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Bay Signs w/Mets?

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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby AKhomebrewer » Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:38 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Didn't Bay say a few weeks ago that he'd rather play in Beirut than Queens?

Beirut offered only $35 million for 3 years.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby Philliebuster » Wed Dec 30, 2009 11:24 pm

I don't think there is any way fantasy value can go up switching from the middle of the Boston lineup in Fenway to the middle of the Mets lineup in Citi.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby kab21 » Thu Dec 31, 2009 12:05 am

Citi Field had a park factor of 98 so it is hardly Petco East. Part of the reason for this misconception is that every Met last year had a terrible. But they sucked almost equally bad both at home and on the road. Fun fact - Did you know that the Met's and their opponents actually hit more HR's at home than when they were on the road.

So yes I do think that Bay can earn his contract by OPS'ing .900. At least early in his contract he can. The big risk for the Mets is injury or age related decline late in the contract with very little upside. But this is true of nearly every big FA signing. but if i were the Mets I probably would have gone after a cheaper OF'er since this isn't the move that puts them near the top. And johnny damon would be fine in LF at Citi field.

edit - I did forget to mention that he moves from the AL East where his opposing pitchers held batters to a .467 OPS but unfortunately he will still have to face Halladay so he won't see any benefit from that move.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby DaSh 1s » Thu Dec 31, 2009 12:54 pm

kab21 wrote:Citi Field had a park factor of 98 so it is hardly Petco East. Part of the reason for this misconception is that every Met last year had a terrible. But they sucked almost equally bad both at home and on the road. Fun fact - Did you know that the Met's and their opponents actually hit more HR's at home than when they were on the road.


Every Met was terrible and the big guns were injured, so your right its hard to base it off that lineup. The only reason this whole Citi Park myth emerged is from that movie "The Curious Case of David Wright"
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:43 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
kab21 wrote:Citi Field had a park factor of 98 so it is hardly Petco East. Part of the reason for this misconception is that every Met last year had a terrible. But they sucked almost equally bad both at home and on the road. Fun fact - Did you know that the Met's and their opponents actually hit more HR's at home than when they were on the road.


Every Met was terrible and the big guns were injured, so your right its hard to base it off that lineup. The only reason this whole Citi Park myth emerged is from that movie "The Curious Case of David Wright"

Citi Field.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:12 pm

kab21 wrote:Citi Field had a park factor of 98 so it is hardly Petco East. Part of the reason for this misconception is that every Met last year had a terrible. But they sucked almost equally bad both at home and on the road. Fun fact - Did you know that the Met's and their opponents actually hit more HR's at home than when they were on the road.

So yes I do think that Bay can earn his contract by OPS'ing .900. At least early in his contract he can. The big risk for the Mets is injury or age related decline late in the contract with very little upside. But this is true of nearly every big FA signing. but if i were the Mets I probably would have gone after a cheaper OF'er since this isn't the move that puts them near the top. And johnny damon would be fine in LF at Citi field.

edit - I did forget to mention that he moves from the AL East where his opposing pitchers held batters to a .467 OPS

He'd have to OPS 1.000 to make up for his defense and earn that $18 mil/year average.

kab21 wrote: but unfortunately he will still have to face Halladay so he won't see any benefit from that move.

lol
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby StlSluggers » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:56 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:
kab21 wrote:Citi Field had a park factor of 98 so it is hardly Petco East. Part of the reason for this misconception is that every Met last year had a terrible. But they sucked almost equally bad both at home and on the road. Fun fact - Did you know that the Met's and their opponents actually hit more HR's at home than when they were on the road.


Every Met was terrible and the big guns were injured, so your right its hard to base it off that lineup. The only reason this whole Citi Park myth emerged is from that movie "The Curious Case of David Wright"

Citi Field.

That's a myth.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby fang » Thu Dec 31, 2009 10:43 pm

I still don't understand what makes people want Holliday over Bay. Holliday in citi = David Wright last year. Holliday couldn't hit in The Coliseum, what makes you think he can hit here?
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:06 pm

fang wrote:I still don't understand what makes people want Holliday over Bay. Holliday in citi = David Wright last year. Holliday couldn't hit in The Coliseum, what makes you think he can hit here?

Bay is consistently a bottom of the barrel defensive OF. Because of this wide difference in defensive ability, Holliday's 93 games as an Athletic (3.0 WARP) were almost as valuable as Bay's entire 2009 season (3.5 WARP), and more than Bay's 2008 season (2.9 WARP). Moving Bay from Fenway (and the fielder-friendly Green Monster) to Citi is like moving Adam Dunn to CF; with that spacious field, there's a ton of room to run terrible routes and misjudge fly balls.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby fang » Fri Jan 01, 2010 1:59 am

Beltran may be getting old, but he can still cover a lot of ground out there. Just have him shade closer to LF and it won't make up for all of it, but it will make up for some of the ground that he can't cover out there. And I wish we would play Pagan out in RF and throw Francoeur over at 1B. Therefore the whole OF can shift towards LF and still cover a lot of ground.
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