Keeper league. 12 teams. 7 Keepers Scoring includes for hitters: R, H, 1b, 2b, 3b, HR, RBI, BB, SB, K, FPCT, AVG, OPS pitchers: IP, W, L, CG, SHO, SV's, H, HR's, BB's, K's , Holds, ERA, WHIP It is a head to head league. 6 teams make the playoffs with 2 byes
No 5th round pick as I traded it to another owner. Two 6th round picks as I acquired one from another owner and still own my own. Swap of last round picks in relation to dealing my 5th and acquiring the 6th rounder. (All post keepers so starting in round 8 really)
C- Brian McCann 1B- Albert Pujols 2B- Ian Kinsler 3B- Evan Longoria IF- Pablo Sandoval CF-Andrew McCutchen RF- Josh Hamilton Util- Gordon Beckham (3B and supposed to start at 2B this year)
SP- Chris Carpenter SP- Josh Johnson SP- Tommy Hanson
Trying to guage people's values of my potential keepers. For starters, I can't deal any non-keepers to package up. I must declare 7 keepers, at that point I can swap keepers for other keepers, picks, etc. No firm date set for keepers, usually happens about a month before the season or so.
Gordon Beckham's expected move to 2B is throwing me a bit of a curve ball. In a league that counts singles, doubles, triples, and hits with BA as well as BB's and K's a guy who accumulates a lot of hits is much more valuable then the typical "hollow BA" guy in a 5x5. Thus, my thinking is keeping Beckham and dealing Kinsler as he's a smidge less valuable in this format then a typical 5x5 (unless of course he trades in some of his FB's and HR's for LD's and hits again like in 2008).
Right now I'm planning on keeping: C- Brian McCann 1B- Albert Pujols 2B- Ian Kinsler 3B- Evan Longoria IF- Pablo Sandoval Util- Gordon Beckham
SP- Tommy Hanson
I'm giving almost no thought to keeping Hamilton as doing some further looking into his numbers there is a lot that I don't like (namely his decreasing contact rate and increasing outside zone and inside zone swing). I also have concerns about possible relapse, early skill deterioration due to drug use, and possible injury risk every year due to his long time drug use.
McCutchen also seems to be a long shot, but I think he's capable of being a good source of power/speed while also capable of racing up a ton of extra base hits... that said I think he can be re-drafted.
The toughest cuts for me are Johnson and Carpenter, more so Johnson given age. Both have a chance at being fantasy aces, and pairing one with Hanson gives me a strong rotation front. That said, I think I will be able to get Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez (who I also am not keeping) or others with my first round pick. My pick will be in the 9/10 area (haven't looked at everyone's post season and regular season finishes to figure it out exactly).
Before the announcement of Beckham moving to 2B I wasn't going to keep him and I was going to keep the other 5 hitters and Hanson/Johnson. With the announcement of Beckham moving to 2B he appears to be keeper gold. There is a great deal of interest in Kinsler, and my real plan is to keep the 6 hitters and Hanson and deal Kinsler for picks.
Judging the interest of a few owners I am of the belief I can deal Kinsler and a late pick (possibly a last round pick... maybe a little higher then that) for a 1st and 2nd round pick (post keeper so really 8th-9th round). That may not seem like great value, but there will be some very solid talent re-entering the draft as some teams possessed more talent then others so though there will be 84 players kept, they aren't necessarily the top 84.
Two first rounders and two second rounders give me a great deal of flexibility (my own plus what I'd acquire), and with Beckham already in place at 2B I won't have a gaping hole at 2B.
Anyways, trying to gather some insight and gauge outside value of my fringe keepers as it will likely make wheeling and dealing that much easier. Thanks in advance. Remember this is unique scoring, so please tailor your responses accordingly.
Pujols/Kinsler/Longoria/Sandoval i agree on. My other 3 are
Hamilton McCutchen Johnson
I know i won't sway you, but that's what i would do. I'm a huge Hamilton fan. I think healthy, he's the 08 Hamilton. He's working with Texas strengh and conditioning coach this off season, to address his past injuries. A few Rangers remarked before, outside of Pujols/Arod, Hamilton has the most given talent in MLB.
But let's forget Hamilton, you won't keep him.
J Johnson is a beast. Hanson is nice, but JJ has the more established track record.
Beckham is nice, but his oba is a bit low. I love McCutchen as a poor mans Kemp, 20/40 certaintly possible.
Unless my C is named Mauer, i wouldn't keep one. McCann is ok, but i think we've seen his best years.
With no Hamilton, i would keep Beckham, then keep McCutchen/JJ over McCann/Hanson.
I think Hanson would be the easist to re-draft anyways.
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HOOTIE wrote:Pujols/Kinsler/Longoria/Sandoval i agree on. My other 3 are
Hamilton McCutchen Johnson
I know i won't sway you, but that's what i would do. I'm a huge Hamilton fan. I think healthy, he's the 08 Hamilton. He's working with Texas strengh and conditioning coach this off season, to address his past injuries. A few Rangers remarked before, outside of Pujols/Arod, Hamilton has the most given talent in MLB.
But let's forget Hamilton, you won't keep him.
J Johnson is a beast. Hanson is nice, but JJ has the more established track record.
Beckham is nice, but his oba is a bit low. I love McCutchen as a poor mans Kemp, 20/40 certaintly possible.
Unless my C is named Mauer, i wouldn't keep one. McCann is ok, but i think we've seen his best years.
With no Hamilton, i would keep Beckham, then keep McCutchen/JJ over McCann/Hanson.
I think Hanson would be the easist to re-draft anyways.
Thanks for the insight. Knowing my league mates I think Hamilton will be the easiest to re-draft, which also factors into my decision to not keep him. I do like his natural talent, and would have a much easier time swallowing drafting him as opposed to keeping him (though that's almost splitting hairs).
Johnson over Hanson is of interest to me, as the thought has crossed my mind. That said, there are a few owners with top 5 picks which I suspect would use their pick on Hanson. I think Hanson's k potential exceeds Johnson's by a decent margin. I love Johnson's GB rate though, and he's a horse. That said I think Hanson's ceiling is a top 5 fantasy starter (his Winter league numbers and Triple-A numbers and it's not like he disappointed in his big league debut). I think Johnson's ceiling was illustrated last year, and considering his long term future doesn't appear to be in Florida, I do have some concerns about a deal to the AL hurting his K-rate and possibly overall line (especially since Texas was rumored to have interest).
McCutchen is another guy I think I can get back via the draft, probably even with my second round selection, especially over Beckham given position scarcity. Last year's draft showed me that a ton of owners were more concerned with filling scarce positions then getting the best talent (SS/2B and C's flew off the board quick).
Curious what your take is on dealing Kinsler and a last round selection for a 1st and 2nd rounder? Good chance with my 4 picks in the first two rounds (the two I hypothetically deal for and my two) I could get a combination of Johnson/Jimenez/McCutchen/Hamilton/Brett Anderson (whom I also love in this format given age k-rate,ballpark, GB rate, etc). So is a combination of two of those players greater then Kinsler? I feel like it is.
fang wrote:Skeptical of Sandoval but not of Hamilton?
I mainly don't trust his skillset to keep up the with the level he has played at the last 2 years. Can he continue to play at this level, yes especially with his offseason conditioning much improved this offseason, but before I throw somebody away with the skill set of Hamilton, I just want to see Sandoval do it one more time.
I don't think Sandoval will repeat this past season... but that said I think he's a .310-.315 hitter with 25 maybe even 30 HR pop. Considering the league setup, a guy that hits .310-.315 and rips doubles galore (as well as hitting more singles then say a .280-.290 hitter) and doesn't strike out much for a slugger holds more value then a 5x5 and it can easily be lost on those not playing in this format. That said, McCutchen's speed and ability to leg out triples is pretty intriguing. I am beginning to give more consideration to keeping him, the biggest thing holding me back is that I believe he'll be valued less then the other potential keepers I'd be tossing back.
I can almost assure that if I toss McCann back I won't be able to select him at the end of round 1. That said, I am somewhat warming up to the idea of tossing him back in favor of Josh Johnson or McCutchen. It has nothing to do with my valuations of McCann (which I think quite highly of him) and more to do with the fact I think coupling a steady hitter like Kurt Suzuki and drafting a stud prospect (Santana or Posey) can produce similar results.
As for Hamilton, his natural talent is undeniable. What is also undeniable is his contact rate dropping and his hacking increasing, which is a disturbing trend coupled with his potential injury risk. Definitely not a headache I want to keep, but one I'd consider drafting at the right price (top of the 2nd seems about right). At the same time, judging by the responses suggesting keeping him, it appears unlikely he'll even last until my first round pick (end of the first). At the same time, if I deal Kinsler for picks it seems that Hamilton would be a worthwhile gamble with the multiple early picks.
Keep the responses coming, and leave some links, I love throwing in my two cents.
Not to linger on Hamilton, because he's out of the equation, but, don't you agree his bb body is relatively young, since he didn't play 2 years? As far as last years numbers, it was only a half a season worth a stats. I'm just throwing this out there. Could have he had pressed, and swung at those pitches, because he knew he was injured, and thought he had to try harder?
Does it concern you Pablo probably moves to 1B? Next year he could lose 3B eligiblity in some formats. I don't like Pablo if he goes to 1B.
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and it's not like he disappointed in his big league debut). I think Johnson's ceiling was illustrated last year, and considering his long term future doesn't appear to be in Florida, I do have some concerns about a deal to the AL hurting his K-rate and possibly overall line (especially since Texas was rumored to have interest). 
