12-team League, 6 keepers, Normal 5x5 plus (1B,2B,3B,SO,BB; HLD,CG,BB,IP)
First inclination is to keep my top 6 bats (Fielder, Kinsler, McCann, Sizemore, Hamilton, Holliday) and focus on pitching in my draft. I also have 1st pick in my draft so essentially I can keep any 7 I want. Should I bump any of those hitters out for CC, Johan or Kershaw?
Hitters: Prince Fielder Ian Kinsler Jhonny Peralta Ian Stewart Brian McCann Grady Sizemore Josh Hamilton Matt Holliday Matt Diaz Billy Butler Nick Swisher
SP CC Sabathia Johan Santana Clayton Kershaw Jair Jurrjens Scott Kazmir Ubaldo Jiminez Gavin Floyd
With options like C.C. and Johan I wouldn't take the risk on Hamilton. He was nicked up all year and given his unique circumstances (i.e. hard drug use) he may be an injury risk for his entire career. I also didn't like how poor he looked against breaking balls last year (something supported by fangraphs and not just my eyes). Having a staff ace gives you the flexibility to take the best available with the top pick. Depending on what is tossed back that could be C.C. but I'd be curious to see who is tossed back as a strong 3B would be a nice haul as well.
Why in the world would you not take McCann but you would take Hamilton? McCann is just as good of a hitter if not better and plays at a position with a lot less depth. Look at Fangraph's projections.
HOOTIE wrote:Hamilton imo has great talent. I discount last years numbers do to his injuries.
While I agree Hamilton has great talent, doesn't it seem a little silly to completely discount last years numbers do to injury since it essentially equates to 1/3 of his playing career? He also missed time with the Reds in his rookie season, and has a history of drug abuse which may or may not cause him to be injury prone the remainder of his career, or worse yet, may cause a quicker erosion of his immense talent. Hamilton is a unique case, though not entirely unique as Doc Gooden and Daryl Strawberry were also immense talents who's drug use/abuse hurt their respective careers. I also don't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility he relapses as his embarassing drunk photos that surfaced this year bring to light. I hate to be a cynic, but hard drugs are addictive and there is a reason people have a hard time entirely kicking them and relapse.
All that said, even if he stays healthy, pitchers approached Hamilton significantly slightly different last year offering him fewer fastballs (roughly one percent fewer from 2008, but more significantly about 6.5 percent fewer then his rookie campaign). As the book gets around and it becomes evident that he's not nearly as effective against ANY off-speed offering as he is against fastballs one has to wonder how many he'll actually see. It's also disturbing that each passing season has seen both Hamilton's outside zone swing and zone swing increase while his contact rate decreases (O-swing in order from '07-'09: 26.9/34.7/36.1; Z-Swing '07-'09: 76.7/80.6/85.7; contact rates '07-'09: 76.9/74.1/72.1). Those are disturbing trends as they'll certainly coincide with a higher K-rate and lower walk rate.
I'm also curious as to why you're so dismissive of Brian McCann? The guy plays an offensively devoid position and is a solid bet for 20-25 HR's, 100+ RBI's and a BA of .280+ from a position where you don't see that type of production. Hamilton is a talented OF amongst a group of many with what appears to be some skill deterioration and health concerns (among others).
I don't know anyone at the Cafe but there are quite a few guys I enjoy reading their posts. B Chad is 1 of those. Still trying to figure out this 1 tho "pitchers approached Hamilton significantly slightly different " I guess I view catchers as a huge injury risk even tho not that many get seriously hurt each year. It just takes 1 misplaced foul ball for bad things to happen. I never seem to get over that when considering keepers Hamilton could put up 150 RBI's or 50; theres a big risk involved there that you don't need to take with similiar alternatives. You have CC & Santana both top 50 draft picks themselves that I wouldn't hesitate to retain. You could go 5 hitters & 1 ace, but those are 2 of the nicest arms to build a team around Fielder Kinsler Holliday Sizemore CC Johan and you are all set to draft more hitting
fast dogs wrote:I don't know anyone at the Cafe but there are quite a few guys I enjoy reading their posts. B Chad is 1 of those. Still trying to figure out this 1 tho "pitchers approached Hamilton significantly slightly different " I guess I view catchers as a huge injury risk even tho not that many get seriously hurt each year. It just takes 1 misplaced foul ball for bad things to happen. I never seem to get over that when considering keepers Hamilton could put up 150 RBI's or 50; theres a big risk involved there that you don't need to take with similiar alternatives. You have CC & Santana both top 50 draft picks themselves that I wouldn't hesitate to retain. You could go 5 hitters & 1 ace, but those are 2 of the nicest arms to build a team around Fielder Kinsler Holliday Sizemore CC Johan and you are all set to draft more hitting
Oops, I meant to delete the significant and just leave slightly after checking fangraphs stats , lol . That said, I can see your concern with catchers, as I've had the same concerns in the past, and Chris Snyder's "unfortunate" injury is certainly proof of the damage an ill placed foul ball can cause. Your keepers would be a reasonable alternative to those I listed IMO. I just don't think the risk of Hamilton outweighs the reward with other solid options such as McCann/Santana/Sabathia. Believe me, I've looked for reasons to keep Hamilton in my most serious league (7 keepers, 12 teams, thus 84 players kept) and the more I dig, the less I see I like. Oh well. To each their own opinion.
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by Box » Sun Dec 27, 2009 6:54 pm 
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. That said, I can see your concern with catchers, as I've had the same concerns in the past, and Chris Snyder's "unfortunate" injury is certainly proof of the damage an ill placed foul ball can cause. Your keepers would be a reasonable alternative to those I listed IMO. I just don't think the risk of Hamilton outweighs the reward with other solid options such as McCann/Santana/Sabathia. Believe me, I've looked for reasons to keep Hamilton in my most serious league (7 keepers, 12 teams, thus 84 players kept) and the more I dig, the less I see I like. Oh well. To each their own opinion.
