I have just finished tweaking my rankings a little bit and think I have a good list of my overall top 300. Beforehand I would like to explain how I do my rankings. This will sound VERY nerdy but first I do as much research about every player as possible, looking at their statistical trends, projecting what role they will play (batting order/bullpen roles ect.) If new information comes out (i.e. Bay just signed with the Mets, Cliff Lee now calls Safeco and one of the best defenses in baseball his own or Travis Hafner is still having pain in his shoulder, ect.) I modify the projections. I tinker with them pretty much until my draft. I usually only do 1 league per year to put all my focus into that one team. These list will likely look different in March when its time to draft.
Anyways, the formula I have is simple but it works. I have been using it for the past six years and I've got 4 championships, a 6th place finish and a 12th place finish. It goes like this: I reward all hitters 20 points per home run, 10 points per stolen base, and 5 points per run & rbi. For batting average I have a system i.e. batters I project with 400 PA or more get 1,000 points if they hit .350 or better. 900 points if they hit .330-.349 and so on and so on until I get to 100 points for an average of .240 and below. I also have a system for average with players 399 PA or less.
For pitchers I reward 40 points per win, 20 per save, 3 per strikeout. I also have a system for ERA and WHIP like I use for hitters batting average. Relief pitchers and starting pitchers have a diffeent formula for ERA and WHIP. I then adjust pitchers totals vs. hitters totals, for example Linecum comes out the points leader but there is no way I take him no.1 overall. I also will reward a few "bonus" points to catchers and middle infielders. The only thing for me hard to project is wins. Lets say Sabathia Greinke are equal in talent. I would project CC to have a few more wins because he plays on the Yankees and not the Royals.
The Top 300 Overall:
1 Pujols, Albert 2 Ramirez, Hanley 3 Braun, Ryan 4 Utley, Chase 5 Rodriguez, Alex 6 Holliday, Matt 7 Fielder, Prince 8 Teixeria, Mark 9 Cabrera, Miguel 10 Lincecum, Tim 11 Longoria, Evan 12 Wright, David 13 Kemp, Matt 14 Howard, Ryan 15 Mauer, Joe 16 Hernandez, Felix 17 Halladay, Roy 18 Kinsler, Ian 19 Crawford, Carl 20 Sizemore, Grady 21 Tulowitzki, Troy 22 Jeter, Derek 23 Reyes, Jose 24 Greinke, Zach 25 Rollins, Jimmy 26 Votto, Joey 27 Gonzalez, Adrian 28 Reynolds, Mark 29 Sabathia, CC 30 Verlander, Justin 31 Haren, Dan 32 Lee, Cliff 33 Santana, Johan 34 Bay, Jason 35 Upton, Justin 36 Ellsbury, Jacoby 37 Upton, BJ 38 Cruz, Nelson 39 Morneau, Justin 40 Berkman, Lance 41 Martinez, Victor 42 Sandoval, Pablo 43 Suzuki, Ichiro 44 Beltran, Carlos 45 Nathan, Joe 46 Beckett, Josh 47 Johnson, Josh 48 Wainwright, Adam 49 Carpenter, Chris 50 Hamilton, Josh 51 Ramirez, Manny 52 Lee, Carlos 53 Werth, Jayson 54 Markakis, Nick 55 Abreu, Bobby 56 Zimmerman, Ryan 57 Pedroia, Dustin 58 Lester, Jon 59 Rivera, Mariano 60 Hamels, Cole 61 Roberts, Brian 62 Phillips, Brandon 63 Lind, Adam 64 Butler, Billy 65 Gallardo, Yovani 66 Kershaw, Clayton 67 Jimenez, Ubaldo 68 Youkilis, Kevin 69 Cano, Robinson 70 Papelbon, Jonathon 71 Broxton, Jonathon 72 Soria, Joakim 73 Ramirez, Aramis 74 Young, Michael 75 Granderson, Curtis 76 Either, Andre 77 Quentin, Carlos 78 Danks, John 79 Peavy, Jake 80 Nolasco, Rickey 81 Cain, Matt 82 Hanson, Tommy 83 Soriano, Rafael 84 Bailey, Andrew 85 Span, Denard 86 Choo, Shin-Soo 87 Hunter, Torri 88 Pence, Hunter 89 Billingsley, Chad 90 Lackey, John 91 Webb, Brandon 92 Bell, Heath 93 Rodriguez, Francisco 94 McCann, Brian 95 McCutchen, Andrew 96 Victorino, Shane 97 Bourn, Michael 98 Morales, Kendry 99 Floyd, Gavin 100 Jurrjens, Jair 101 Dunn, Adam 102 Morgan, Nyger 103 Rodriguez, Wandy 104 Weaver, Jered 105 Baker, Scott 106 Anderson, Brett 107 Street, Huston 108 Lee, Derrek 109 Zobrist, Ben 110 Damon, Johnny 111 Oswalt, Roy 112 Garza, Matt 113 Burnett, A.J. 114 Vazquez, Javier 115 Wieters, Matt 116 Gonzalez, Mike 117 Valverde, Jose 118 Kubel, Jason 119 Ibanez, Rual 120 McLouth, Nate 121 Ramirez, Alexi 122 Cabrera, Asdrubal 123 Hill, Aaron 124 Zambrano, Carlos 125 Dempster, Ryan 126 Lilly, Ted 127 Scherzer, Max 128 Hoffman, Trevor 129 Wilson, Brian 130 Harden, Rich 131 Shields, James 132 Kazmir, Scott 133 Jenks, Bobby 134 Fuentes, Brian 135 Cordero, Francisco 136 Jones, Chipper 137 Figgins, Chone 137 Guerrero, Vladimir 138 Soriano, Alfonso 139 Marmol, Carlos 140 Wagner, Billy 141 Stewart, Ian 142 Ludwick, Ryan 143 Jones, Adam 144 Dye, Jermaine 145 Borbon, Julio 146 LaRoche, Adam 147 Tejada, Miguel 148 De La Rosa, Jorge 149 Wolf, Randy 150 Price, David 151 Hawpe, Brad 152 Andrus, Elvis 153 Lopez, Jose 154 Pena, Carlos 155 Buehrle, Mark 156 Chamberlain, Joba 157 Bucholtz, Clay 158 Aardsma, David 159 Nunez, Leo 160 Francisco, Frank 161 Wood, Kerry 162 Uggla, Dan 163 Matsui, Hideki 164 Loney, James 165 Cantu, Jorge 166 Helton, Todd 167 Kendrick, Howie 168 Escobar, Yunel 169 Aybar, Erick 170 Bartlett, Jason 171 Davis, Rajai 172 Rivera, Juan 173 Drew, J.D. 174 Montero, Miguel 175 Sanchez, Jonathon 176 Jackson, Edwin 177 Niemann, Jeff 178 Richard, Clayton 179 Qualls, Chad 180 Beckham, Gordon 181 Pierre, Juan 182 Drew, Stephen 183 Posada, Jorge 184 Bruce, Jay 185 Ordonez, Maggilo 186 Liriano, Francisco 187 Sheets, Ben 188 Gutierrez, Franklin 189 Ross, Cody 190 Hart, Corey 191 Rios, Alex 192 Wells, Vernon 193 Beltre, Adrian 194 Bedard, Erik 195 Harang, Aaron 196 Franklin, Ryan 197 Downs, Scott 198 Coghlan, Chris 199 Cuddyer, Michael 200 Porcello, Rick 201 Hudson, Tim 202 Maybin, Cameron 203 Milledge, Lastings 204 Arroyo, Bronson 205 Happ, J.A. 206 Zito, Barry 207 Pettitte, Andy 208 Young, Chris B. 209 Davis, Wade 210 Morrow, Brandon 211 Konerko, Paul 212 DeRosa, Mark 213 Weeks, Rickie 214 Scutaro, Marco 215 Suzuki, Kurt 216 Dukes, Elijah 217 Capps, Matt 218 Bradley, Milton 219 Murphy, David 220 Cameron, Mike 221 DeJesus, David 222 Myers, Brett 223 Maine, John 224 Lannan, John 225 Kawakami, Kenshin 226 Cueto, Johnny 227 Teahen, Mark 228 Napoli, Mike 229 Kouzmanoff, Kevin 230 McGehee, Casey 231 Rowland-Smith, Ryan 232 Bergesen, Brad 233 Hanrahan, Joel 234 Bumgarner, Madison 235 Davis, Chris 236 Ortiz, David 237 Feliz, Neftali 238 Slowey, Kevin 239 Strasburg, Stephen 240 LaPorta, Matt 241 Snider, Travis 242 Taylor, Michael 243 Heyward, Jayson 244 Guillen, Carlos 245 Delgado, Carlos 246 Polanco, Placido 247 Rolen, Scott 248 Peralta, Jhonny 249 Furcal, Rafael 250 Brantley, Michael 251 Fowler, Dexter 252 Lidge, Brad 253 Zumaya, Joel 254 Gonzalez, Carlos 255 Hudson, Orlando 256 Hafner, Travis 257 Johnson, Nick 258 Swisher, Nick 259 Escobar, Alcides 260 Soto, Geovany 261 Doumit, Ryan 262 Jackson, Austin 263 Wallace, Brett 264 Ramus, Cody 265 Atkins, Garrett 266 Martinez, Russell 267 Blalock, Hank 268 Para, Manny 269 Posey, Buster 270 Wood, Brandon 271 Duchscherer, Justin 272 Smith, Seth 273 Willingham, Josh 274 Martinez, Pedro 275 Braden, Dallas 276 Diaz, Matt 277 Francouer, Jeff 278 Cust, Jack 279 Molina, Bengie 280 Blake, Casey 281 Winn, Randy 282 Huff, Aubrey 283 Madson, Ryan 284 Thome, Jim 285 Shumaker, Skip 286 Lowell, Mike 287 Masterson, Justin 288 Smoltz, John 289 Matsuzaka, Daisuke 290 Branyan, Russell 291 Hairston, Scott 292 Lopez, Felipe 293 Jones, Garrett 294 Swisher, Nick 295 Pierzynski, A.J. 296 Barmes, Clint 297 Cahill, Trevor 298 Blanton, Joe 299 Carmona, Fausto 300 Hardy, J.J.
94 McCann, Brian 98 Morales, Kendry - Is there that much of a difference between him and Morneau or Berkman? 123 Hill, Aaron 137 Figgins, Chone 174 Montero, Miguel - you really aren't a fan of his are you? 180 Beckham, Gordon - I do have a feeling that he will be overdrafted next year but this is too low 184 Bruce, Jay 251 Fowler, Dexter - I do like McCutchen more than fowler but there isn't a 150 ranking difference 259 Escobar, Alcides - .280+ with 30-40SB's at SS at 259 260 Soto, Geovany - he's going to have a nice bounceback season imo 294 Swisher, Nick - he's listed twice actually
this is a start of the guys that I think are too low
I agree with all of Kab's list of too low. Hill at 123 makes my inner jays fan cry. I'm going to nit pick by my gut.
Some I think are too high:
6 Holliday, Matt - mentioned this in your hitters thread, wouldn't take him over kemp, crawford. 22 Jeter, Derek - he would have to repeat to put up this value. i'd wait 20 more picks. 45 Nathan, Joe - 26 picks ahead of Broxton isn't right. 83 Soriano, Rafael - injury risk and AL east make him too risky to take this early.
109 Zobrist, Ben - i would jump for joy if i got him this late. 141 Stewart, Ian - too much upside at 2b/3b to let him slip this far. 160 Francisco, Frank - injury prone but when healthy he's a stud. 170 Bartlett, Jason - he won't repeat last year but i'd take him over andrus. 240 LaPorta, Matt - upside would make me rank him 50 picks higher. 241 Snider, Travis - ditto 254 Gonzalez, Carlos - ditto 264 Ramus, Cody - Colby Rasmus I assume, ditto on the upside. I like me some young stud hitters. 293 Jones, Garrett - not a believer but you have to admit he can get really hot.
Thanks for sharing!
Here's the pitch on the way, a swing and a belt! Left field! Way back! BLUE JAYS WIN!
age doesn't seem to worry you much: Jeter, M Young & Abreu all seem like they could have trouble earning those rankings to me. Wondering what kind of a B AVG you project for Cruz to get him that high? A's among the leaders in save opportunities this year?(Bailey 84)? I guess you like closers with 9 in the top 93 No love for Adam Jones(143) or S Drew(183); lotsa love for Span(85) how does he earn a top 100?
Nice list overall, solid effort. I agree with some of the other posters about certain players (Montero at 174 is criminal). What stands out to me most is B.J. Upton at 37th (is anyone ready to invest a 3rd round pick on a guy who was such a big bust last year?), Billy Butler at 64 above guys like Ubaldo, Kershaw, Youk, Cano, and slotting Shin Soo-Choo a round and a half higher than Kendry Morales.