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My 2010 Hitter Rankings

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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby TribeIn2012 » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:04 pm

fast dogs wrote:Nice lists, I think we have a record for the most thought going into an initial post!
Only really out of whack 1 I see is Nelson Cruz, that avg just doesn't deserve that lofty ranking; I would have gone higher on Hill & S Drew


I admit to being high on Cruz, probably higher than most. I think he is a lock for 30+ home runs and 15+ stolen bases with a good chance of hitting 40/20. I would take a gamble on him rather than selecting somebody like a Nick Markakis, Bobby Abreu or even Carlos Beltran.

I'm also not the kind of guy that drafts Aaron Hill. Sometimes that bites me in the butt, but I am not going to pay for his 36 home runs when he hit 2 the year before. Before his 2009 season he had a career OPS+ of under 100. I think he puts up a line similar to his 2007 #s. I would take him at the right spot but not where I think he will be taken. I have seen people putting him as the #3 2B in 2010. Not a chance I even consider taking him over a proven 2B like Pedroia, Phillips, Cano or Roberts. But again, that is just me.
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby TribeIn2012 » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:11 pm

B-Chad wrote:Welcome ;-D With posts like this you should have been a poster long before and not just a spectator :-b I won't address everything in this post, as there is a lot to dissect, but a couple things I want to mention in the short term.

I think Montero is way too low at catcher. I actually have him in front of Posada in my own rankings and behind Wieters (like your top 4 as they match mine to a "T"). He had a nice 2nd half, and given that he has a solid pedigree, he isn't exactly an "out of nowhere," type.

I would probably move Mike Napoli down. I love his skills, but the fact Scioscia seems to like to play Mathis strong defense no stick behind the dish a ton hurts Nap's value. What hurts his value even more is the signing of Hideki Matsui as he won't likely be DH'ing at all this year unless Matsui gets hurt, which means his days off behind the dish will be true days off, not days DH'ing.

Finally, I see Michael Cuddyer listed at 2B. I'm wondering if this was an error, or if your league format awards players position eligibility based on just one appearance? If one appearance is the only requirement, I guess I'm curious why Pablo Sandoval isn't listed as a catcher.


Fair enough on the catching situation. I have tinkered with moving Montero up in my rankings before your reply, but I think top 5 would be way too high for me to take him. I would take a "safe' bet like Posada or B. Molina at catcher even though Montero has more upside. But thats why everyone has there own different rankings.

Also thanks for reminding me of the Matsui signing as you are right it could take PA's away from Napoli. I did Napoli's projection way before the Matsui signing. Something for me to consider.

And finally Cuddyer at 2B is an error on my part. For whatever reason I thought he had 5 games at 2B and I even looked it up to safe, but I guess I was reading what I wanted to see !+)
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby Ballpark Frank » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:22 pm

Good teaser material to help get me back into baseball mode.

I'm curious to hear your (and others) thoughts on Josh Hamilton and his high ranking. I was burned last year, so I admit to being a "disliker" for lack of a better term. In plotting out the players likely to be available where I pick in our keeper draft....bam...there's Hamilton again. Are people really comfortable taking him as a top 11 OF'er and in the 30-40 range overall? There are few players that scare me more than Hamilton, but maybe some of you can convince me that last years laundry list of in injuries was just a fluke.
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby TribeIn2012 » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:59 pm

Ballpark Frank wrote:Good teaser material to help get me back into baseball mode.

I'm curious to hear your (and others) thoughts on Josh Hamilton and his high ranking. I was burned last year, so I admit to being a "disliker" for lack of a better term. In plotting out the players likely to be available where I pick in our keeper draft....bam...there's Hamilton again. Are people really comfortable taking him as a top 11 OF'er and in the 30-40 range overall? There are few players that scare me more than Hamilton, but maybe some of you can convince me that last years laundry list of in injuries was just a fluke.


I would be gun shy to draft him this year, especially if I owned him last year. The thing about Hamilton is, when he is on the field he is one of the better hitters in all of baseball. Factor in the ballpark he calls home and that lineup he hits in the middle of, if he can play in 130+ games he is in for a monster year. His career totals sit at .292/.356/.508 and I think you can expect somewhere around those totals this year. I have him down at .281/86/30/93/9.
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby DaSh 1s » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:01 pm

That 3B pool is rather shallow... what are everyone's thoughts on Michael Young this year?
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby Ballpark Frank » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:13 pm

TribeIn2012 wrote:
Ballpark Frank wrote:Good teaser material to help get me back into baseball mode.

I'm curious to hear your (and others) thoughts on Josh Hamilton and his high ranking. I was burned last year, so I admit to being a "disliker" for lack of a better term. In plotting out the players likely to be available where I pick in our keeper draft....bam...there's Hamilton again. Are people really comfortable taking him as a top 11 OF'er and in the 30-40 range overall? There are few players that scare me more than Hamilton, but maybe some of you can convince me that last years laundry list of in injuries was just a fluke.


I would be gun shy to draft him this year, especially if I owned him last year. The thing about Hamilton is, when he is on the field he is one of the better hitters in all of baseball. Factor in the ballpark he calls home and that lineup he hits in the middle of, if he can play in 130+ games he is in for a monster year. His career totals sit at .292/.356/.508 and I think you can expect somewhere around those totals this year. I have him down at .281/86/30/93/9.


Solid numbers for sure, but "gun shy" would be a good way to describe it - especially if you can get a safer pick like Markakis, CLee, Manny, etc., in the same neighborhood.

I like where you've slotted Wieters. For whatever reason, most of the early rankings seem to have him lower. It'll be interesting to see what his overall ADP ends up being towards the end of Spring Training. He still seems to have the hype pricetag that'll cost you dearly on draft day. What are you expectations/projections for Wieters? Curious to also know where people feel comfortable drafting him (overall adp)?
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby B-Chad » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:33 pm

TribeIn2012 wrote:
B-Chad wrote:Welcome ;-D With posts like this you should have been a poster long before and not just a spectator :-b I won't address everything in this post, as there is a lot to dissect, but a couple things I want to mention in the short term.

I think Montero is way too low at catcher. I actually have him in front of Posada in my own rankings and behind Wieters (like your top 4 as they match mine to a "T"). He had a nice 2nd half, and given that he has a solid pedigree, he isn't exactly an "out of nowhere," type.

I would probably move Mike Napoli down. I love his skills, but the fact Scioscia seems to like to play Mathis strong defense no stick behind the dish a ton hurts Nap's value. What hurts his value even more is the signing of Hideki Matsui as he won't likely be DH'ing at all this year unless Matsui gets hurt, which means his days off behind the dish will be true days off, not days DH'ing.

Finally, I see Michael Cuddyer listed at 2B. I'm wondering if this was an error, or if your league format awards players position eligibility based on just one appearance? If one appearance is the only requirement, I guess I'm curious why Pablo Sandoval isn't listed as a catcher.


Fair enough on the catching situation. I have tinkered with moving Montero up in my rankings before your reply, but I think top 5 would be way too high for me to take him. I would take a "safe' bet like Posada or B. Molina at catcher even though Montero has more upside. But thats why everyone has there own different rankings.

I would agree with Posade being a safer pick (outside of injury risk), but not Bengie. Keep in mind that Bengie's counting numbers were definitely helped by hitting in the heart of the Giants order. I see no way he hits in the heart of any other order which in turn will hurt his counting numbers.

Also thanks for reminding me of the Matsui signing as you are right it could take PA's away from Napoli. I did Napoli's projection way before the Matsui signing. Something for me to consider.

And finally Cuddyer at 2B is an error on my part. For whatever reason I thought he had 5 games at 2B and I even looked it up to safe, but I guess I was reading what I wanted to see !+)
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby TribeIn2012 » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:25 pm

Ballpark Frank wrote:
TribeIn2012 wrote:
Ballpark Frank wrote:
Solid numbers for sure, but "gun shy" would be a good way to describe it - especially if you can get a safer pick like Markakis, CLee, Manny, etc., in the same neighborhood.

I like where you've slotted Wieters. For whatever reason, most of the early rankings seem to have him lower. It'll be interesting to see what his overall ADP ends up being towards the end of Spring Training. He still seems to have the hype pricetag that'll cost you dearly on draft day. What are you expectations/projections for Wieters? Curious to also know where people feel comfortable drafting him (overall adp)?


I have Wieters down for .305/63/19/83/0 wich is pretty darn good for a catcher. I have him as my 71st hitter overall. I am working on my pitching rankings but it looks like he will be somewhere around 110 on my overall board.
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby kab21 » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:33 pm

While I won't disagree with someone putting Hill at the end of the 2B tier that will get drafted (rds 3-7ish) I do disagree about your analysis of him.

I had him pegged as a pretty good breakout player going into '08 but he suffered a pretty bad injury that year. and it doesn't really matter what his OPS+ is since that isn't a category in my league. He had shown an ability to hit for high avg (.290's) and in '07 had 47 2B's and 17 HR's which indicate that he had good power before his breakout last year. everyone would be foolish to expect 36 HR's again but I'll put him down for 25. Debating whether or not he should be drafted ahead of Cano, Roberts, Pedroia, etc... is another debate.
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Re: My 2010 Hitter Rankings

Postby kab21 » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:53 pm

A couple of comments - I like it overall and it's definitely going to help

Montero is much higher on my list like others have said (maybe not #5 but much higher). I also like Soto as a good value buy this year.

I wouldn't move Rolen up to much but I can see him being Chipper Jones-lite in the NL in the bandbox. Excellent production when he can stay on the field. Chris davis also presents a ranking conundrum this year since he was last year's most debated player.

At this point I think Everth > Orlando. At least Orlando is way too high since it's possible that he doesn't even get a starting job.

Alfonso Soriano at #42 on the OF'er list is interesting. I don't even know what to think of that. It just jumps out to me (not wrong or right, just interesting).

Guys like Snider, Laporta and Reimold are much higher on my OF list. Too many zero upside guys or platoon guys ahead of them. I'm an especially big fan of Snider this year considering where he'll be drafted.
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