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2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 3/25/10

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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby Timgeorge2 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 8:09 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Updated ;-D

Happy New Year all.


I think this is the most valuable tool on the web. As others have said, it's a great way to establish a baseline value for players. I'm a guy that really gets into the value aspect of the game, probably more than most. I always appreciate your work. I sent you a small donation through PayPal and I'd encourage others to do the same. Thanks for your work!
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Jan 01, 2010 9:15 pm

Timgeorge2 wrote:
rookies and cream wrote:Updated ;-D

Happy New Year all.


I think this is the most valuable tool on the web. As others have said, it's a great way to establish a baseline value for players. I'm a guy that really gets into the value aspect of the game, probably more than most. I always appreciate your work. I sent you a small donation through PayPal and I'd encourage others to do the same. Thanks for your work!


Thanks Tim. Much appreciated. ;-D
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby DaSh 1s » Fri Jan 01, 2010 9:30 pm

After owning Adam Lind in 6 leagues last year, I am a enormous Lind fan... his three homer game in the fantasy championship week still has me :-L

I would love to own him next year, but man his MDP is pretty high... is Lind now considered "never pay for a career year" fantasy players?
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby Timgeorge2 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:06 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:After owning Adam Lind in 6 leagues last year, I am a enormous Lind fan... his three homer game in the fantasy championship week still has me :-L

I would love to own him next year, but man his MDP is pretty high... is Lind now considered "never pay for a career year" fantasy players?


Lind is a bit tough to rank. I remember sitting at my draft in the 23rd round and mulling over Kendry Morales vs Adam Lind. I was really high on Morales going into last year (really I was) so I went with Morales. Both guys were OF eligible last year. Little did I know that both guys would end up being as good as they were. Needless to say, neither guy will be available that late this year.

I doubt I have Lind on any of my teams this year. I very rarely take an OF in the early-mid rounds. I either land a stud or wait around to get some late round bargains that are almost always there. If he were to slide way lower than he should slide, I'd take a look at him, but I doubt that happens. He certainly had a great year last season as a 25-26 year old. A .300+ average and 35 HRs certainly means that he becomes a player that has shoved his way into the top of the rankings when we're talking about outfielders.

He had a great season, but there is that fear that last year was a bit of a fluke.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby SAV » Sat Jan 02, 2010 12:39 pm

Newbe... what's difference in ADP and MDP?
Thank you!
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:14 pm

SAV wrote:Newbe... what's difference in ADP and MDP?


Just a different measure of central tendency. Reasons for using median instead of mean (average) are described in the first post as well as this article: http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2009 ... eport1.php
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby shuggoth » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:21 pm

One of the things I am really watching with this list is the Standard Deviation. The lower the standard deviation the higher the probability that the player will be drafted at that spot in any individual draft. The higher Standard Deviation players (like D Lee or Chris Carpenter) are players that a lot of people disagree on. Cuddyer is probably the poster boy for this right now. He might go as early as 52 or as late as 132 within an average draft done now. I wonder how many drafts this spreadsheet represents.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby rookies and cream » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:45 pm

shuggoth wrote:One of the things I am really watching with this list is the Standard Deviation. The lower the standard deviation the higher the probability that the player will be drafted at that spot in any individual draft. The higher Standard Deviation players (like D Lee or Chris Carpenter) are players that a lot of people disagree on. Cuddyer is probably the poster boy for this right now. He might go as early as 52 or as late as 132 within an average draft done now. I wonder how many drafts this spreadsheet represents.


The standard deviation that I list refers to the variability in ADP's between sites, not within them. Basically, at this point it represents the difference between couchmanagers and mockdraftcentral since those are the only two sites that now list ADPs. If players have high SD's, that probably means that the sites disagree on how to rank them, since ranking largely determine where players will be drafted. The SD that I list does not represent the probability that a player will be drafted at an individual spot, as that can only be calculated after knowing the ADP and standard deviations at each of the individual sites. If I had access to these data, I could certainly do what you suggest but unfortunately I don't. I also don't have access to the number of drafts taken into account to calculate ADP. If I did, I would probably place different weights on ADP's from site to site.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby shuggoth » Wed Jan 06, 2010 8:01 am

rookies and cream wrote:The standard deviation that I list refers to the variability in ADP's between sites, not within them. Basically, at this point it represents the difference between couchmanagers and mockdraftcentral since those are the only two sites that now list ADPs.


To be honest, I should have been expecting that. Looking at Mock Draft Central it is also the kind of product that they charge for. And even then you would just really have access to more data, not any kind of "volatility index." Cause I would love to have a list of players with high variation in their MDP. It would help shine a spotlight on certain players to watch during the bargain hunting in the middle and later rounds.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:32 am

Keep up the great work, R&C... I love this tool. I just left you a donation for all your hard work - thanks! Mike
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