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SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby DaSh 1s » Thu Dec 24, 2009 1:28 am

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/b ... ?eref=sihp

Some big time names on that list. But apparently High School product Casey Kelly's 95 IP MiLB has landed him as the overall top 14th prospect in all of baseball, according to the opinion of this guy. lol.

His 45 innings of Double AA warranted him Greinke comparisons already? I have been clamoring all off-season that this is the most over-hyped prospect I have seen in a while. Drabek landed Doc, but Kelly was untouchable? I mean over Drabek and, my main man, Alcides? The author is smoking something!!!
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby BaseballProf » Thu Dec 24, 2009 6:39 am

DaSh 1s wrote:His 45 innings of Double AA warranted him Greinke comparisons already? I have been clamoring all off-season that this is the most over-hyped prospect I have seen in a while. Drabek landed Doc, but Kelly was untouchable? I mean over Drabek and, my main man, Alcides? The author is smoking something!!!


First I will note that it is tough to call him overhyped by the same logic you use because he only has 45 IP of Advanced A ball. If you look at their minor league numbers in their first seasons of Adv-A ball, Greinke did outperform Kelly, but much of that can be attributed to Kelly not having pitched much in months after spending the first 40 games of the '09 season as a hitter. All the guy is saying is that his approach and pitch quality are comparable to Greinke. I will admit, however, that he is listed at 14 solely because of his immense potential as he is in my opinion the most raw top-tier prospect in baseball.

This is not a slight to Drabek who is listed behind him. It is nearly impossible to rank players with such varying degrees of talent and experience, however it is generally agreed that Kelly has a higher ceiling, albeit a lower floor.

If you would like, here are the links to Kelly and Greinke's minor league resumes:

Kelly: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... lly-001cas
Greinke: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... eink001don
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby bigken117 » Thu Dec 24, 2009 8:40 am

DaSh 1s wrote:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/23/top.prospects/index.html?eref=sihp

Some big time names on that list. But apparently High School product Casey Kelly's 95 IP MiLB has landed him as the overall top 14th prospect in all of baseball, according to the opinion of this guy. lol.

His 45 innings of Double AA warranted him Greinke comparisons already? I have been clamoring all off-season that this is the most over-hyped prospect I have seen in a while. Drabek landed Doc, but Kelly was untouchable? I mean over Drabek and, my main man, Alcides? The author is smoking something!!!


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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Thu Dec 24, 2009 8:40 am

BaseballProf wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:His 45 innings of Double AA warranted him Greinke comparisons already? I have been clamoring all off-season that this is the most over-hyped prospect I have seen in a while. Drabek landed Doc, but Kelly was untouchable? I mean over Drabek and, my main man, Alcides? The author is smoking something!!!


First I will note that it is tough to call him overhyped by the same logic you use because he only has 45 IP of Advanced A ball. If you look at their minor league numbers in their first seasons of Adv-A ball, Greinke did outperform Kelly, but much of that can be attributed to Kelly not having pitched much in months after spending the first 40 games of the '09 season as a hitter. All the guy is saying is that his approach and pitch quality are comparable to Greinke. I will admit, however, that he is listed at 14 solely because of his immense potential as he is in my opinion the most raw top-tier prospect in baseball.

This is not a slight to Drabek who is listed behind him. It is nearly impossible to rank players with such varying degrees of talent and experience, however it is generally agreed that Kelly has a higher ceiling, albeit a lower floor.

If you would like, here are the links to Kelly and Greinke's minor league resumes:

Kelly: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... lly-001cas
Greinke: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... eink001don

You're wasting your time if you're trying to reason with Dash in terms of Sox players or prospects...
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby DaSh 1s » Thu Dec 24, 2009 10:34 am

RedSoxNation04 wrote:You're wasting your time if you're trying to reason with Dash in terms of Sox players or prospects...


Not true at all, I have been pretty unbiased about most things. I am a big MiLB guy. Just unbiased about everything except, my buddy, Casey Kelly. :-b Just such a small sample size, made him to valuable for some of the trades, that really puzzled me. Theo should just fleece Moyer right now and receive the benefits before its too late!

Speaking of Greinke's MiLB career, does anyone know how his SL was ranked coming up, or if it was considered a Plus-Pitch at the time? Or if he even threw it? I remember his CB was his best pitch his rookie year. But his SL now is pretty different from when he first was called up. That pitch really came on for him in the last two years.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby BaseballProf » Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:05 am

DaSh 1s wrote:Speaking of Greinke's MiLB career, does anyone know how his SL was ranked coming up, or if it was considered a Plus-Pitch at the time? Or if he even threw it? I remember his CB was his best pitch his rookie year. But his SL now is pretty different from when he first was called up. That pitch really came on for him in the last two years.


I'm speaking off the cuff here, but I think he added that slider once he returned from his depression issues, so yeah you're correct.

As for the way Theo values Kelly, he can only work off the sample size Kelly has provided since it's his first season as a pitcher. What do you want him to do, not value him because he hasn't seen him? You have to draw conclusions off the evidence you have, and while Kelly doesn't have a large body of work, Theo and the Red Sox brass believes what they see is too valuable to trade at this moment. Think of it this way as well; because he has such a small body of work perhaps they want to wait and reserve judgement on him, and what better way to increase the value of a player with a short resume than to declare him the future of your rotation and untradeable, especially if the scouting reports and his early returns seem to justify your argument?
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby DaSh 1s » Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:16 am

BaseballProf wrote: what better way to increase the value of a player with a short resume than to declare him the future of your rotation and untradeable, especially if the scouting reports and his early returns seem to justify your argument?


All the other stuff is definitely a given, but you basically summed up my entire pet peeve with him in your last line. :-)
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby thedude » Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:26 am

"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby Grounded Polo » Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:28 am

Apart from Kelly, the rest of the top 20 is fine to me really, don't agree with all of it but not that outlandish.
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Re: SI's Top 20 Prospects

Postby thedude » Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:30 am

DaSh 1s wrote:His 45 innings of Double AA warranted him Greinke comparisons already? I have been clamoring all off-season that this is the most over-hyped prospect I have seen in a while. Drabek landed Doc, but Kelly was untouchable? I mean over Drabek and, my main man, Alcides? The author is smoking something!!!


But who has pitched more MiLB innings Kelly or Strasburg? Yet you have no problem with ranking Strasburg first? You should respond because it is obvious that Strasburg will an amazing pitcher. Well the same principle applies to Casey Kelly.
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