hardyworld wrote:Knowing how the populous values/drafts players is much more important than my own player evaluation system.
Problem is it takes only 1 guy in your league to throw a wrench in that thinking. If you expect a player you really want will fall another couple rounds because that's "typically" where he is drafted you could get screwed out of a few guys you really want. I draft based on my own sheet, I play my own hand(in poker terms), and try not to fall into the trap of guessing what other people will do. You should know going in which few guys you are really high on or really low on and draft accordingly for those handful of guys but for the most part, "play your own hand"!
I agree and disagree. When looking who to pick for my next pick, I always try to target 2-4 players that I would be perfectly happy to have (according to my evaluation system). Say half of the players I target in a given draft are MY "buy low candidates", in a 20 round draft, that is 30 players. One team cannot draft a significant portion of those 30 players; therefore, one guy cannot throw a wrench in my draft. Given that everyone has different team/draft strategies and evaluation systems, it would require at least 3 committed players to force me to change my strategy mid-draft (rare occurrence). If 3 or more people in a draft are consistently taking MY "buy low candidates", then several players that I may have thought their ADPs are too early drop down to where I'd like to take them. I've had this happen to me before, and I love taking players that drop much further than normal in a draft; I think it's a good problem to have. I've had a lot of success drafting this way, but the only way this will work for you is if you are willing to be flexible.
I'm a big believer in only taking a player if you believe he'll be gone in your next draft pick. This strategy has worked for me for over 10 years, but I'm not going to tell you that this system will work for you.
Last edited by hardyworld on Tue Jan 19, 2010 10:01 am, edited 4 times in total.