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FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby XTSilver » Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:27 am

Two of my buddies run this site and just published their rankings for the top 50 prospects of 2010. Any thoughts?

http://www.fantasysportspost.com/prospe ... p?rankid=5
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby kab21 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:51 pm

Montero and 20 HR power?

I honestly have no idea what they are thinking with these rankings and i stopped writing them down at #28.

#17 Desmond
#18 Sizemore
#19 EY Jr
#22 wilkin Ramirez
#26 Poreda
#28 Maloney

Huh?
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby MasterX1918 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 4:34 pm

XTSilver wrote:Two of my buddies run this site and just published their rankings for the top 50 prospects of 2010. Any thoughts?

http://www.fantasysportspost.com/prospe ... p?rankid=5

Bumgarner #3 is a stretch, but no biggie
Bryce Harper shouldn't be on this list at all until he gets drafted
Desmond, Young, Poreda and Sizemore waaay too high---shouldn't be in the top 50 at all
Wilkin Ramirez? huh?
Santana and Ackley too low
Not sure if Maloney qualifies
Streiby? ok, they're obviously Tigers fans,
Martin Perez too low
Zach McCallister?
Where's Starlin Castro? Aaron Hicks? Todd Frazier? Alcides Escobar? Freeman and Morrison don't make the top 50 but Manny Banuelos does? No Lyles, Grant Green or mention of Montgomery.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby littlebilly3 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:39 pm

Logan Morrison stands out the most. So do freeman and frazier...
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:02 pm

I'll try and address each point i've seen so far:

Alcides Escobar does not qualify, I"ll have to add the graduates to the site.
Desmond and Sizemore have guaranteed starting spots, and will provide at worst average Fantasy League production in their positions, depending on the size of the league. How many othe guys can you name that can say that.
Poreda and Maloney may not be the best pitching prospects in baseball, but both of them should have starting rotation spots come April, and if you haven't read the write-ups on each player, you should. They aren't high-upside guys (at least not anymore), but they also come with less risks than their counterparts.
Aaron Hicks is terrible. Even if he does improve upon his power in the 4 years it'll take him to reach the majors, he's still a 10-15 homer, 10-15 steal guy in the outfield. He batted .250 in A ball. He has a looooong way to go. I'm not saying he can't make the list someday, but he certainly doens't belong their this year.
Starlin Castro- How big are your guys leagues? 20 teams? My main league is a 14-team league with 4 rookies, and even when this guy is ready to play, he'd be a last round rookie pick, or a 20th round draft pick. He's also at least 2 years away. I can find 100 guys better than that.
Todd Frazier- I remember looking at the guy, certainly the best suggestion yet. He needs at least one more year, but so do a lot of prospects. He's a lot more valuable as a SS then he is as an outfielder. And he currently has no where to play. I'd take Chris Heisey over him right now, and he also didn't make the cut. (though i certainly could understand people questioning him not making it).
Freddie Freeman - Let's put this one to rest. Freeman made the tail end of my 2009 list. I know he was injured last year, but he was still pretty bad. As a first basemen, he has to be a monster to have fantasy value. There are always 20+ 1B's with 20+ homer power, etc. Right now, he's not that. And the days of guys roiding to get that way are over. The standards will certainly drop, but he has something to prove this year. He will be on the list with a strong showing next year. I'd rather have the 50 guys i had on the list, and most of the next 7.
Logan Morrison - He was on my list that past two seasons. He's also sucked the past two years. Yeah he's basically guaranteed the spot when he's ready, but his power has been terrible, he has no speed, and he's a first baseman. Where are you going to play him? And when will he be an effective fantasy player, 2013?
Manny Banuelos - Martin Perez is a top 10 prospect in some people's eyes. Certainly he'll have a much easier time making the majors than Banuelos. In every other way, they are essentially proving to be similarly talented pitchers. I am not a Yankees homer. The kid was awesome last year. He could play his way out of the list with a bad showing next year, but i doubt he will.
Grant Green- I'm beginning to notice a trend with your complaints, apparently 5-10 homer middle infielders with marginal speed are awesome fantasy prospects now. I looked at Green.. his bat is solid. He will be a solid major league hitter. But he doesn't even have Dustin Ackley pop, and his speed is marginal as well. He's still 2 years away. I don't want him, not over that top 50, or the next 7. He will probably play his way onto the list when he finally tackles AAA and he's guaranteed a roster spot, but he's not worth it right now.
Jordan Lyles - Let's see him play somewhere before we consider him a top 50 prospect. Apparently 37 guys in his draft class had more talent. I need more to go on besides someone said he's really talented.
Wilkin Ramirez - Go look at his numbers. Go read a scouting report. ANd he's ready now, and he has an open spot in the majors. What don't you like?

The next poster Basically bashes every major league ready player that wasn't a top prospect talent at 18. The list is about Fantasy value. I'll say this once, because it gets old.


Fantasy Baseball Rookies 101: The longer you hold rookies on your roster, the less valuable they are to you. For example, a guy in our league drafted Justin Upton at 16. Two years before he got drafted in the majors. He held him for 5 seasons, and now he's finally promoting him this season. Well Justin Upton is awesome, I'd love to have him on my rookie team, but he also was unable to improve his team with that rookie slot for 5 seasons because of it. That's 4 other players that could have given him value for 4 different fantasy seasons. Certainly, you all would agree that he's more valuable if he was able to somehow draft him as a rookie this year and promote him in one season. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't sometime reach for the star on a Bryce Harper, or a Justin Upton, or Ken Griffey, or A-Rod. But a balanced rookie portolio would also include guys who could help you now, so that you can continue to win every year. Desmond, Sizmore, EY, Poreda, and Maloney could all replace major league draft picks, depending on the size of your league. Drew Storen could be a closer for your team this season. He's definitely not the most talented pitcher out there, but he has a ton of value, that you're missing out on if you're always taking guys 3 years away. The other thing about major league ready talent is just that, it's major league ready talent. They are typically at the point where they've figured out their problems, they are much less of an injury risk, and you have enough data on the player to defintively know what you're going to get. Obviously, you can't always draft major league ready talent either, or you'll have no major league keeper-worthy players in 5 years, unless you are a cunning trader. But it is that happy medium between current value and future projection/risk that is supposed to be shown by this list. It is supposed to answer the question, assuming you have nothing to start with, and everyone ahead of you on the rankings is gone, who should you draft next. I think we've done a fairly good job of showing that.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby J35J » Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:12 pm

Looks like this is more of a rookie list for this year only then, by your explanations, correct? You pretty much don't like anyone that won't be up this year?

Not saying that is right or wrong but it will help in knowing what you are ranking for and what you aren't. So this is a best prospects list for '10 and anyone not going to contribute in '10 isn't considered?
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby MasterX1918 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:43 pm

you're overvaluing players who will be with teams this year, so in essence not much of a prospect list. I can respect it as a list for just 2010 but past that...not so much
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby mblax10 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:59 pm

XTSilver wrote:Two of my buddies run this site and just published their rankings for the top 50 prospects of 2010. Any thoughts?


You should play in more leagues with them.

I'm going to try and say this as nicely as I can because you obviously put some effort into your site. A lot of your assessments/statements are just way off. I picked out the most egregious ones. I get it, your league's minor league rosters are very shallow and it's making you're future value vs. present vale decisions terrible. That's not the case for 95% of leagues with minor league rosters.

TheBakester66 wrote:Alcides Escobar does not qualify, I"ll have to add the graduates to the site.

According to who? He's eligible for the ROY this season.

TheBakester66 wrote:Poreda and Maloney may not be the best pitching prospects in baseball, but both of them should have starting rotation spots come April, and if you haven't read the write-ups on each player, you should. They aren't high-upside guys (at least not anymore), but they also come with less risks than their counterparts.

Both of them are far from solid bets to make the rotation. How is Poreda and his inflated BB rate low risk?

TheBakester66 wrote:Aaron Hicks is terrible.

Pretty much every scout in baseball would disagree with you. You should probably consider age relative to league, and park/league factors instead of just looking at raw numbers. Also take your own advice and read a scouting report.

TheBakester66 wrote:Todd Frazier- I'd take Chris Heisey over him right now


Wow, just wow.
TheBakester66 wrote:Jordan Lyles - Let's see him play somewhere before we consider him a top 50 prospect. Apparently 37 guys in his draft class had more talent. I need more to go on besides someone said he's really talented.


200 IP of pro ball doesn't count as playing somewhere? If you think the guy drafted
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:09 pm

MBLAX10:

Escobar has 129 prior ABs, I use 100 ABs as the cutoff. The rookie cutoff used to be 100 ABs and that has always been a clean way of drawing the line. It's certainly worth considering changing. Obviously, Escobar would be fairly high up on the list if he were elligible.

As for our rookie roster elligibility, In most cases, if guys as ready as Desmond or Sizemore were available for your drafts, they would be drafted highly, because you could help your team immediately with the pick and replace that pick the following season.

For Poreda and Maloney:

Well, San Diego just signed Jon Garland, so you can essentially throw out Poreda's chances. Unless he completely outpitches Richard or Latos. You highlighted the biggest concern with Poreda. If he cannot get his control in line, he'll be 26 before he gets his start in the majors, or he'll pitch in the majors and just be a lower strikeout version of Gio Gonzalez.

Maloney is dependant upon the impending Harang deal to have a guaranteed spot. With Harang out of the picture, Cueto, Arroyo, and Bailey have spots, Volquez wil be back in August, and it's up to Owings and Maloney to duke it out for the 5th spot. It's a battle i think Maloney can win.

On Aaron Hicks:

Let's let the scouts prove me wrong. They've been wrong plenty of times in the past. Tim Beckham and Matt Bush are awesome. I know that's not really fair because Bush was never supposed to be that good offensively and Beckham is a tools guy that hasn't yet developed, but you get my point. Where is this power from Aaron Hicks going to come from? Tools are great, but the numbers say he's not. His speed certainly looks solid at this point (though his 8 CS in 18 attempts in A ball is pretty bad), but he's still fairly overrated in my book.

On scouting alone he belongs in the Sorry you didn't make it category, as he's really not that much different than Tim Beckham (position aside), but I certainly wouldn't waste a pick on him until the later prospect rounds. Put it this way, by the time I was interested in drafting Hicks, someone who believes the Scouting Reports will have already drafted him.

Now let me eat my words a little:

On Frazier versus Heisey.

Frazier certainly looks like a better prospect on paper. His size, his scouting reports, draft position, etc. He still hasn't put together a season near Heiseys. Heisey has two 20+ sb seasons, and has been caught stealing a total of 5 times in the past two seasons, compared to 53 steals. That's not only legit speed, but knowing how to use it effectively in A+,AA, and AAA. That compared to Heisey's 14 caught stealing in compared to 19 steals in the past two years. Heisey is also currently the projected starter for Cinci. Frazier will end up competing for the same spot that heisey holds. Frazier has already had a very slow progression to the majors. Frazier has shown 20 homer pop for two seasons in a row. Heisey only one, though he did do it in half a season of AAA. Frazier's overall bat just looks better than Heisey's. In the end, you're comparing a 12-15 homer, 20+ steal guy in Heisey to a 20 homer, 5-10 steal guy in Frazier. The batting average is a good 20 points in Frazier's favor. Their fairly comparible developmentally at this point, considering Frazier is still a year behind in age and level.

Jordan Lyles:

You know, you rank 250 guys statistically based on 5X5 categories, laegue difficulty, and age, and somehow you miss a guy like Jordan Lyles. I have 600,000 stat records dating back to 1903 in my database, and minor league numbers going back to the mid-70s, and somehow I missed this guy. Great numbers, somewhere between Perez and Freidrich in talent. I definitely like him, I'll find a spot for him on the list.
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Re: FSPOST Top 50 Prospects

Postby TheBakester66 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 12:01 am

J35J wrote:Looks like this is more of a rookie list for this year only then, by your explanations, correct? You pretty much don't like anyone that won't be up this year?

Not saying that is right or wrong but it will help in knowing what you are ranking for and what you aren't. So this is a best prospects list for '10 and anyone not going to contribute in '10 isn't considered?


Did you actually read the rankings? 90% of the players most likely will not be major league contributors this season. That said, many are guaranteed spots in 2011, or should be nearly full-timers by then. I just value a guy who can give you immediate returns over a guy who's going to take you 4 years to possibly give you slightly better returns, but also may give you slightly worse returns. If the upside is so high that there really will be no comparison in a year, or maybe even two, then he'll be rated higher. It does depend on your format as well.
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