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Bay Signs w/Mets?

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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Dec 29, 2009 9:00 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:5/80 for Bay would steer this one towards really questionable, not like Bay could've gotten anything better from anyone else. At that point, it starts to become why didn't the Mets just get Holliday, he won't be that much more of an investment.

It's. The. Mets. I know it's winter, so we're a few months removed from the horror that is most seasons, but come join me on the island of despair. There's room. 80 Wins, here we come. At least it'll be 10 more than last year.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby JTWood » Tue Dec 29, 2009 9:26 pm

fang wrote:Lee will be fine in SafeCo is right, and from a Mets fan, this is really the only thing we could do to improve the offense other than Holliday, but he already had less power than Bay, it would be like Holliday as an A all over again.

Now we just need to get Joel Pineiro and hopefully we have something to get Zambrano, who could most likely be had, but it would dramatically drain the farm and it would have to be built up again. Harang can plant his tush in a Reds uni, I don't want him anywhere near this Mets team when we're not playing the Reds.

You'd rather have a reclamation project in Pineiro who might not work out when he's away from his mentor instead of a workhorse like Harang whose fly ball tendencies would work really well in that spacious park? I mean, if there's a significant price difference, maybe that makes sense, but on an even playing field, I'd take Harang in Citi over Piniero away from Duncan.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby Grounded Polo » Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:18 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:5/80 for Bay would steer this one towards really questionable, not like Bay could've gotten anything better from anyone else. At that point, it starts to become why didn't the Mets just get Holliday, he won't be that much more of an investment.

It's. The. Mets. I know it's winter, so we're a few months removed from the horror that is most seasons, but come join me on the island of despair. There's room. 80 Wins, here we come. At least it'll be 10 more than last year.


Ask me for my thoughts on the Mets on Monday after the Jets choke, I'm still on a bit of a sports high after the Jets beat the Colts (winning's winning). I'll be ready to return back to despair.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:19 am

Would have preferred Holliday, but Bay will do just fine. The Mets desperately needed one of them, even if they had to overpay a bit, which I expected would happen.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:23 am

bigh0rt wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:I'm not surprised, the Mets usually get their man of the FA market.

Manny Ramirez. Vladimir Guerrero. Alex Rodriguez. What Mets team have you been rooting for? :-S :-b

They were finally able to pull a trigger on Beltran and Pedro, but the number of guys the Mets ought to have signed (and were capable of) far outweighs those they have.


But the players that the Mets "ought to have signed" is very different from those that they actually pursued. They really didn't go after Manny, Vlad, or ARod. I can't think of many that they went for and didn't get.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:38 am

rookies and cream wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:I'm not surprised, the Mets usually get their man of the FA market.

Manny Ramirez. Vladimir Guerrero. Alex Rodriguez. What Mets team have you been rooting for? :-S :-b

They were finally able to pull a trigger on Beltran and Pedro, but the number of guys the Mets ought to have signed (and were capable of) far outweighs those they have.


But the players that the Mets "ought to have signed" is very different from those that they actually pursued. They really didn't go after Manny, Vlad, or ARod. I can't think of many that they went for and didn't get.

Yes, and it was ridiculous that they didn't pursue three of the best players in recent memory. They were too busy paying off Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, etc.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby thedude » Wed Dec 30, 2009 1:24 am

bigh0rt wrote:
rookies and cream wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:Manny Ramirez. Vladimir Guerrero. Alex Rodriguez. What Mets team have you been rooting for? :-S :-b

They were finally able to pull a trigger on Beltran and Pedro, but the number of guys the Mets ought to have signed (and were capable of) far outweighs those they have.


But the players that the Mets "ought to have signed" is very different from those that they actually pursued. They really didn't go after Manny, Vlad, or ARod. I can't think of many that they went for and didn't get.

Yes, and it was ridiculous that they didn't pursue three of the best players in recent memory. They were too busy paying off Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, etc.



Yeah but if it had been 1995 when they got Mo and Roberto they would not have needed Vlad, Manny or A-Rod. :-b
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby DaSh 1s » Wed Dec 30, 2009 11:08 am

rookies and cream wrote:Would have preferred Holliday, but Bay will do just fine. The Mets desperately needed one of them, even if they had to overpay a bit, which I expected would happen.


It not the fact that Bay "will do just fine", you have to look at this contract that gave to him as opposed to having Holliday. The Mets are committing $16.5M to have Jason Bay's 31, 32, 33, and 34 year old seasons. His main value is his offense, and that value has taken a immense hit due to poor defense in his 28, 29, and 30 year old seasons. There was barely any interest in him this off-season.

Not only are they over-paying, they are over-paying with complete knowledge that both his offense and defense will likely play worsein their new stadium than it did with his previous team.

And now when you factor in the easy vesting 5th year, I mean just how productive is Bay's offense going to have to be, to make up for his Defense at the age of 35. Non the less a giant LF.

Is he better than Sheffield, Tatis, or Murphy? Without a doubt. But was it worth $16.5M?

This is where I start to question Omar, as Holliday could have been had for not that much more, and will be significantly younger and is a above average defender. Not a fan of this signing at all. Omar will get the praise for making a FA splash, but this contract is ugly and this isn't the type of player the Mets need to be successful in Citifield.

If Bay finishes the season at .265/25 HR/90BB/160 SO/-11 UZR/150, do you think that would merit 16.5 a year? If not Holliday, why not just save the money and land a stud pitcher next year behind Johan? Bad player for the Mets to break bank for :-t
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby kab21 » Wed Dec 30, 2009 3:29 pm

I don't really care what Bay's BA, K's or HR's are. I think Bay still posts a .900 OPS in the horrible Citi Field and that can make the deal not bad. The problem is that the deal will be hard to win for the Mets. Bay can earn his contract (imo) but can't really outproduce his contract (and make it a value). And there is downside to this contract where the Mets can lose (injury or age-related decline).

I'm going to also disagree that the money would have been better spent next offseason on a pitcher. 3 pitchers lead the market and all of them are likely to sign deals that will look questionable considering their age and/or injury history. It's kind of like the deal with Lackey (or previous deals with Lowe or Burnett). It's going to be tough to win any of those because you rarely get a good value when you are signing FA's, especially those that are in the top 5 that offseason. However I will say that the Mets might have been better off going after a guy like Damon or Cameron on a 2 yr deal and reducing the downside/length of the deal.
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Re: Bay Signs w/Mets?

Postby DaSh 1s » Wed Dec 30, 2009 4:32 pm

kab21 wrote:I don't really care what Bay's BA, K's or HR's are. I think Bay still posts a .900 OPS in the horrible Citi Field and that can make the deal not bad.


Bay finished last season with a .921 OPS and a .537 SLG percentage... Do you believe he is going to be able to replicate a .537 SLG at Citi and replicate? Or even maintain a OBP above 375 consistently for the next four years?


The problem is that the deal will be hard to win for the Mets. Bay can earn his contract (imo) but can't really outproduce his contract (and make it a value). And there is downside to this contract where the Mets can lose (injury or age-related decline).


How can Bay even begin to earn his contract when he is unable to play defense even at a mediocre level?

I'm going to also disagree that the money would have been better spent next offseason on a pitcher. 3 pitchers lead the market and all of them are likely to sign deals that will look questionable considering their age and/or injury history. It's kind of like the deal with Lackey (or previous deals with Lowe or Burnett). It's going to be tough to win any of those because you rarely get a good value when you are signing FA's, especially those that are in the top 5 that offseason.


While I agree with you its normally tough to win on a SP contract...unless Oliver Perez turns into a pitcher, Niese develops, or Pelfrey develops into a front of the rotation starter, they will constantly have crap behind Johan. Citi is a pitchers park, and they are spending 80 million on hitters instead of pitchers? I still think it would be better spent on pitching because they have none, and it suits their park better than a High K, SLG, Bad Defender for the ages of 31-35

However I will say that the Mets might have been better off going after a guy like Damon or Cameron on a 2 yr deal and reducing the downside/length of the deal.


Johnny Damon in Citi field 8-o
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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