues the debate of proven value versus projected value. Of course I love to have top talents on my team. Matusz, Bumgarner, Wieters and Rasmus are all on rookie team. That doesn't mean that Eric Young may not prove more valuable than all of them if gets a starting spot in april and puts up a 110R, 8HR, 60RBI, 70SB, .300 line.
It doesn't mean that Scott Sizemore's VORP will not exceed all 4 of them either. It also means getting gauranteed value today. It's nice to have Perez, Lyles and these high school pitchers like Shelby Miller, but a lot can happen between now and the 5 years you're going to hold out for them to be successful, when you could have just drafted Sizemore and gotten immediate ROI. Conversely, it is foolish to pass-up on absolute talent if the upside outweighs the risk. But pushing 18 year old pitchers as good bets is foolish compared to the Linceum, Price, Strasburg types, who's bodies are more mature, have quicker paths to the majors, and have proven they can handle innings.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby kab21 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 8:19 pm

The problem is that nobody is pushing Shelby Miller on you. Most have said that if you want a more MLB ready player then it's just a different list a typical top prospects list. What is being debated is that you have several prospects on here that are close to the majors but are not good bets to be decent MLB players. And the other problem is that you try to sell mlb readiness as a big factor but then include a HS player, a college player, Beckham and Banuelos (and possibly a few others). You can't make an argument both ways can you?

Prospecting is a balance of upside vs downside (or ceiling/floor) and scouting reports vs stats. imo you are too focused on high floor and stats while overlooking the others.

And just as a point of reference I have a 24 tm dynasty that rosters 360+ MiLB'ers. if I don't roster the upside players I will never get them. Grabbing a guy like JMontero has paid off very well so far. He shouldn't have been anywhere near your list last year. And I was also able to get Westmoreland last offseason before he became the next big thing (and perhaps a tad overrated) could pay off well also. You are also going to get some busts but it happens.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:59 am

kab21 wrote:The problem is that nobody is pushing Shelby Miller on you. Most have said that if you want a more MLB ready player then it's just a different list a typical top prospects list. What is being debated is that you have several prospects on here that are close to the majors but are not good bets to be decent MLB players. And the other problem is that you try to sell mlb readiness as a big factor but then include a HS player, a college player, Beckham and Banuelos (and possibly a few others). You can't make an argument both ways can you?

Prospecting is a balance of upside vs downside (or ceiling/floor) and scouting reports vs stats. imo you are too focused on high floor and stats while overlooking the others.

And just as a point of reference I have a 24 tm dynasty that rosters 360+ MiLB'ers. if I don't roster the upside players I will never get them. Grabbing a guy like JMontero has paid off very well so far. He shouldn't have been anywhere near your list last year. And I was also able to get Westmoreland last offseason before he became the next big thing (and perhaps a tad overrated) could pay off well also. You are also going to get some busts but it happens.


Well, rostering 360 milbers certainly lends itself to addressing highest ceiling first. The list is top 50 prospects, regardless of league setup. I do mention in the setup for the list that i'm assuming 5 to 10 rookies per team, though I do not specify the number of teams, which certainly has an impact (i was assuming 12 to 14 teams). Though using your example, if you're in a 360 milber league, a 24 fantasy team league, Scott Sizemore has a ton of value. I'm not sure how many keepers you have. But if he does put up anywhere near 15 homers and 15 steals for you at 2B next year thats a huge value in a 24 team league, considering the crap everyone else will have to role out, and waste early picks in many cases to get that crap. What a value to get in your rookie draft. That may allow you to draft some strong starting pitching that you wouldn't have been able to get otherwise, or you could snag a closer a bit earlier than you might have been able to before. So unless you're not trying to win this season (something we all should assume IS the case), Sizemore makes a great pick.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:34 am

TheBakester66 wrote:
Well, rostering 360 milbers certainly lends itself to addressing highest ceiling first. The list is top 50 prospects, regardless of league setup. I do mention in the setup for the list that i'm assuming 5 to 10 rookies per team, though I do not specify the number of teams, which certainly has an impact (i was assuming 12 to 14 teams). Though using your example, if you're in a 360 milber league, a 24 fantasy team league, Scott Sizemore has a ton of value. I'm not sure how many keepers you have. But if he does put up anywhere near 15 homers and 15 steals for you at 2B next year thats a huge value in a 24 team league, considering the crap everyone else will have to role out, and waste early picks in many cases to get that crap. What a value to get in your rookie draft. That may allow you to draft some strong starting pitching that you wouldn't have been able to get otherwise, or you could snag a closer a bit earlier than you might have been able to before. So unless you're not trying to win this season (something we all should assume IS the case), Sizemore makes a great pick.


Sizemore is one of the guys that I have the least problem with. I would just move him down to 40-60 range. the problems with sizemore is that he doesn't have a long track record of success and he had off-season surgery (or at least an injury). He was relatively mediocre esp in the power dept before last year and he's moving into a tough hitters park in the AL. Projecting 15 HR's is optimistic, he might be more of a 6-10 HR guy that moves off of 2B in a couple of years (below average defense).

another problem I have is how much shifting around happens with respect to guys that could have a starting position day 1. these guys are getting rated higher than better prospects that should appear by mid-season. If a league has any sort of minors system waiting a 1/2 season isn't a big deal.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Thu Feb 04, 2010 2:23 pm

kab21 wrote:Sizemore is one of the guys that I have the least problem with. I would just move him down to 40-60 range. the problems with sizemore is that he doesn't have a long track record of success and he had off-season surgery (or at least an injury). He was relatively mediocre esp in the power dept before last year and he's moving into a tough hitters park in the AL. Projecting 15 HR's is optimistic, he might be more of a 6-10 HR guy that moves off of 2B in a couple of years (below average defense).

another problem I have is how much shifting around happens with respect to guys that could have a starting position day 1. these guys are getting rated higher than better prospects that should appear by mid-season. If a league has any sort of minors system waiting a 1/2 season isn't a big deal.


Kab,

I agree. I think the new rankings will fit more in line with this. Again on the whole, I think we missed the boat on a few guys, and when the list is redone, it will look as solid as the 2009 list does in retrospect. Oh, and I've come around on Logan. Thanks for the input. I'm still not sold on Frazier or (to a lesser extent) Freeman, but Freeman will probably end up making the updated list as well.
He did make the 2009 list for a reason.

Any thoughts on David Freese's value for 2010? I'm finding it hard to not like him for this season. He's had 25 homer pop for the past 3 years, and batted above .300 in AA and AAA. No speed, but as of right now, he's the starting 3B in StL. Why take a guy like Josh Bell, or Dayan Viceido over him?

-Chris
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby Steve-o » Thu Feb 04, 2010 7:40 pm

TheBakester66 wrote:Any thoughts on David Freese's value for 2010? I'm finding it hard to not like him for this season. He's had 25 homer pop for the past 3 years, and batted above .300 in AA and AAA. No speed, but as of right now, he's the starting 3B in StL. Why take a guy like Josh Bell, or Dayan Viceido over him?

-Chris


Because Josh Bell has the potential to be a much better 3B since he projects for better power and average. To me, a big part of projecting prospects isn't just the numbers, but the comparison of the numbers to the age, league, park, etc. For example, Bell had a very good year in AA as a 22 year old. Freese also had a very good year in AAA, but he was 26. That's damn near peak age, plus he was playing the PCL, plus in a homer friendly park. When you look at his MLE's, that translates to .264/.329/.448. Why are you even drafting a 3B with a line like that? Even if you anticipate a 5% increase in his peak age 27 season, that's still only an .816 OPS. Again, unless your league is ultra deep, that's pretty much replacement level 3B. Bell at least has the potential to develop into much more.

Are you doing an age/league/park factor in your rankings?


Edit - fix link.
Last edited by Steve-o on Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:30 pm

I wouldn't touch Viciedo in the top 100. But I do like Josh Bell. His scouting reports are better and he's 3.5 yrs younger than Freese. His track record is like Sizemore though. He has performed so-so for a prospect the last couple of years but reports are that he lost around 30 lbs before last season so that could explain his breakout. It's also led some to believe that he can stick at 3B for awhile (let's say 5 yrs) since he's not a great defender.

Freese was 24 in A+ in 2007 and 25/26 in AAA the last two years. To an extent he's supposed to perform well and he almost needs to stick as an MLB'er this season to avoid the dreaded AAAA player label. He's a lot like Valencia from MN in that respect. I see the probable upside from both of these guys as .775 OPS players in the majors. His avg will also almost for sure come down to the .270-.280 range since he's had BAPIP's of .385+ the last two years in AAA.
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