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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 9:07 am

It seems as though everyone has a problem with the same 5 guys.

I read multiple scouting reports on every player on the list. I take their projected major league returns seriously. Any list is worthless without one or the other.

I appreciate all of the criticism on the list. We didn't get hammered as much last year including players like Cahill, Anderson, Cecil, Fowler, Hanson, Teagarden, Porcello, Gamel, Zimmerman, Chris Perez, Gio Gonzalez, etc. Perhaps because they all had better scouting reports than Maloney and Poreda.

I went back and read my review on Logan Morrison in 2009. Loved the kid.

Speaking of my 2009 list, It seems more fleshed out than this years. A lot more upside, a lot less blah.

I'm going to go back and take a second look at the rankings. I hate eating my words, but certainly a few of these guys need to move.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby mblax10 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 10:19 am

TheBakester66 wrote:I appreciate all of the criticism on the list. We didn't get hammered as much last year including players like Cahill, Anderson, Cecil, Fowler, Hanson, Teagarden, Porcello, Gamel, Zimmerman, Chris Perez, Gio Gonzalez, etc. Perhaps because they all had better scouting reports than Maloney and Poreda.


Exactly. Almost all of those guys were loved by scouts. The guys last year to compare to Maloney and Poreda are guys like David Huff, Sean West, Jose Ceda, Jason Donald, Chris Dickerson, Bryan Anderson, Kila Ka'ahuie and from your list Perez. Gonzalez is a good comp to Poreda because the scouts once loved him but as he's aged, he's not developed as most thought.

The guys you just listed from '09 scouts loved and were close the the big leagues. The perfect mix. That would be like listing Desmond Jennings, Jayson Heyward, Buster Posey, Tyler Flowers & Austin Jackson than asking a year later how did I do picking guys based on MLB readiness?
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby kab21 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 10:49 am

TheBakester66 wrote:It seems as though everyone has a problem with the same 5 guys.

I read multiple scouting reports on every player on the list. I take their projected major league returns seriously. Any list is worthless without one or the other.

I appreciate all of the criticism on the list. We didn't get hammered as much last year including players like Cahill, Anderson, Cecil, Fowler, Hanson, Teagarden, Porcello, Gamel, Zimmerman, Chris Perez, Gio Gonzalez, etc. Perhaps because they all had better scouting reports than Maloney and Poreda.

I went back and read my review on Logan Morrison in 2009. Loved the kid.

Speaking of my 2009 list, It seems more fleshed out than this years. A lot more upside, a lot less blah.

I'm going to go back and take a second look at the rankings. I hate eating my words, but certainly a few of these guys need to move.


I would includeBowden and Wilkin ramirez to Poreda and maloney. bowden is blocked, on a team that doesn't like to settle for mediocre (likely moving him to be a MR), pitches in the AL East with fringy stuff.

One that I didn't mention before is swapping Drabek and jaime Garcia. Drabek has shown that he's healthy by pitching a complete season while I'm still waiting on Garcia for that. Drabek also was fairly young for his league (as you mention) and that doesn't include missed development time. It's also been said that post TJ pitchers see their best results in their 2nd season back. As far as stuff goes Drabek has a good fastball and an awesome breaking ball but his change needs a little work. But you aren't alone in thinking that Drabek is overrated.

Any reason that guys like Michael saunders, jon niese michael Brantley, Zack Stewart and alex avila didn't make it. I'm not huge fans of these guys but they seem to fit your criteria fairly well. Brandon Allen and Brandon Snyder are another pair that could have starting postions in 2011.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby rmsshea2 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 11:22 am

Poredo and Maloney do seem to be the 2 that have received the most criticism. Is SD hadn't signed Garland, Poreda would have good chance at a starting spot in SD. You don't have to be great to put up solid numbers in SD (Correia). Compare that to Wade Davis or Matusz in Baltimore. I believe Matusz is a far better pitcher than Poreda. But I might take 30 starts of Poreda in SD over 30 starts of Matusz in BAL next year. So, I think Poreda's spot on the list was justified. With the signing of Garland, Poreda should drop significantly and possibly off the list.

As for Maloney, I still think he has fantasy value. Even in Cincy, we've seen average pitchers like Arroyo put up solid fantasy numbers. Maloney's career minor league whip of 1.17 shows he has control. With Volquez hurt and Harang likely on his way out, I have to believe Maloney pitches >150 MLB innings this year. I predict he will be fantasy relevant in deeper leagues (>12 teams mixed) for the next few seasons. Some of the high upside guys that we might move ahead of him may not be fantasy relevant for 3 years. In that time, it's also possible that their scouting reports go the way Gio Gonzalez or Aaron Poreda.

So for fantasy leagues with shallow or no minor league roster, Maloney trumps high upside few years away types. In leagues with larger minor league rosters, owners looking for immediate impact should consider Maloney as well. Thus, I still back keeping Maloney near where his sits now (approximately 30th) in the rankings.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 5:19 pm

kab21 wrote:I would includeBowden and Wilkin ramirez to Poreda and maloney. bowden is blocked, on a team that doesn't like to settle for mediocre (likely moving him to be a MR), pitches in the AL East with fringy stuff.

One that I didn't mention before is swapping Drabek and jaime Garcia. Drabek has shown that he's healthy by pitching a complete season while I'm still waiting on Garcia for that. Drabek also was fairly young for his league (as you mention) and that doesn't include missed development time. It's also been said that post TJ pitchers see their best results in their 2nd season back. As far as stuff goes Drabek has a good fastball and an awesome breaking ball but his change needs a little work. But you aren't alone in thinking that Drabek is overrated.

Any reason that guys like Michael saunders, jon niese michael Brantley, Zack Stewart and alex avila didn't make it. I'm not huge fans of these guys but they seem to fit your criteria fairly well. Brandon Allen and Brandon Snyder are another pair that could have starting postions in 2011.


Garcia could start for the cards, I see fairly little possiblity of Drabek starting for Toronto. In addition, Garcia has had better scouting reports and better numbers as a youngster across the board. Drabek would have to start in the AL East. Garcia in the NL central.

Brandon Snyder doesn't have a spot on the major league lineup. I LOVE Brandon Allen, but he also is out of a spot now that Adam LaRoche is signed.
I'd rather have a guy like Logan Morisson with a shot to start as soon as he's ready. I like Saunders, but he still has to compete with Bradley, Griffey, and Everidge, so I don't think he's seeing any time soon either. Jon Niese has really only had one good year as a prospect, in 2006. Michael Brantley has a spot. Though 30 SB, 0 pop OF's are not nearly as valuable as they used to be. he's also struggled to get on-base at every level, and i certainly think that will be exploited in the majors. He also has Nick Weglarz behind him in the org, so he's defninetly not the long-term solution. Zack Stewart - again, i have a problem with minor league relievers, and cordero isn't going anywhere. Avila i like, but he's not guaranteed anything this year, and i dont think his 2011 future is clear either at this point.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby kab21 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:35 pm

TheBakester66 wrote:
Garcia could start for the cards, I see fairly little possiblity of Drabek starting for Toronto. In addition, Garcia has had better scouting reports and better numbers as a youngster across the board. Drabek would have to start in the AL East. Garcia in the NL central.

Brandon Snyder doesn't have a spot on the major league lineup. I LOVE Brandon Allen, but he also is out of a spot now that Adam LaRoche is signed.
I'd rather have a guy like Logan Morisson with a shot to start as soon as he's ready. I like Saunders, but he still has to compete with Bradley, Griffey, and Everidge, so I don't think he's seeing any time soon either. Jon Niese has really only had one good year as a prospect, in 2006. Michael Brantley has a spot. Though 30 SB, 0 pop OF's are not nearly as valuable as they used to be. he's also struggled to get on-base at every level, and i certainly think that will be exploited in the majors. He also has Nick Weglarz behind him in the org, so he's defninetly not the long-term solution. Zack Stewart - again, i have a problem with minor league relievers, and cordero isn't going anywhere. Avila i like, but he's not guaranteed anything this year, and i dont think his 2011 future is clear either at this point.


I don't think Garcia's scouting reports are as good as Drabek's and he still hasn't shown me that he is relatively healthy.

I can see placing an emphasis on contributing soon but you're placing too much emphasis on being the opening day starter since several of these players should be up by midseason or 2011 the latest as starters. Snyder is blocked by Atkins. Saunders is blocked by Bradley and Griffey (two injury-prone players), he's going to play a lot this year. Niese has had excellent K rates, BB rates and GB rates at pretty much every stop and is blocked by the impending disaster of the Mets rotation. Brantley has a .387 OBP in the minors so I don't see how he's struggled. And the 49 SB's last year suggest a little more upside than 30 and Nick Weglarz is terrible defensively (he better hope that he can DH). Stewart has been traded to Toronto and he's planned to be used as a starter. He's been used as RP to reduce his innings as he transitions from college RP'er to MLB starter but he's got good stuff for a starter. Avila is going to get more PT than Wilkin and Laird is fairly terrible so I see Avila starting to get most of the Catcher AB's by midseason.

Again I don't love these players but they seemingly fit your criteria except that they aren't opening day starters but they will get their PT soon.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 8:57 am

kab21 wrote:I don't think Garcia's scouting reports are as good as Drabek's and he still hasn't shown me that he is relatively healthy.

I can see placing an emphasis on contributing soon but you're placing too much emphasis on being the opening day starter since several of these players should be up by midseason or 2011 the latest as starters. Snyder is blocked by Atkins. Saunders is blocked by Bradley and Griffey (two injury-prone players), he's going to play a lot this year. Niese has had excellent K rates, BB rates and GB rates at pretty much every stop and is blocked by the impending disaster of the Mets rotation. Brantley has a .387 OBP in the minors so I don't see how he's struggled. And the 49 SB's last year suggest a little more upside than 30 and Nick Weglarz is terrible defensively (he better hope that he can DH). Stewart has been traded to Toronto and he's planned to be used as a starter. He's been used as RP to reduce his innings as he transitions from college RP'er to MLB starter but he's got good stuff for a starter. Avila is going to get more PT than Wilkin and Laird is fairly terrible so I see Avila starting to get most of the Catcher AB's by midseason.

Again I don't love these players but they seemingly fit your criteria except that they aren't opening day starters but they will get their PT soon.


Many have soured on Drabek's projections, and his numbers never fit his scouting reports anwyays.
There's still a lot to love about Garcia, he seemed to pitch well after recovering from injury. And his younger numbers all projected extremely favorably with the top pitchers his age at the time.

Oh, and i'm not sure who was mad about grant green, but i'm glad Keith Law agreed with me:
Klaw wrote:Surprised to see Grant Green so low. Is that because you don't give him much chance at SS? If he was guaranteed to stick at SS, where would he rank?

Klaw (1:42 PM)

I have doubts about his ability to stay at SS, and his power potential. If you pull out the '09 draftees on this list, you'll find I hewed pretty close the order in which I had them in June, only moving guys where we got new information (e.g., Mike Trout having a great summer at 17 in the AZL).
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 11:32 am

Keith Law on Todd Frazier:

Ryan (Cincinnati)


Considering all of the Reds pitchers are flyball guys, could Todd Frazier hold his own at SS?

Klaw (2:24 PM)


No.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby kab21 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 12:08 pm

Many have soured on Drabek's projections, and his numbers never fit his scouting reports anwyays.
There's still a lot to love about Garcia, he seemed to pitch well after recovering from injury. And his younger numbers all projected extremely favorably with the top pitchers his age at the time.


They may have soured but I'm not sure if there is one site that has Garcia in the same neighborhood as Drabek. these are the 'sour' rankings that I found in 5 minutes.

KLaw top 100
Drabek #40 but he's behind a lot rk ball and A ball players that also don't make your list
Garcia unranked

Project Prospect
Drabek - #10 pitching prospect
Garcia - unranked out of 30 pitchers

John Manuel of BA posted at SI - top 20
Drabek - #16 overall
Garcia - unranked out of 20

Jim Callis
- I can't find his personal top 50 but it's posted somewhere, but this sums up what he thinks about Drabek

Scott (Milwaukee)
can't wait for the handbook...Who are your personal top 5 pitchers?

Jim Callis
(2:35 PM)
Strasburg, Feliz, Matusz, Bumgarner, Drabek.



John Sickels
Drabek - B+ (61 prospects received a B+ or better)
Garcia - B-

The crazy thing is i do like Garcia as a sleeper but he's not in the same tier as Drabek. And I think it's a little premature to say that Garcia is back based on 37.2 innings.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby rmsshea2 » Sun Jan 31, 2010 9:36 am

kab21 wrote:
Many have soured on Drabek's projections, and his numbers never fit his scouting reports anwyays.
There's still a lot to love about Garcia, he seemed to pitch well after recovering from injury. And his younger numbers all projected extremely favorably with the top pitchers his age at the time.


They may have soured but I'm not sure if there is one site that has Garcia in the same neighborhood as Drabek. these are the 'sour' rankings that I found in 5 minutes.

.


The problem is that kab21 is arguing that Drabek is the better MLB prospect. The list is intended for fantasy. If Garcia is half the pitcher Drabek is, he will likely have better fantasy seasons. NL vs. AL east and St. Louis has arguably the best pitching coach in the game. Look what he did with Pineiro.
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