Cream wrote:I hadn't looked into Gavin yet this off season, but you're post inspired me to do so. Looking at his splits he seemed to make some strides during the second half of the year (taken with a grain of salt). Quick follow-up question for anyone - Is there any concern with his home/away splits?
Huge on Gavin this year. Gr, and my friends know it, too. Gonna be hard to sit on this young buck.
He does have some crazy home/road splits though and I usually ignore home/road splits. But he had an 8.8 K/9 split at home vs 6.5 K/9 on the road. And this was true in '08 as well with 7.3 K/9 at home and 5.9 K/9 at home. I can understand having an ERA split if you're pitching in PetCo or something but this is bizarre.
Looking further into this shows a 7.5 K/9 to 6.5 K/9 home and away split for 2008 and 2009 for all Chicago pitchers (but no split difference for the 3 yrs before that). And it doesn't seem like the CHW hitters have any difference in K rate home/away. Bizarre.
Cream wrote:I hadn't looked into Gavin yet this off season, but you're post inspired me to do so. Looking at his splits he seemed to make some strides during the second half of the year (taken with a grain of salt). Quick follow-up question for anyone - Is there any concern with his home/away splits?
Huge on Gavin this year. Gr, and my friends know it, too. Gonna be hard to sit on this young buck.
He does have some crazy home/road splits though and I usually ignore home/road splits. But he had an 8.8 K/9 split at home vs 6.5 K/9 on the road. And this was true in '08 as well with 7.3 K/9 at home and 5.9 K/9 at home. I can understand having an ERA split if you're pitching in PetCo or something but this is bizarre.
Looking further into this shows a 7.5 K/9 to 6.5 K/9 home and away split for 2008 and 2009 for all Chicago pitchers (but no split difference for the 3 yrs before that). And it doesn't seem like the CHW hitters have any difference in K rate home/away. Bizarre.
Yeah, I saw those numbers too and didn't know what to make of them. He also has an increase in his BB/9 (decrease in SO/BB) from 2.27 at home to 3.17. His WHIP is also increased, but part of that is attributable to an increased BABIP on the road - .254 at home compared to .310 on the road. The BABIP home/away splits are consistent with prior years.
Cream wrote:I hadn't looked into Gavin yet this off season, but you're post inspired me to do so. Looking at his splits he seemed to make some strides during the second half of the year (taken with a grain of salt). Quick follow-up question for anyone - Is there any concern with his home/away splits?
Huge on Gavin this year. Gr, and my friends know it, too. Gonna be hard to sit on this young buck.
He does have some crazy home/road splits though and I usually ignore home/road splits. But he had an 8.8 K/9 split at home vs 6.5 K/9 on the road. And this was true in '08 as well with 7.3 K/9 at home and 5.9 K/9 at home. I can understand having an ERA split if you're pitching in PetCo or something but this is bizarre.
Looking further into this shows a 7.5 K/9 to 6.5 K/9 home and away split for 2008 and 2009 for all Chicago pitchers (but no split difference for the 3 yrs before that). And it doesn't seem like the CHW hitters have any difference in K rate home/away. Bizarre.
This is a bizarre split stats. I wonder if it could possibly be because of The Cell being a hitters park so the pitchers feel they need to miss more bats while at home but are able to pitch to contact more on the road? Either way I like the White Sox pitching staff a lot going into this year think they will be real tough.
Ian Snell needs to be moved way up everyone's draft list.
Yes, I realize he was horrible the last two years, but he was literally suicidal in Pittsburgh, his first game in AAA after begging himself out of Pittsburgh, he struck out 17 in 7 innings, including 13 in a row.
And yes, I realize he was also not good in Seattle last year after the trade, but with all the crap that went on with him in Pittsburgh, I think we can, if not give him a full pass for last year, at least excuse it somewhat.
He's still someone with great K numbers, and he doesn't give up many homers. He still walks a few too many people, but he was ahead of a laughably bad defense in Pittsburgh, and now he's in front of the best in Seattle.
I would not at all be surprised with a return to his 2007 numbers.
I can see Baker, Scherzer, BRett Anderson, and De La Rosa making the next big jump. I can see some serious regression due to ball park factors for Rich Harden, Vazquez, and Peavy. I am leery to take Gallardo, Webb, or Bedard due to injury concerns. I love Slowey as a sleeper if he falls out of the top-50 pitchers altogether.
Ian Snell needs to be moved way up everyone's draft list.
Yes, I realize he was horrible the last two years, but he was literally suicidal in Pittsburgh, his first game in AAA after begging himself out of Pittsburgh, he struck out 17 in 7 innings, including 13 in a row.
And yes, I realize he was also not good in Seattle last year after the trade, but with all the crap that went on with him in Pittsburgh, I think we can, if not give him a full pass for last year, at least excuse it somewhat.
He's still someone with great K numbers, and he doesn't give up many homers. He still walks a few too many people, but he was ahead of a laughably bad defense in Pittsburgh, and now he's in front of the best in Seattle.
I would not at all be surprised with a return to his 2007 numbers.
eh, his velocity has dropped the last 3 years and his BB rate has gone up each of the last 3 years. His FIP, xFIP, contact rates and first pitch strike % are all going the wrong direction. I think there is probably more of a chance he gets moved to the pen than him figuring things out....he just hasn't looked very good for a while now. Certainly he has solid raw stuff but, ugh. There really isn't anything that suggests he turns it around this year other than gut feeling, IMHO.
Curtis Pride wrote:Yeah, when you are depressed so much that you are suicidal, it can affect your performance.
I'm pretty sure J35J didn't kick your dog he just pointed out tangible evidence as to some of Snell's struggles. Lord knows it isn't possible at all that his depression was an effect of his poor pitching and not vice versa. If you want to bump him up your board on a "gut feeling," by all means do. If others don't, I'm fairly sure they shouldn't get snarky remarks spewn back upon them. I personally have no intention of moving Snell up my draft board until I see tangible evidence that he's returned to 2007 form.
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by kab21 » Sat Jan 02, 2010 12:42 pm 
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