Please review the league setup carefully, since it skews value of certain types or players a bit. In particular OPS, QS-L, and the fact that we start 5 starters and 3 relievers each week make a big difference. More importantly, we only keep 10 guys in this league and this deal while it may at first seem lopsided is a pure study on opportunity cost, so please see my initial keeper list below.
I've been offered his Carl Crawford, Rick Porcello, J.P. Arencibia, Michael Bowden, and Brad Lincoln for my Andre Ethier, Javier Vazquez, John Lackey, Michael Stanton, Dominic Brown, and Daniel Hudson
I probably wouldn't keep Porcello, but I likely wouldn't have kept Lackey either and I'll be able to keep Soria instead of Vazquez. After the trade to the Yanks, I probably wouldn't keep Vazquez. So basically the deal is, Ethier and the farm for Crawford. On the surface it seems like a no-brainer but my concerns are with Crawford. Since this is an OPS league, I'm worried that Crawford is not the late first round/ early second round talent we like to think of him as. I'm worried that the drop in power from Ethier to Crawford. Is Crawford an upgrade? Moreover, can we trust Crawford's knees? Sure he stole 60 last year, but 21 came in one month and he only had 16 SBs post ASB.
Offensive Categories: BA, OPS, RBI, HR, SB and Runs Scored. (Start: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF, UTIL) Pitching Categories: W, S, ERA, K/IP, Quality Starts minus Losses, and WHIP (Start: 5 SP, 3 RP) 6x6 weekly HtH 14 team roto keeper (between 5 and 10 keepers (no time limits or costs), losing a draft pick for each after 5)
My Keepers before the trade (and after): Adrian Gonzalez Aaron Hill Kevin Youkilis Andre Ethier (Carl Crawford) Adam Lind Adam Dunn Roy Halladay Jon Lester Javier Vazquez (Joakim Soria) Joe Nathan ----------------- Bobby Abreu Joakim Soria John Lackey Michael Young
Minor Leaguers (Keep 5): Michael Stanton, Dominic Brown, Daniel Hudson, Julio Borbon, Jaff Decker, Lonie Chisenhall, Marc Rzepczynski, and Jonathan Niese
There are a lot of extra guys thrown into this, but essentially it comes down to Ethier and Vazquez for Crawford, and even with your scoring system it's probably a 5th and a 6th round pick for a 1st/2nd. I wouldn't focus on losing 15 HRs, not when you already have Adrian, Hill, Lind, Dunn, and Youkilis in your lineup (none of whom steal bases, btw). You might want to reconsider keeping Soria, though. Nice undervalued closer, but you are already keeping Nathan. Of 10 keepers, 2 would be closers? I'd rather see you hang onto Abreu (30 more steals, nice Util choice). You can always pick up saves later.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - Albert Einstein
I agree that if the deal were Ethier and Vazquez for Crawford that it would pretty much be a no-brainer. However, minor leaguers can be pretty valuable in our league. We have 5 minor league spots and they are "free keepers" meaning that they don't cost a draft pick like our majors keepers do as long as they don't cross the 200 AB/ 75 IP threshold. I'm giving up a top 5 prospect in Stanton, a top 15 prospect in Brown, and a ML-ready "free" keeper in Hudson.
Thanks for your help, NY Knights... any other thoughts out there?
The guy is trying to sneak in Brown and Stanton, who are absolute beasts. I'm not in love with Hudson, but his minor league numbers are amazing and sometimes who don't appear to have great "stuff" somehow continue to put up fantastic numbers (e.g. Maddux)
Brad Lincoln and Bowden are worthless. They are middle relievers in the majors. They just don't have the arsenal of pitches to make it as valuable starters.
He's also selling high on Crawford. Crawford's entire value in this league is his legs, and he's hitting that age when speedsters start to lose that part of their value. Ethier made significant strides in his plate discipline and at 27 could still make further improvements in power. Crawford's value has likely peaked, while Ethier still has more value. And Mike Stanton is a machine who is likely going to get promoted this year.
If you can get Stanton/Brown and Hudson out of the package then it's more palatable to me. I'd go with Bourbon and Chisenhall as replacements for Stanton/Brown.
If not, I'd reject.
I'd also keep Porcello or Vazquez over Nathan. Closers are the easiest thing to find in-season.