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Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby kellythemick » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:56 am

Elite skills masked by aberrant hr/f, S%, BPV, xERA tell the true story. The closest '09 comp for this extreme GB, Power profile? Some guy named Broxton. Similarly, with the opportunity ... UP: Broxton-esque save totals.

Baseball Forecaster 2010 writeup on League

Four reasons to be skeptical:
1.Gap between ERA and xERA
2.Favorable '09h% and s%
3.Extreme fly-ball split
4.History of control problems
2H Cmd a step, but this is not a stud-closer profile. Caution.

Baseball Forecaster 2010 writeup on Aardsma
Hmm?
If it's obvious it's probably true.
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby mweir145 » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:42 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
kellythemick wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:I just heard "confirmation" that the prospect is Yohermyn Chavez. :-°
Speculation on the radio this morning was that it was either Wallace or Ricky Romero which would have made the trade a big loss for the Jays imo. Now I like the deal. I have had it with League and didn't want to see him anywhere near the bullpen for next year, so I'm a happy man today.

Next steps. Try to get value for Overpay and Downs. See if someone will take over Wells' contract.

A middle of the order of Hill, Lind and Snider will look pretty good in 2012 as will a rotation of McGowan, Litsch, Romero, Drabek and Marcum. Frasor is not the answer at closer and Gathright is not a leadoff man but the picture is getting clearer than it was under JP.

So you see Morrow taking over for Frasor? Moving on?



Who knows? The Jays are trying like hell to trade Accardo and Downs. If this happens and barring any other offseason moves Frasor is the closer but Morrow will likely get a shot if he is healthy and Frasor falters. But there is still so much time for other moves to change this.

There is no question that the Jays acquired Morrow to be a starting pitcher. It might be wishful thinking to believe he could actually be above-average in this area, but Anthopoulos is betting on the upside.

Otherwise, the deal makes no sense, as League is already a very good reliever (his elite K/GB skills are superior to anything Morrow has ever done in that capacity). The closer on a 70 win team isn't really something that management should be concerned about. Preferably, they'd fill the bullpen cheaply, so Frasor, Downs, and Accardo might all be on the move in the next few months.
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby silverZ » Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:19 am

Makes perfect sense to me. Even if Morrow can't last as a starter he has the stuff to be a dominating setup man/closer. Plus he's under control for longer I think? The only way I see this turning into a bad deal is if Morrow can't stay healthy.

Is there any history of guys with his type of diabetes having productive careers?
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby mweir145 » Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:24 am

silverZ wrote:Makes perfect sense to me. Even if Morrow can't last as a starter he has the stuff to be a dominating setup man/closer. Plus he's under control for longer I think? The only way I see this turning into a bad deal is if Morrow can't stay healthy.

1 year longer. Really the only way it could turn into a bad deal for the Jays is if Chavez becomes a productive major leaguer, but that's an incredible long shot. The minors are littered with guys who performed well in low A ball but never advanced to the majors.
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby silverZ » Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:29 am

mweir145 wrote:
silverZ wrote:Makes perfect sense to me. Even if Morrow can't last as a starter he has the stuff to be a dominating setup man/closer. Plus he's under control for longer I think? The only way I see this turning into a bad deal is if Morrow can't stay healthy.

1 year longer. Really the only way it could turn into a bad deal for the Jays is if Chavez becomes a productive major leaguer, but that's an incredible long shot. The minors are littered with guys who performed well in low A ball but never advanced to the majors.


Completely agree. Chavez is far from anything special. I think this was a deal the Jays had to take every single time. I'm looking forward to seeing how League does in seattle. In safeco with that defense he could be very, very good this year. Then again Jays fans have been saying this for years. The turf/grass splits might make a big difference tho.
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:46 am

kab21 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:Wasn't Chavez Rule-5 eligible? Why not pick him up that way rather than trade for him???


Because you have to leave him on the MLB roster for the entire season. this way you can put him in the minors next season and then add him to the 40 man next offseason and give him 3 more development seasons in the minors (if needed) instead of wrecking his development.


Ok, but since he was in minor league A Ball wouldn't he of been eligible for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft?
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby kab21 » Wed Dec 23, 2009 1:30 pm

Havok1517 wrote:
kab21 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:Wasn't Chavez Rule-5 eligible? Why not pick him up that way rather than trade for him???


Because you have to leave him on the MLB roster for the entire season. this way you can put him in the minors next season and then add him to the 40 man next offseason and give him 3 more development seasons in the minors (if needed) instead of wrecking his development.


Ok, but since he was in minor league A Ball wouldn't he of been eligible for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft?


No, it's one of the problems with Latin players since they sign when they are 16 (as opposed to HS draftees) and in 5 years you have to go on the 40 man or be available in rule 5. The minor league portion is different somehow, most of those players are backups at the MiLB level.
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Dec 23, 2009 1:46 pm

kab21 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:Ok, but since he was in minor league A Ball wouldn't he of been eligible for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft?


No, it's one of the problems with Latin players since they sign when they are 16 (as opposed to HS draftees) and in 5 years you have to go on the 40 man or be available in rule 5. The minor league portion is different somehow, most of those players are backups at the MiLB level.


kab is right. I originally thought what you did too Havok, but since he signed at 16 and just completed his fourth minor league season, he was eligible for the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. He's so far away that it would have been a really bad use of a pick.
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:10 pm

mweir145 wrote:FWIW, Dave Cameron doesn't like it for the Mariners.

Update: Jordan Bastian, a reliable reporter from Toronto, reports that Johermyn Chavez is the prospect the M’s are getting. Chavez is Toronto’s version of Greg Halman – toolsy RH outfielder with power and terrible plate discipline, hit well repeating low-A ball as a 20-year-old last year. Upside, sure, but a long way from the majors and lots of flaws. If true, this is the first deal Jack has made that I truly dislike. Full analysis when its official.


I see why Dave doesn't like it, but Morrow is a hard guy to get a read on. For one, he's had some health issues (and the whole diabetic thing is never going away), has been wishy-washy in respect to his role (the previous regime is responsible for much of it but it was he who decided he wanted to be reliever last year before changing his mind again and going back to starting), and has no secondary pitches or control. He's only made 35 starts in 4 years in professional baseball, and made less than 25 in 3 years in college. He's got an arm for sure and a terrific fastball, but he's never been able to consistently get his slider over for strikes, let alone have anything resembling an ok third or fourth pitch. The strikeouts are nice, but the walks are pretty alarming (his low in college was 3.6/9 and it's remained 3.8 or higher through every stop of his professional career [excluding one game in A]).

It was pretty apparent going into the offseason that at best Seattle saw Morrow as competition for the #5 starter spot. Felix and RRS were set, and all along they've said they wanted to add two pitchers (Lee is one and I expect someone else - Sheets? Randy? Smoltz? - to be here soon). Snell and Morrow were basically set to take the last spot. League is already a good reliever, better than Morrow as a reliever right now, and Chavez is an interesting prospect. League could basically be this year's Aardsma, with the added advantage that he's an extreme groundballer. I think it's entirely possible that the M's just didn't see Morrow as contributing as a starter this year or ever, and wanted to get value for him while they still could.

The problem is that we (as M's fans) all thought Morrow's trade value would be higher. From the rumors that Milwaukee loved him to the rumored offer of Morrow for EJax, it seems like the return isn't as great as you'd think we would have gotten. Which brings us to the rumored conspiracy theories. The first one is that the M's specifically needed a reliever because it's setting up another deal. The second is interesting, but it's possible that it could be the last shoe to drop as part of the Halladay/Lee deal. There were some things that never really added up (Why is it being called a three team deal? Why is Toronto kicking in $6M? Why would the Phillies deal Lee to Seattle for three non-elite prospects instead of shopping him for something more?) that this could explain. Since MLB only gave Halladay a couple days to negotiate an extension, that part had to happen quickly. The Lee to Seattle piece was done as well. But maybe Toronto and Seattle had a handshake deal that they just had to finalize. I'm not sure that I believe it, but it does make some sense. We'll just have to wait and see what Jack says when it's all official and he talks about it.

Anyway, I guess I don't love it and I don't hate it. I thought we could get more for Morrow, but I trust that if this is just a straight swap that Jack exhausted every avenue available. He's too smart a guy not to have done that, and I have a lot of confidence in the job he's doing. I guess I'm just getting so used to him fleecing everyone that I have expected him to deal Morrow and Jose Lopez and a bag of balls for Albert Pujols. :-B :-b
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Re: Brandon Morrow To Blue Jays

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:13 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
kab21 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:Ok, but since he was in minor league A Ball wouldn't he of been eligible for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft?


No, it's one of the problems with Latin players since they sign when they are 16 (as opposed to HS draftees) and in 5 years you have to go on the 40 man or be available in rule 5. The minor league portion is different somehow, most of those players are backups at the MiLB level.


kab is right. I originally thought what you did too Havok, but since he signed at 16 and just completed his fourth minor league season, he was eligible for the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. He's so far away that it would have been a really bad use of a pick.


I disagree. They could have drafted him, owned the rights to him, and potentially worked out a trade with the Blue Jays to send him down. Bird in hand.
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